Keeping the HUGE part quiet. 'unfunded liablilites'
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Good discussion on
Debt and Interest Rates from WolfStreet. Most of the debt (esp that $150T) just isn't going to be paid or at least not with any form of currency that has any purchasing power.
TLDR - current average cost of funds for the US is @ 3.4%. We have 6T of re-fi slated this year alone. (Using a 10yr Note as an example) on the roll, that debt is to be refi'd @ 200+ basis points more, driving the weighted average cost of funds. Some say we can go to 5% before it hits the fan. Regardless - this is the story of
gradually, and then all at once.
Couple of other factoids:
For every $1.00 of stimulus (public money spent into the economy to generate more public wealth) the return is currently @ $0.15.
@ 19% of all income in America is transfer payments
@ 70% of the US Econ is Consumer Spending (*consider these last 2 together)
Current Debt to GDP is @ 130%. That rocket ship took off in 1981, and on a graph (regardless of games played under Clinton in the 1990s) it is has been a virtual straight line on the graph, @ 20 yrs we'll be at 200%.......unless of course the World tires of Modern Monetary Theory and WRC / Treasuries which can be confiscated via sanctions prior to that - kinda bet it does.
ps -
Jamie Dimon tells you the truth (if you want the Dollar to be worth something, someone needs to be willing to die for it, b/c nothing backs it but force):
He also mentioned the US dollar's potentially waning status as the leading world reserve currency, which has been an axiom since the end of World War II.
'I always get asked this question: Are we going to be the reserve currency? No. You know, if we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That’s a fact. Just read history,' he said.