The oil and petroleum products that are reaching the market now were drilled 4-5 years ago. As I tried to make clear in my previous post, In 4-5 we will see the prices from the current regimes policies in 4-5 years.
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Texas folks?
- Thread starter Gunfighter14e2
- Start date
Real feel is in the teens here in San Antonio but it's all good. The weather is mostly nice. If the wind wasn't blowing so damn hard I'd probably like it. But the wind feels slightly harsh.
For nature lovers, nothing survives under solar farms, not even cactus. And if it snows they don't get sunlight, so don't produce.
First year 1972 Honda Civic got 48mpg. That was 51-52 years ago.
Wind turbins and solar are not the answer. Its a feel good story. How much energy is spent making a 200w solar panel? How much energy will it produce over 20 years?
That's really deep, pun intended! Study up, it might be completely over your head, as it is with mine. I have heard about it and have friends in the bis.
I just looked up the average cost of a wind turbine is 2.5-4 million. Lets say 3 million cost for easy math. They can produce 6 million kw a year.
I pay 5c per Kw for my electricity(plus another 3.5c for delivery) and the wholesaler is making money on my 5c, most of the time(probably not this week). Lets say they pay 3c per KW for wholesale energy. At 3c per kw and 3 million to build a turbine, they need to produce 100 million KW to break even. Thats 16.6 years to break even on 3 million dollar cost. And thats just using simple math that doesnt even begin to broach maintenance, etc... Obviously that math changes across the country. Best I can find on an NG plant build cost break even is 9-17 years. At best its almost half and at worse an NG plant is the same break even time frame as wind. A nuke plant break even is measured in decades since their cost to build is crazy high, their cost to run is very cheap.
I pay 5c per Kw for my electricity(plus another 3.5c for delivery) and the wholesaler is making money on my 5c, most of the time(probably not this week). Lets say they pay 3c per KW for wholesale energy. At 3c per kw and 3 million to build a turbine, they need to produce 100 million KW to break even. Thats 16.6 years to break even on 3 million dollar cost. And thats just using simple math that doesnt even begin to broach maintenance, etc... Obviously that math changes across the country. Best I can find on an NG plant build cost break even is 9-17 years. At best its almost half and at worse an NG plant is the same break even time frame as wind. A nuke plant break even is measured in decades since their cost to build is crazy high, their cost to run is very cheap.
The biggest part you’re missing is the capacity factor. CF is the equivalent amount of time the unit is running at 100% capacity. For example a 100 megawatt unit running at 25% would take 4 hours to produce the same amount of power it could in one hour running at 100% output therefore it’s CF would be 25% for those 4 hours. You can have a cheap unit but if it’s CF is 30% it’s really not doing you any good compared to a more expensive unit running at 70% CF.
The other thing that people aren’t aware of is for every 5MW of solar and wind you need at a minimum 3MW to back it up, because the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun isn’t always shining. Where’s a conventional unit doesn’t need the backup of wind and solar.
The other thing that people aren’t aware of is for every 5MW of solar and wind you need at a minimum 3MW to back it up, because the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun isn’t always shining. Where’s a conventional unit doesn’t need the backup of wind and solar.
Let’s say you have a 100 MW load, you would need say 125MW of generation to handle it in a conventional fleet.
Now the same 100 MW load with wind and solar added in you would need the following.
25 MW of solar/wind and 120 MW of conventional power
So now just a simple cost per MW comparison doesn’t work
Now the same 100 MW load with wind and solar added in you would need the following.
25 MW of solar/wind and 120 MW of conventional power
So now just a simple cost per MW comparison doesn’t work
im not talking about hourly output or whatever.... Those are just theoretical numbers I believe...
If a wind turbine CAN put out that much, but the wind never blows, it puts out zero obviously.
Your assuming they will generate 6 million KWH in a year. I’m saying the capacity factor says they will not generate that much. That’s where you need the CF , the CF says how much it will generate in a year. So I’m saying the 16.6 years will be incorrect. It’s like leasing a truck to haul loads with. If you only use the truck 1 day a week it’s going to take you longer to pay your lease vs using it 5 days a week
It gets convoluted pretty quick once you start getting into the details.
It gets convoluted pretty quick once you start getting into the details.
As for 100 years of Toyota, even at earlier times when the gas mileage was less, it was still more efficient than solar. or even wind.
It was more efficient than horses in a lot of ways. Although, my FIL worked for the LCRA installing power poles in rural areas and they used mules to pull the poles into position and pull lines up. Once bigger and better vehicles that ran on gas came along, those were more efficient and quicker than mules.
To me, it is not that we are not giving wind and solar a chance, it is because it simply will not do the job efficiently. Maybe some panels for a house but you will never be able to disconnect from the grid on just that.
The biggest problem with electricity is storage. We do not have a way to store large amounts of power like we do fuel. The power, and the safety of the components that create power require that it be created on demand. Yeah, an electric car works on a rechargable battery. Guess how those cars even stood a chance? Govt Subsidy, whether we like it or not.
It was more efficient than horses in a lot of ways. Although, my FIL worked for the LCRA installing power poles in rural areas and they used mules to pull the poles into position and pull lines up. Once bigger and better vehicles that ran on gas came along, those were more efficient and quicker than mules.
To me, it is not that we are not giving wind and solar a chance, it is because it simply will not do the job efficiently. Maybe some panels for a house but you will never be able to disconnect from the grid on just that.
The biggest problem with electricity is storage. We do not have a way to store large amounts of power like we do fuel. The power, and the safety of the components that create power require that it be created on demand. Yeah, an electric car works on a rechargable battery. Guess how those cars even stood a chance? Govt Subsidy, whether we like it or not.
Reviewing this thread, and especially in light of the very bad weather being experienced down there (well, actually *over there... I'm farther South), reminds me of this classic Zack Rushing Video. "We ain't Built for this!"
NSFW for both language and "adult" humor.
NSFW for both language and "adult" humor.
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Chicago & Vicinity is a "machine" when it comes to bad weather, and especially snow. The tiniest little snowflakes fall, and there are 3-plow trio truck sets out in formation within 1 hour's time, one truck for each lane. In the 4 years or so that I spent at college, there were only two snow days where it shut down. Only two. and both were consecutive (so only 1 snow event).
I have tried to explain this to my buddy who is down here in Dallas for a month with work. He lives in St. Louis and is used to this kind of weather. He's like "what is everybody freaking out about" and I said "we dont have the equipment to deal with basically any winter precip. We dont have piles upon piles of salt/sand to spread. We dont have fleets of plow trucks... Etc... It doesnt make financial sense when 3 days later its 60 degrees. I think after 2021's event people kinda got the picture and now everybody is just more pro-active on simply shutting down for 2-3 days and hunkering in. Everybody except the fucking power grid LOL...
But the biggest kick in the balls is PROBABLY all these office buildings that are "closed" are likely still running their heat in the 70's and the lights are all on, etc... Im not saying shut the heat off, but if nobody is going to be there, lower the heat, shut the lights off, etc.... In 2021 when we didnt have power at our house for 4 days, one of the nights I went out looking for gas for the generator, and the car dealers in town all had all their massive parking lot lights on... fucking ass-holes. About 2 or 3 weeks later I needed to go to the Chevy dealer for a part and I asked for the GM while I was in there and told him it was pretty insensitive to have the lights on when half the city had no power... I said "I know its a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme, but it really pissed me off"... He said he understood and I wasnt the first person to make that comment...
We're generating electricity using geothermal brine, 270-400 degrees depending on the local resource. Our plants vary from 12-200 MW again depending on resource temperature and volume.
the news lies everyday to try and make Texas look bad.
Not really..... but im of course not a fan of anything Obama did. i know one plant in North Texas that was killed by Obama.
Texas powergrid issues have been greatly exaggerated.
WIND TURBINE FAIL: Texas Power Grid Operator Issues Warning Amid Extreme Cold Snap | The Gateway Pundit | by Cristina Laila
Here we go again.www.thegatewaypundit.com
im pretty sure ive shared this before, but i work closely with a very large generator and transmission company, so I get to know some things other might not.
First, ERCOT is going to tell people to "conserve" just because. its standard practice going forward. as far as i know, there is no issue with the grid right now.
the issue with the grid back in the deep freeze of 2021 was the entire state, 254 counties, were all below freezing temps at the same time. That was brownsville to Dalhart, El Paso to Orange. Multiple days where it was freezing. Keep in mind, in the Rio Grande Valley, basically everything south of Beeville, it rarely EVER FREEZES. During that year, there was roughly 25% of the generator capacity was down for SCHEDULED OUTAGES and maintenance. There is a planned outage moratorium from May 15 to September 15th every year, which means line upgrades, station upgrades and outages, and generation cannot do anything until its outside that date. Before that, the last time there was any brown outs or rolling blackouts in the state was a really hot year about 2009 in Laredo. Since then , there has been Billions and billions in infrastructure, transmission and stations and generation that has been planned and built. Summer demand since then is ALWAYS much higher because winter some people heat with NG and Propane and usually the RGV is not below freezing when north Texas is.
As for now, there is plenty of generation capacity for demand. the sources are all telling me there is just no issue like there was in 2021. ERCOT is also adjusting and trying to not have as much planned generation out in the coldest Texas months which are January and February.
anyway, the sky isnt falling, we all doing just fine down here in Texas.
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I believe there have been 2 coal plants from Obama and may e one more scheduled.
The other problem in that 2021 was a lot of the NG transmission wasn't well protected and even ones that were got caught up in the rolling blackouts that caused them to freeze up reducing NG supply even further.
The other problem in that 2021 was a lot of the NG transmission wasn't well protected and even ones that were got caught up in the rolling blackouts that caused them to freeze up reducing NG supply even further.
When you don't fill out the essential service paperwork ERCOT will shut your power off.
Current fuel sources of electricity generation in Texas.
https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
All good here in Belton (central TX). As I'm typing this it's 18 out. No snow or ice as it's dry as a bone.
The boys next door at Ft. Hood (yeah, I know they changed the name but FJB) have been shooting off a bunch of arty the last couple of weeks, every once in a while it rattles the windows in our hacienda mostly at night. I'd bet there's some troops freezing their butts off.
And as was mentioned above, the deep freeze we had 3 years ago lasted much longer and I believe some heads rolled at ERCOT.
Our big problem is the ongoing drought conditions. Lake Belton is down over 16' from normal.
The boys next door at Ft. Hood (yeah, I know they changed the name but FJB) have been shooting off a bunch of arty the last couple of weeks, every once in a while it rattles the windows in our hacienda mostly at night. I'd bet there's some troops freezing their butts off.
And as was mentioned above, the deep freeze we had 3 years ago lasted much longer and I believe some heads rolled at ERCOT.
Our big problem is the ongoing drought conditions. Lake Belton is down over 16' from normal.
We're at 16 degrees, 2.5 hours South.
Don't sweat the drought. It's rainy spring coming and you're gonna fill up.
This deep freeze was needed so we can have a great spring. Kill off some insects and weeds, get good grass growing when the rain starts. I hate the cold more than anyone but this will be fine. I'm rubbing my hands together to get my pasture seeded and growing good
Solar doesn't even work for a house. You're just changing the payment from the electrical grid to the solar system. You'll spend about the same of money over15-20 years, and the efficiency of the grid is much better than the panels. Makeup makes people feel good, and so do solar panels and EV vehicles. We are living in a woman's world!
Unfortunately, what we need is less people. Mother nature will correct that, as soon as she has had enough..
I live close enough to the Red River that if I sneeze, it is raining in Oklahoma.
Sorry about your luck. It's colder than a well diggers ass up there
See my post (#66) above. The correct quotation is, "...colder than a witch's titty flying over a well digger's ass in Idaho."
GF said 3500 on the Southside were without power. iEye, Dios Mio!
15* on my deck at 6:30 here in Burnet when I woke up. Windchill is supposed to be in single digits.
I'm not going out to verify.
See my post (#66) above. The correct quotation is, "...colder than a witch's titty flying over a well digger's ass in Idaho."
dont tell me my metaphors for cold weather, Tampa Bay FLORIDA!!
dont tell me my metaphors for cold weather, Tampa Bay FLORIDA!!
Actually, I can, as of the last few weeks. The low for tonight is supposed to be 36˚F. And we've had similar temps almost this entire month and for a part of December, 2023. We haven't had a high in the 80's for almost the last 30 days! I can't recall the last time I've run my heat pump so much.
i dont know that info. it wouldnt be too hard to do. the southeast part of the county had the most moisture and ice yesterday and so some trees could be giving way under the strain. whatever happened, they are up and running full bore at 9 am.
Power failed twice last night in my area. Just a local event that affected around 3,000 customers. First failure was around 6:30 PM. Power restored around 7:45 PM. Second failure around 7:50 PM with power restored around 9:00 PM. I doubt that the failure was due to ice/snow.
Luckily I've got a potable generator that can power the entire house, even in the summer with the AC running.
Current Oncor outage map.
Luckily I've got a potable generator that can power the entire house, even in the summer with the AC running.
Current Oncor outage map.
It can. I bought and installed most of mine. Payback is around 7 years, and I have fridges, office and Internet on critical load panel that can run for several days on battery backup. I can top those off with generator if I want. That's also assuming inflation doesn't hit electric costs.. lol.
Wasting your breath. You could lay all the paperwork on the table to prove your point and most would still deny it. Its kind of embarrassing..
Green Man Bad
