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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024


The people in charge want the majority to be "struggling". They literally say that things need to get worse so that people will take all those shitty paying jobs that are perpetually open.
 
The people in charge want the majority to be "struggling". They literally say that things need to get worse so that people will take all those shitty paying jobs that are perpetually open.
Correct. The new wage slaves they’re importing are coming here for free benefits, not jobs so that plan didn’t work out for them.
 
June 26 (Reuters) - KPMG is laying off 5% of its U.S. employees after feeling the pinch of "economic headwinds, coupled with historically low attrition," a spokesperson for the Big Four accounting giant said on Monday.

The firm had over 39,000 employees in the U.S. at the end of its last fiscal year on Sept. 30.


 
DETROIT — Ford Motor
confirmed Monday it will carry out layoffs this week, primarily affecting engineering jobs in the U.S. and Canada, as the automaker seeks billions in cost-cutting measures as it restructures its business operations.

The job cuts are expected to affect all three of Ford’s business units: Ford Blue, its traditional internal combustion engine operations; Model e, its electric vehicle unit; and Ford Pro, its fleet service operations.


 
Jerome Powell / FED Reserve opinion of taming inflation = "This will take a while "... The longer it goes, the worse the end result will be.
______________
The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management.
In its midyear outlook, the British banking giant’s asset manager said recession warnings are “flashing red” for many economies, while fiscal and monetary policies are out of sync with stock and bond markets.
1687873566882.png

 
I wish JPOW would just hit us with a 20% rate hike.

I’d like to buy some cheap stonks.
I see a 'change" on the horizon... I'm not saying it will be a good change. It will be good for some and bad for the majority.
Keep your powder dry. The quality of a stonk may get better. A Cadillac, been well maintained but left on the side of the road with an empty gas tank. Like a Rescue Dog.
 
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DETROIT — Ford Motor
confirmed Monday it will carry out layoffs this week, primarily affecting engineering jobs in the U.S. and Canada, as the automaker seeks billions in cost-cutting measures as it restructures its business operations.

The job cuts are expected to affect all three of Ford’s business units: Ford Blue, its traditional internal combustion engine operations; Model e, its electric vehicle unit; and Ford Pro, its fleet service operations.


Hmmm wonder if this could have anything to do with it

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UBS intends to eventually reduce the total combined headcount by about 30%, or 35,000 people, with headcount at Credit Suisse currently at about 45,000, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. As many as 10,000 jobs would be cut if the Swiss domestic businesses of the two banks are merged.1 hour ago

 
About
Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell is an American attorney and investment banker who has served as the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve since 2018. Wikipedia

Born: 1953 (age 70 years), Washington, D.C.
Spouse: Elissa Leonard (m. 1985)

According to a Washington Post report, Jerome Powell's net worth ranges between $19.7 million and $55 million. The estimated net worth figures are based on Powell's financial disclosures. It is worth noting that the Post reported that Powell is the richest Fed Chair since 1948.

__________________________________________
So, at 70 years old and worth $40 million, Jerome is carrying out the "Great Reset" one month at a time. He has no motivation to eliminate inflation because his retirement fund is growing faster than inflation. Right before American's eyes.


 
LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — The number of visitors to Las Vegas is up more than 10% compared to last year, and a big part of that is coming from convention attendance.
tourism-up-10-in-las-vegas-as-conventions-build-attendance
Good article. After being "cooped up" for 3 years, people are paying more to get out and go. I am seeing more visitors to the National Parks. Watching the migration of people from the city to rural areas. How long will this trend last ?

The average hotel price on the Strip hit $194.66, while hotels downtown were an average of $108.25. Neither of those prices include resort fees.
Hotel rooms in Las Vegas averaged $183.40 in May. That’s slightly above prices in 2022, and $40 higher than prices before the pandemic, the LVCVA report showed.
 
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VMWare Las Vegas, 2023

No way I would attend another conference in San Francisco... apparently most others are of the same feeling...
You bring a valid point into the conversation. Some area's are not feeling a recession while other areas are feeling the blunt of it... Many, many factors are coming into play to divide America into regions. As some area's flood,other areas are having a drought. Some re-loaders here on this board can not find powder while in other areas the shelves are full of powder. Guy's here sent me seeds for my garden from other areas. some seeds failed while other's flourished.

Pay attention to regional developments. This is how the FED's tweek the inflation / cost of living / fuel prices.... They go heavily with numbers that favor their agenda.
Just like a game show... "Survey Says"

images
 
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Good article. After being "cooped up" for 3 years, people are paying more to get out and go. I am seeing more visitors to the National Parks. Watching the migration of people from the city to rural areas. How long will this trend last ?

The average hotel price on the Strip hit $194.66, while hotels downtown were an average of $108.25. Neither of those prices include resort fees.
Hotel rooms in Las Vegas averaged $183.40 in May. That’s slightly above prices in 2022, and $40 higher than prices before the pandemic, the LVCVA report showed.
Teamsters that work the convention industry (which by the way number over 6000 members) signed there best contract ever in the history of the industry.
The Teamsters that work for UPS just negotiated that all package cars under UPS control will now have climate control, i.e. heat and air conditioning.
 
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Teamsters that work the convention industry (which by the way number over 6000 members) signed there best contract ever in the history of the industry.
The Teamsters that work for UPS just negotiated that all package cars under UPS control will now have climate control, i.e. heat and air conditioning.
Here in Missoula, MT... They upgraded the homeless shelters to have air conditioning and a paved parking area...
As for me.... Property taxes went up 6%, no air conditioning in my house and I still travel in and out on a dusty, gravel road.
Just a few things to note during "The Great Reset"...
In defense of the Union Brothers.... Ask one of them what percent of the gross on the check actually makes it down to the bottom line, take home.
They are paying more than the illegal that came across the border a year ago.
 
At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession. But the so-called hard data such as nonfarm payrolls, first-time applications for unemployment benefits and housing starts, suggest the economy continues to grind along.

 
UBS intends to eventually reduce the total combined headcount by about 30%, or 35,000 people, with headcount at Credit Suisse currently at about 45,000, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. As many as 10,000 jobs would be cut if the Swiss domestic businesses of the two banks are merged.1 hour ago

Skynet is coming
 
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The reporter is attempting to inject something positive into his report. Unfortunately, the gains are simply due to inflation.
Looking at your personal purchasing .... How much is inflation going up ?
My grocery bill has gone up every month for the past 6 months. I can assure you, I am not buying more groceries. I'm buying more inflation.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. factory orders rise in May, fifth gain in past six months​


Jul 5, 2023 8:17 AM MDT

By Greg Robb
Orders up 0.3% in May, led by transportation
Orders for manufactured goods rose 0.3% in May, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. This is the fifth gain in the past six months.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal were expecting a 0.6% rise.
Durable-goods orders rose a revised 1.8% in May. That data is released ahead of the full report. Non-durable goods orders fell 1.2%.
Transportation orders had the biggest gain. Factory orders excluding auto and planes were down 0.5%.
Orders excluding defense were up 0.8%.
Orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, rose 0.7% in May, unrevised from the initial estimate. Shipments of this category were up 0.3%.
Stocks were lower in early trading on Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.88%.
-Greg Robb
1688568572776.png


 
More jobs at a lower pay scale. How's that going to work out with a 15% inflation rate

“Consumer-facing service industries had a strong June, aligning to push job creation higher than expected,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “But wage growth continues to ebb in these same industries, and hiring likely is cresting after a late-cycle surge.”
Companies with fewer than 50 employees were responsible for most of the job growth, adding 299,000 positions. Firms with more than 500 workers lost 8,000 jobs, while mid-size companies contributed 183,000.


 
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“Our biggest issue today is whether it starts in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year,” Aleman said.

“We’re still in the camp that we get a recession,” she said. “We think it’s been delayed, but not canceled.”

A “very, very large slowdown in employment growth” is expected for the second half of the year, he said.

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I don’t really know if we’ll have a real recession at this point.
 
I don’t really know if we’ll have a real recession at this point.
If the fed keeps QE and printing trillions of dollars, we won't have a recession, but we'll have a shitload of continued inflation.

Further destroying the middle class and anybody with savings.
 
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I don’t really know if we’ll have a real recession at this point.
Many people, both in the market and not in the market, lean that way. What I am seeing is this plan to "prolong" taming inflation. When any situation is prolongued over years and not months... It becomes the norm. When the largest contractor's in America start adding contract clauses that address inflation / material shortages / government regulation changes, that in itself will increase cost of projects which adds to inflation.
__________________________________

Jerome Powell:
“It’s going to take some time. Inflation has proven to be more persistent than we expected and not less,” Powell said. “Of course, if that day comes when that turns around, that’ll be great. But we don’t expect that.”

Washington CNN —
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted Tuesday that she had failed to anticipate how long high inflation would continue to plague American consumers as the Biden administration works to contain a mounting political liability.

Lael Brainard
Inflation is high, and it will take time and resolve to get it back down to 2 percent. We are determined to stay the course.1

suntzu1.jpg
 
Many people, both in the market and not in the market, lean that way. What I am seeing is this plan to "prolong" taming inflation. When any situation is prolongued over years and not months... It becomes the norm. When the largest contractor's in America start adding contract clauses that address inflation / material shortages / government regulation changes, that in itself will increase cost of projects which adds to inflation.
__________________________________

Jerome Powell:
“It’s going to take some time. Inflation has proven to be more persistent than we expected and not less,” Powell said. “Of course, if that day comes when that turns around, that’ll be great. But we don’t expect that.”

Washington CNN —
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted Tuesday that she had failed to anticipate how long high inflation would continue to plague American consumers as the Biden administration works to contain a mounting political liability.

Lael Brainard
Inflation is high, and it will take time and resolve to get it back down to 2 percent. We are determined to stay the course.1

suntzu1.jpg
I get everything you’re saying, but it’s just odd.

Even when the S&P dumped from $479 to $359, nothing went down in price and I really didn’t see any tightening of spending…anywhere. People are still buying up $300,000 starter homes.

The stimulus during the Great Recession led to a 10+ year bull run, and that wasn’t even 1 trillion dollars. Uncle sugar dumped 7.5 trillion on the world in the last 3 years.

I’ve been sitting on more cash than I should be ready to buy up tangible items at fire sale prices, but damn it hasn’t happened yet.
Maybe this’ll be a creeping recession, slowly impacting more people from the bottom up.
 
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I get everything you’re saying, but it’s just odd.

Even when the S&P dumped from $479 to $359, nothing went down in price and I really didn’t see any tightening of spending…anywhere. People are still buying up $300,000 starter homes.

The stimulus during the Great Recession led to a 10+ year bull run, and that wasn’t even 1 trillion dollars. Uncle sugar dumped 7.5 trillion on the world in the last 3 years.

I’ve been sitting on more cash than I should be ready to buy up tangible items at fire sale prices, but damn it hasn’t happened yet.
Maybe this’ll be a creeping recession, slowly impacting more people from the bottom up.
And, I get everything you are saying. We are in agreement about it being "odd".

Average people are spending a lot of money on "traveling". Even close friends and family are sending me messages and photos of sunsets on some tropical island. These are people who may take a 1 week road trip during the summer.

Seeing some big companies hold down on wages but are giving paid vacation time. Several I know are up to one month of paid vacation. So, they travel.

Another thing I am seeing is some of the oddities are "regional".

My summer has consisted of painting my small house, shop, garage and chicken coop. 5 gallons of Sherwin Williams, mid grade paint is $200 +/- with my contractor's discount. So far I have bought 40 gallons of paint. Montana weather is hard on a wood structure.

IMG_9659.JPG
 
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“The second point — obviously you had the war in Ukraine, you had the supply chain disruptions — but then you also had this massive buildup in excess savings plus ‘greedflation,’ so companies’ ability to raise prices by more than is warranted, and this is why we see profit margins at record levels over the past 10 years.”

 
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“The second point — obviously you had the war in Ukraine, you had the supply chain disruptions — but then you also had this massive buildup in excess savings plus ‘greedflation,’ so companies’ ability to raise prices by more than is warranted, and this is why we see profit margins at record levels over the past 10 years.”

“The central banks need to trigger a recession to force unemployment to pick up and create enough demand destruction, but we’re not there yet.”

"In order to maintain credibility, Agbo-Bloua therefore said central banks — and in particular the Fed — will need to keep raising interest rates until they induce a recession.

“We think that the recession or slowdown should occur in the U.S. in Q1 of next year because we think the cumulative tightening is ultimately going to have its effects, it’s not disappearing,”

“The second point is that consumer spending patterns will also slow down, so we think it is a combination of all of these factors that should eventually drive a slowdown,” he added.

“Then again, if you look at the current path of interest rates, it seems like we might see more tightening before this is likely to occur.”

“If forecasts are correct, it means that global GDP growth would come in 15.2% below trend, a scenario last seen during the pandemic in 2020 and, before that, in the 1940s.”

I have been stating this all along, and I am glad someone is saying it out loud. For prices to come down there has to be demand destruction. This only occurs when people lose their jobs. People should read that article and understand what they see as the goal and what has to happen to achieve that goal. A recession is baked into the future, along with higher unemployment. Whether or not prices eventually come down is up for debate.
 
“The central banks need to trigger a recession to force unemployment to pick up and create enough demand destruction, but we’re not there yet.”

"In order to maintain credibility, Agbo-Bloua therefore said central banks — and in particular the Fed — will need to keep raising interest rates until they induce a recession.

“We think that the recession or slowdown should occur in the U.S. in Q1 of next year because we think the cumulative tightening is ultimately going to have its effects, it’s not disappearing,”

“The second point is that consumer spending patterns will also slow down, so we think it is a combination of all of these factors that should eventually drive a slowdown,” he added.

“Then again, if you look at the current path of interest rates, it seems like we might see more tightening before this is likely to occur.”

“If forecasts are correct, it means that global GDP growth would come in 15.2% below trend, a scenario last seen during the pandemic in 2020 and, before that, in the 1940s.”

I have been stating this all along, and I am glad someone is saying it out loud. For prices to come down there has to be demand destruction. This only occurs when people lose their jobs. People should read that article and understand what they see as the goal and what has to happen to achieve that goal. A recession is baked into the future, along with higher unemployment. Whether or not prices eventually come down is up for debate.
I can only speak for myself and my summer activities here on my homestead.
I knew there were maintenance things that needed to be done when summer arrived so I "stocked up" on physical things or set aside funds to pay as I went on other items like house paint, engine oil / filters, blades and belts for my mowing equipment, etc.
What is resulting is that I am using up my "stock / resources" as I watch prices / taxes increase.
Being I am on a fixed income, my budget will not allow me to re-stock my stores that I had built up.
In all fairness, my property value has almost doubled over the past 7 years....
But, for what the note on my place is... I could not rent a one bedroom apartment for that amount.
In my case, an immediate recession with deflation would be a much better situation than allowing inflation to erode my finances for several more years.
Regardless of how the FED's label it, a recession is in the future. There will be no soft landing.
 


Very interesting interview…

15 minute mark he starts talking about the Dollar then he starts talking about a collapse.
 
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Very interesting interview…

15 minute mark he starts talking about the Dollar then he starts talking about a collapse.

Very good interview. I liked his phrase "when another wave comes in". Reminded me of standing on a beach and having a wave wash the sand out from under my feet. More waves result in more erosion. His forecast of a collapse in 2025 sounds about right. Not much time for those who are not prepared to get ready.
 
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Microsoft confirmed Monday that it’s eliminating additional jobs, a week after the start of its 2024 fiscal year.
The cuts are in addition to the downsizing announced in January that resulted in 10,000 layoffs. The software maker also disclosed a small number of cuts this time last year. GeekWire reported on the latest cuts earlier Monday.
Amazon, Google and other large technology companies have also scaled back this year after adding headcount rapidly to meet rising demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Microsoft has said in recent months that clients are looking for ways to save money on their cloud computing bill.


 
Watched the Simon Hunt video; alarm bells ringing hearing his time table prediction, ironic how our central bank removed the gold standard and BRICS is initiating, how to best prepare to lessen financial hardship. The working class being guided into investing their sweat earnings, only to see them vanish while at the same time bailouts are the norm for the ultra rich.
 
Do we know what is his claim to fame?
Simon Hunt

Simon Hunt has spent more than 50 years in the copper industry, having begun his career as personal assistant to Sir Ronald Prain, the chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, then one of the great global copper companies. After stints with Anglo American in London, followed by helping to start up a copper producer organization, he went into the City of London to gain financial experience. In 1975, he founded another metals consultancy, Brook Hunt, which he left at the end of 1995 to start up his existing company, which focuses on the global economy, China and the copper industry. Simon first visited China in 1993; since then, he has been spending two to three months each year in the country, until very recently, visiting mills all around China. He often has nonconsensus views on the global economy and copper, but they are more often right than wrong.


Articles by Simon Hunt​


 
I don't know anything about copper, but I do know when I go to buy wire it is fricken expensive.
 
If you are doubtful of his forecast... How does the future look from your perspective ?
No, not doubtful. Just wanted to see if he's got some special accomplishments to help prioritize the information. Thanks for digging up that blurb! I should have done my own digging but I'm finding even those results are wide and varied in terms of veracity these days. FWIW, everything he's talking about is understandable and logical. Very plausible too, especially the depression part.

I wish these smart folks would share with us lowly folks what they did and are doing to prepare for the coming storm. His suggestions at the end are pretty simplistic but again, I do believe they are sound principals to build from. I will get my meat canning process up and going, maybe buy another freezer.
 
to start up his existing company, which focuses on the global economy, China and the copper industry. Simon first visited China in 1993; since then, he has been spending two to three months each year in the country, until very recently, visiting mills all around China.

I wonder what he is watching in the UAE....
 
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No, not doubtful. Just wanted to see if he's got some special accomplishments to help prioritize the information. Thanks for digging up that blurb! I should have done my own digging but I'm finding even those results are wide and varied in terms of veracity these days. FWIW, everything he's talking about is understandable and logical. Very plausible too, especially the depression part.

I wish these smart folks would share with us lowly folks what they did and are doing to prepare for the coming storm. His suggestions at the end are pretty simplistic but again, I do believe they are sound principals to build from. I will get my meat canning process up and going, maybe buy another freezer.
Start here

 
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Although the U.S. economy has seen some respite from record inflation, one "Shark Tank" star warns there is a "crisis emerging" for U.S. small businesses.
"I live in the real world," O'Leary Ventures chairman Kevin O'Leary said. "I'm here on the Hill today in Washington talking to everybody I can about the problems I've got in just getting working capital for small businesses. We have a crisis emerging."

 
My Mom was a prepper / canning guru way before it became stylish and now necessary. Shoulda paid more attention when she was doing it!
My grandmother was on top of things. They grew up running a farm, so prepping was just a way of life. My parents ran as far away from their country upbringing as they could and buried any knowledge they once had. Funny how it seems to be circular. Now i'm trying to get back to the country and pick up the skills needed.
 
I have canned meat for many years, it is both safe and tasty if done correctly. The following link covers canning in both a pressure canner and water bath canner. A good read as canning is a skill that cannot be overlooked by anyone wanting to preserve food

https://nchfp.uga.edu/how/can_home.html#gsc.tab=0

If shit goes south my first order of business is to can all the contents of the meat freezer.
 
My grandmother was on top of things. They grew up running a farm, so prepping was just a way of life. My parents ran as far away from their country upbringing as they could and buried any knowledge they once had. Funny how it seems to be circular. Now i'm trying to get back to the country and pick up the skills needed.
Is it not interesting how certain "traits" skip a generation ? As we grow old, we pick up on different family members, their "likes and dislikes", the craftsmanship they have a passion for or their appreciation of music or the other cultures. Makes for an interesting world.
 
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My grandmother was on top of things. They grew up running a farm, so prepping was just a way of life. My parents ran as far away from their country upbringing as they could and buried any knowledge they once had. Funny how it seems to be circular. Now i'm trying to get back to the country and pick up the skills needed.
I wonder how much the "benevolent social planning/manipulation" affected the drive from rural areas to "the big city". I remember (did not use) "country bumpkin" growing up, which could of twisted the realities of many. My early interactions with farmers and farm families helped me understand they weren't slow/backwards as often portrayed on the idiot box. Farmers and families are some of the hardest working, highly skilled people on the planet. They are not slow as portrayed by hollyweird, they're considerate and cautious and generally think before they speak. Sure wish I would do that more often than not.
 
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I wonder how much the "benevolent social planning/manipulation" affected the drive from rural areas to "the big city". I remember (did not use) "country bumpkin" growing up, which could of twisted the realities of many. My early interactions with farmers and farm families helped me understand they weren't slow/backwards as often portrayed on the idiot box. Farmers and families are some of the hardest working, highly skilled people on the planet. They are not slow as portrayed by hollyweird, they're considerate and cautious and generally think before they speak. Sure wish I would do that more often than not.
All the way back to the beginning of time, the farmers learned from Mother Nature. American society has moved so far away from understanding Mother Nature that a young person just assumes he can sustain himself by going to the grocery store of the fast food place. Takes a while to learn how to grow enough corn and spuds to sustain yourself. Having a milk cow is beyond most people's thought process.