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Suppressors Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

Oddball Six

Commander of Meh
Full Member
Minuteman
Apr 2, 2010
540
45
40°25′N, 104°43′W
Just like my earlier post at:
http://www.snipershide.com/forum/ubbthre...820#Post3252820

I extracted the data since that post from nfa tracker and did some basic calculating, filtered out the clear oddballs that indicated unreliable data, and then did a few simple statistical operations.

NFAWaitJune.jpg


Only two clear conclusions:
- Wait times hit the 180 day mark and the ATF appears to be undertaking some effort to keep them there.
- Something has changed in the way that he operational process works because at the end of may / start of june we go from all over the board to sudden start towards tighter consistency in processing.

It will be interesting to look back in a few months and see what this trend looks like, whether its just a number of apps processing at the same time, or if the introduction of examiner helper contractors is starting to take effect.

It would also appear that in the more recent data both individual and trust applications are being processed in a very similar timeframe with no clear pattern emerging for one versus the other in a way that is statically significant.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

Good to know, as I'll be applying for my first soon.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

I'm getting nightmare flashbacks of my statistics class........ahhhh the pain the pain!

But seriously, 6 months is unacceptable. With the giant increase in tax revenue, in direct porportion to the giant increase in apps, they should have a nice big staff by now!
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

That is very good to see a decrease. Hopefully the trend will stay and wait times will become shorter and shorter.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

Excellent work. Nice to see things changing for the better too. Now we wait for the long term trends....
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

You say things changed. When I enter my fourm 4 checked cashed time 05 xx 2012 it has me waiting till March of 2013
That alot longer then 6 months or am I doing something wrong?
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

Two of mine went pending Jan 25,2012 just received last friday June 29 2012 little over 5 months
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: chka</div><div class="ubbcode-body">Good to know, as I'll be applying for my first soon.</div></div>

+1 and thank you for posting the info.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

This is really nice to know. I’m getting really close to that magic 180 number so my new suppressor for the Gap -10 should be here by fall!
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: rmbgreen</div><div class="ubbcode-body">You say things changed. When I enter my fourm 4 checked cashed time 05 xx 2012 it has me waiting till March of 2013
That alot longer then 6 months or am I doing something wrong? </div></div>

I think the estimator on NFA tracker is way off. It says that mine is going to be almost 10 months from pending to approval. I don't know anything for sure, but that doesn't sound right.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

One needs to ask the question, "Is the NFA tracker a site posted by the BAFTE or someone else?". It is my considered opinion that the BAFTE is not going to be publishing its work accomplishment record.

I put little stock in this.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

From what I have heard of the NFA tracker site is that it uses user inputs to come up with the estimated wait times.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

I am liking this trend as I am planning on purchasing my first can this weekend. Just got to narrow it down by then. So many great choices.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

I called Wednesday and was told mine went pending June 14. That it would be 6 months before I got mine
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

I have one that went pending june 14th as well. they told me then that it would be sometime in december. al lamberger is my examiner.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

Whew, how to put this.

The data on NFA Tracker is so inherently flawed that any calculation as to relative performance, actual performance, hell ANY performance is just not statistically possible with any degree of reasonable accuracy.

That data is so rife with statistically significant numbers of supposed individual entries without any date data present at all that any statistician could only make one profound statement..

"the data is so deeply and broadly compromised by errors, absences, and discrepancies that nothing of any statistical relevance should be drawn from it. Even proportionality between various classes of NFA processes are suspect. The most verifiable observation is that the current data, as provided, reveals a complete lack of purposeful value. Its greatest single value may only be in helping one understand how not to collect, maintain, provide or represent data of this nature."

Hate to say it, but it is true. One can most certainly not come to the conclusion that June's performance in any way shows consistency patterns, or for that matter, that the overall trend is tighter, declining, improving, etc. etc. etc. Unfortunately, and as one that has been through this data extensively, you are wasting your time. Still, you are kind to attempt to shed some light.
 
Re: Wait Patterns: A June Update - Something Changed!

I'm patiently awaiting approval on my fifth stamp, I live in KY. One thing I don't understand is why so many are worried about when it goes pending. I make sure the check was cashed but unless I hear from them first I never call. My first three stamps were all right at six months, my last one was right at seven. Personally I'm leary of wasting their time or even pissing some one off that could cause a longer wait. Just curious