Where’s all the evictions and foreclosures?

[Fig]

 

[E. Bryant]

I was not talking about retail developments. I was talking about industrial. I try to stay away from retail entirely, even when it wasn't sucking tail pipe. It's almost it's own industry with it's own "ethics".

Yeah, industrial tax benefits are indeed an ugly mess. What I've witnessed is that companies whine and stomp their feet like children, local governments quickly cave and offer tax abatements, and then the process repeats every time there is a significant opportunity for expansion or when the 10-15 year abatement periods comes to an end. I get it (companies need to look at every opportunity possible), but it feels one step removed from blackmail.

 

[Fig]

You're talking about something completely different.

I'm talking about real estate development. They burn out, and there's never a renegotiation. Once the facilities are built they're built. The taxes become what they are, and the incentive for the city to reduce them is completely gone. Essentially they city gets something (on a delayed basis) where there was nothing, but once they have it they don't provide more incentives. The incentives are to get it built only. This is why I say it works, and it's not the manufacturers extortion you are talking about.

 

[chevy_man]

Retail is probably never going to fully recover.
Now that Amazon just got handed a monopoly on a lot of commerce for several months straight & got everyone hooked on sitting at home, they have a lot of inertia in their favour.

Walmart will probably continue to be just fine, but I expect for many other retail places, it may not be worth opening your doors again. Malls are going to have to find something else like tearing everything down and building apartments or such.

Retail was already dead because they're not open when normal people aren't at work.

My hometown, half of main street is empty. They complained nobody shopped there. They were open 9-5 while everyone with income was working.

The one store that's there and thriving? The sporting goods store that's open 7 days a week, from 10-7. They get the older retired crowd early, and a rush of everyone else from 5-7 every day and are steady all day Saturday and Sunday.

It's amazing to be that people can't grasp the concept of closing on Monday/Tuesday and staying open weekends will actually get people in the door to shop in the first place.
I don't know anyone that takes work off to go shopping. Maybe we're just all Poor's?

 

[chevy_man]

And if you go back 30-40 years, you'll see that property prices have indeed increased, but interest rates have also shown an inverse trend. I'll acknowledge that rates have been "noisier" than prices, but the trend lines of the two inversely correlate pretty nicely. Now, does that prove causation? No, but denying that a relationship exists between the two seems just a touch foolish.

I'm not so much talking about the ballers who are making this work in any market. I'm talking about the jamokes who are doing exactly what we saw 15 years ago - taking on some debt to buy up a bunch of property with the idea of making some rent now (hopefully enough to cover the debt service costs) and then flip those properties later when they inevitably appreciate. Which isn't inevitable at all - no law of physics say that real estate prices must go up, even if they have indeed done so pretty much since I was born.

And of course there are the local factors that you mentioned. Sitting on several single-family homes or retail commercial storefronts isn't the greatest plan when the one local employer decides to close down that nice factory, lay off all the unionized workforce, and move production down South or overseas. Got to watch that one play out in 2006 when a large auto parts manufacturer decided to close down a plant which had paid for a lot of nice homes in the area. Probably sucked to get caught on the wrong side of that mess (probably sucked even worse when 2008-09 brought a double-whammy).

Anyways, my whole point is that price appreciation isn't guaranteed, but people sure borrow money as if it was. Gotta be smarter than that.



No disagreement here.
[/QUOTE]


Prices can't crash to hard. Remember how many of us are here, and there is a finite amount of space. The big push with prices is because the supply isn't there. It never will be, as nobody builds in a downturn.

You'll always have people remodeling and building custom homes, but the big track home developers that are supplying whole neighborhoods shut down every time the market drops.

 

[Maggot]

The elephant in the room is Commercial. D Govs & COVID shot Retail in the head. Office? Everyone is rethinking their sqft needs...

And in the big cities most of the stores are fucking boarded up because of the, lets call a spade a spade, Communist insurrection.

 

[10ring'r]

Lmao

I can get sued for asking for that much deposit. 2 months max here. Which covers about jack and shit for a bad renter.


You don’t own your house / property / children / etc. .gov just lets you have puss them

Yeah, my Realtor gave me the "stink eye", but, I know what kind of hell renters can do to property and I'm not going to lose "equity", to fix what renters F-up. Mac