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Stock Market

Bought a SPY 460 call that expires 2024-03-15 back in November 2023 for $6.11 (that's $611 for those not aware how options work). SPY is now hitting 490 and that 460 call is worth $35.96 ($3596 for options newbs). That's a $2985 profit over a 3 month period so far. Imagine if I'd have bought 10.
 
Bought a SPY 460 call that expires 2024-03-15 back in November 2023 for $6.11 (that's $611 for those not aware how options work). SPY is now hitting 490 and that 460 call is worth $35.96 ($3596 for options newbs). That's a $2985 profit over a 3 month period so far. Imagine if I'd have bought 10.
Nice
 
More than just a "trend"
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Tesla is the stock market, bro.
Tesla is recalling nearly all its US vehicles,

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. safety regulators have upgraded their probe into Tesla (TSLA.O)
, opens new tab vehicles over power steering loss to an engineering analysis - a required step before the agency could demand a potential recall.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)said on Friday the investigation covers about 334,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles from the 2023 model year.
 
The majority of countries in the world are deep in debt. The cracks in the financial world are showing up.
America is deep in debt but is still not as bad off as the countries making up the "Market Basket".
So, the DXY is being propped up by the US Government / FED Reserve / etc.
Propping up 2 (3).JPG
Example:
 
This is a financial report from Enphase Energy, Inc. for the fourth quarter of 2023, including a summary from its President and CEO, Badri Kothandaraman.

Here are the key points:
Financial Highlights for Q4 2023:
  • Quarterly revenue: $302.6 million
  • GAAP gross margin: 48.5%; Non-GAAP gross margin: 50.3%
  • GAAP operating loss: $10.2 million; Non-GAAP operating income: $65.6 million
  • GAAP net income: $20.9 million; Non-GAAP net income: $73.5 million
  • GAAP diluted earnings per share: $0.15; Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share: $0.54
  • Free cash flow: $15.4 million; Ending cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities: $1.70 billion
Comparisons:
  • Total revenue for Q4 2023: $302.6 million, compared to $551.1 million in Q3 2023.
  • Revenue in the United States decreased by approximately 35%, and in Europe by approximately 70% compared to Q3 2023.
Operational Highlights:
  • Shipped 1,595,677 microinverters and 80.7 megawatt hours of IQ® Batteries.
  • Introduced new products like IQ8P™ Microinverters and IQ8X™ microinverter in various markets.
  • Share repurchase program initiated, with $100.0 million spent on repurchasing 1,183,246 shares in Q4 2023.
Business Highlights:
  • Various product launches and expansions in different countries.
  • Continued development and release of features in Solargraf℠, the company's cloud-based design and proposal software platform.
Financial Outlook for Q1 2024:
  • Revenue expected to be within a range of $260.0 million to $300.0 million.
  • GAAP gross margin within a range of 42.0% to 45.0%; Non-GAAP gross margin within a range of 44.0% to 47.0%.
  • Net IRA benefit estimated within a range of $12.0 to $14.0 million.
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This is a financial report from Enphase Energy, Inc. for the fourth quarter of 2023, including a summary from its President and CEO, Badri Kothandaraman.

Here are the key points:
Financial Highlights for Q4 2023:
  • Quarterly revenue: $302.6 million
  • GAAP gross margin: 48.5%; Non-GAAP gross margin: 50.3%
  • GAAP operating loss: $10.2 million; Non-GAAP operating income: $65.6 million
  • GAAP net income: $20.9 million; Non-GAAP net income: $73.5 million
  • GAAP diluted earnings per share: $0.15; Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share: $0.54
  • Free cash flow: $15.4 million; Ending cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities: $1.70 billion
Comparisons:
  • Total revenue for Q4 2023: $302.6 million, compared to $551.1 million in Q3 2023.
  • Revenue in the United States decreased by approximately 35%, and in Europe by approximately 70% compared to Q3 2023.
Operational Highlights:
  • Shipped 1,595,677 microinverters and 80.7 megawatt hours of IQ® Batteries.
  • Introduced new products like IQ8P™ Microinverters and IQ8X™ microinverter in various markets.
  • Share repurchase program initiated, with $100.0 million spent on repurchasing 1,183,246 shares in Q4 2023.
Business Highlights:
  • Various product launches and expansions in different countries.
  • Continued development and release of features in Solargraf℠, the company's cloud-based design and proposal software platform.
Financial Outlook for Q1 2024:
  • Revenue expected to be within a range of $260.0 million to $300.0 million.
  • GAAP gross margin within a range of 42.0% to 45.0%; Non-GAAP gross margin within a range of 44.0% to 47.0%.
  • Net IRA benefit estimated within a range of $12.0 to $14.0 million.
View attachment 8343046
Canadian Solar Inc.’s stock led gains among four solar power companies in the spotlight on Tuesday as it disclosed a $500 million investment from BlackRock Inc. into its Recurrent Energy unit.

At best, ENHP will be bought out by Canadian Solar or SunRun. The worst would be to go broke due to the cheap Chinese panels and related equipment. As the countries of the world deal with "debt" the tariff's will be removed and the cheap panels will flood the market.
 
KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut all posted weaker-than-expected sales.

They blame it on the middle east conflict. Funny they don't blame it on inflation in America and the $18 hamburger.

 
KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut all posted weaker-than-expected sales.

They blame it on the middle east conflict. Funny they don't blame it on inflation in America and the $18 hamburger.

They had a beat on all YOY numbers, just didn’t hit “analyst” estimates. Who really failed here? Weathermen have a higher accuracy rating.
 
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They had a beat on all YOY numbers, just didn’t hit “analyst” estimates. Who really failed here? Weathermen have a higher accuracy rating.
They are all trying to "pump up the balloon".........
In my Heavy Industrial World, the saying was "Money talks and bull shit walks"......
Nothing has changed.
 
KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut all posted weaker-than-expected sales.

They blame it on the middle east conflict. Funny they don't blame it on inflation in America and the $18 hamburger.


I drive past fast food places at dinner time. They use to have lines in the drive thru that would extend past the parking lot into the street and impede traffic night after night after night

Not anymore. Even chik fil a (bigfatcock garbage) has 4 cars in the drive thru at 5:30pm
Raising Cane's (competitor garbage) same way, lines from the drive thru used to block traffic at dinner time, not anymore

I don't mean just one night, I mean night after night.

When the poors are not eating fast food, what do they eat? Kraft mac-n-cheese? I know some downgrade to 7-11 convenience store food hot dogs and pizza and gas station food, like Sheetz and Wawa also both seem busier than normal at dinner time.
 
They are all trying to "pump up the balloon".........
In my Heavy Industrial World, the saying was "Money talks and bull shit walks"......
Nothing has changed.
Absolutely the analysts are trying to be overzealous to spur on the bulls, and as much as they have gotten shit wrong in the last few years, I see the present to be no different that they're still going to end up wrong.

They "predicted" for two years there was going to be a negative GDP and a full blown enduring recession, all in hopes of influencing increased caution into the FED, and they were all wrong. They "predicted" there jsut had be a slow buildup of FED rates or companies would all retract and start layoffs, and they were all wrong. They recently "predicted" the FED would start dropping rates to start the year because "inflation is over", and again, they were all wrong. It's like they take the basis for all their predictions from Jim Cramer and Cathie Wood.

I do not believe we're ready for the record highs we're seeing just yet, and do not believe they will hold. Doesn't mean I'm not going to continue buying, I'm always buying and rarely selling as I'm in the long game and not day trading, but I see no reason to believe they have gotten a single thing right yet.
 
Worldwide

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Glencore (GLEN.L), said on Monday it will sell its stake in Koniambo Nickel SAS (KNS) in New Caledonia and that production at KNS's processing plant will be halted for six months while a new investor is sought for the loss-making business.
The plant's furnaces will remain hot to maintain the viability of the site and all local KNS employees will be retained, it said.


 
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I made the cartons for Coke and Pepsi - both companies worry that one day the American consumer will say no to high priced sugar water.
Consumers will curtail spending this year. Why ? Inflation has nibbled away at their buying power. The propaganda lead them to believe this was all "temporary" so they used the charge card more and more. Inflation is not transitional. The bubble will burst.
 
Piedmont Lithium - $PLL

Corporate

Piedmont finished 2023 with $72 million in cash and currently holds approximately $38 million in marketable securities. The Company intends to reduce its capital spending in 2024 and control operating expenses through expense management that the Company views as prudent, including a recently completed 27% reduction in force. The Company expects to complete the majority of its cost savings initiatives by the end of Q1’24 and is targeting approximately $10 million in annual run rate savings.

“These cost reduction actions, while difficult, are necessary to position the Company for the long-term. Lithium prices have fallen sharply, and the market consensus is currently negative. However, lithium has been a cyclical business over the past decade with trough markets in pricing generally followed by new record highs,” commented Mr. Phillips. “As they say in the mining business, ‘the solution to low prices is low prices,’ and announcements of capacity curtailments and new project deferrals have recently become commonplace with more likely to come. At today’s lithium prices and equity valuations, new project development is expected to be challenging for all, and if EV markets continue to grow, then another period of lithium shortages appears likely to follow.”

“We believe we are extremely well-positioned as a partner in North America’s only producing spodumene mine and in an exceptional low-capex development project in Africa, with tactical optionality to build downstream businesses in two locations in the United States. We have taken a series of measures we believe are judicious to protect shareholder value in this downturn, while remaining strategically positioned for the lithium market recovery that we foresee,” said Mr. Phillips.
 
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LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Something is amiss in American financial markets. U.S. stocks hit new highs last week, propelled in part by the belief the country will vanquish inflation and avoid a recession. At the same time, though, derivatives traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates. That will not happen unless the central bank is seriously worried about growth. One of the two camps is destined to be wrong.

 
These companies are "just throwing numbers out"... Good number gets a one day bump. Take the money and run. Not one agency enforcing the penalties... They learned from the Government.

 
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Feb 15 (Reuters) - Deere & Co cut its 2024 profit forecast on Thursday as farmers remained hesitant about big-ticket equipment purchases due to high borrowing rates and falling crop prices, even as its first-quarter sales and profit topped Wall Street estimates.
Shares of the world's largest farm equipment maker were down 5.4% in early trading as the manufacturer has seemingly passed its peak for robust demand.

With farmers reassessing expenses, particularly for compact tractors, Deere said it now expects net income for fiscal 2024 of $7.50 billion to $7.75 billion. This is below its prior forecast of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and below analysts predictions of $7.93 billion, which already marked a decline from the prior quarter.
 
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Why act like this is new? The US subsidizes many industries with oil and gas being one of them.
I don't agree with those either and have called them out often. But O&G can still stand on its own without it, plus has massive national security implications involved if it were to fall. EV industry is propped up by .gov on the basis of the false prophet climate scare, not because it has actual basis for viability in comparison to ICE or hybrid technology for the majority of American drivers.

But remember, I love those Wyoming coal and NG burning Teslas. Sounds like money in my pocket...
 
I don't agree with those either and have called them out often. But O&G can still stand on its own without it, plus has massive national security implications involved if it were to fall. EV industry is propped up by .gov on the basis of the false prophet climate scare, not because it has actual basis for viability in comparison to ICE or hybrid technology for the majority of American drivers.

But remember, I love those Wyoming coal and NG burning Teslas. Sounds like money in my pocket...
Yeah, sometimes it is hard to see the forest through the trees...
 
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I've done a lot of stainless steel piping. When fabricating stainless (pipe, sheets, etc) it either has to be insulated from the carbon steel forming dies, the wire brushes on the buffing machines must be the same grade of stainless or there will be contamination of the stainless surface and rust will show up. If one carbon steel screw rust it will contaminate the entire area around in a stainless containment.
It shows up often in the off shore marine world.
 
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Investors are being duped, again. They put their money in a fund and just because a fund, supposedly, does well... It does not mean the individual is doing well. Like putting up 75% to buy into a business and only getting 5% of the profit.
How much dumber can American's get ?
 

I worked in heavy US industry. Traveled all over Europe looking for Innovation ideas. Quickly realized that all the interesting things being done in Europe only worked when heavily subsidized by taxpayers through government mandates. None of those “good ideas” work in a free market economy. Maybe move to Europe? I suggest Sweden.
 
ALB

Albemarle Corp. should have stayed with the industries they knew so well.
14 months of disaster with no relief in sight.

View attachment 8353816

Energy storage is multiples of Specialities and Ketjen which is why ALB is highly correlated to lithium spot price. To suggest the peak in commodity pricing to trough lows is somehow related to not understanding the industry or is a corporate disaster highlights a lack of understanding.
 
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I worked in heavy US industry. Traveled all over Europe looking for Innovation ideas. Quickly realized that all the interesting things being done in Europe only worked when heavily subsidized by taxpayers through government mandates. None of those “good ideas” work in a free market economy. Maybe move to Europe? I suggest Sweden.

Much like any emerging technology, there are heavy subsidies provided by the government to support infrastructure and research. Think the internet.
 
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Energy storage is multiples of Specialities and Ketjen which is why ALB is highly correlated to lithium spot price. To suggest the peak in commodity pricing to trough lows is somehow related to not understanding the industry or is a corporate disaster highlights a lack of understanding.
Cat Cracking is old technology... Before computers... Again, branching off into the unknown in America. Government rules and regulations will slow them down. Chinese will take the ball and run with it. Deja Vu
 
Much like any emerging technology, there are heavy subsidies provided by the government to support infrastructure and research. Think the internet.
The US Government is broke, financially. If / When Trump takes over look out. He is a business man with a big mess on his hands. New ventures by the government won't happen. Look at the EV industry in America.

Think about debt !
 
The US Government is broke, financially. If / When Trump takes over look out. He is a business man with a big mess on his hands. New ventures by the government won't happen. Look at the EV industry in America.

Think about debt !

I don’t know why people have this view if Trump takes office. You think he’s going to end subsidies on reshoring of jobs and bringing manufacturing of chips, EVs, and batteries to America?
 
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I don’t know why people have this view if Trump takes office. You think he’s going to end subsidies on reshoring of jobs and bringing manufacturing of chips, EVs, and batteries to America?
IMHO.... IF Trump takes office his focus will be Boarder, Debt, Corruption, Enforcing existing laws (LEO's , Drugs, corruption)... Ukraine and Israel will have to fight their own battles, NATO will become a bad memory.

If he's not president we can kiss all these pipe dreams good by due to the Revolution.

No middle ground. There can't be... Collapse of the USD and the House of cards falls.

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