Housing shortage.

Jefe's Dope

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  • Dec 20, 2017
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    I live on Zillow watching what's happening and pricing. Today there are 52 agent listing in approx. 30 sq. miles of well developed suburban area in a North suburb of Denver. There are 42 rentals available in the same search area. This amounts to nearly zero inventory.

    It's getting worse, not better. I can't believe how little inventory is available and how quickly even the most dilapidated homes sell for.

    What's your area look like?
     

    mcameron

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  • Nov 17, 2011
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    I tried to buy a house last year....most fucking houses were getting offers the same day they were listed......the same day!


    Like are people not even inspecting the homes before plunking down a deposit??

    After fucking around with that bullshit for a year we decided to wait and let the market cool down
     

    8pointer

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  • Nov 20, 2018
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    Crazy here, but it's not a new thing it's been in very short supply for 10 years just no more dirt. $400/sq ft right now starts the process of a bidding war. $500/sq ft will secure something in this area. Glad I bought 18 years ago or I'd have to live in another city.
     

    vinniedelpino

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    Sep 27, 2020
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    Most of the real estate investors I work with are saying 12 to 18 months.

    Covid halted evictions and foreclosures while simultaneously dropping interest rates. On top of that, trade issues caused lumber prices to double between Jan and Sept of 2020, so new construction slowed down a good bit as well.

    Sometime in the near future, interest rates will likely rise, foreclosures/evictions will resume and the market will be flooded by landlords unloading rental properties because they're tired of eating shit. Most of the smaller landlords I work with are just waiting to get out of the rental game... Lumber prices will also go back to normal and construction will pick up where it left off.

    More supply (new construction, foreclosures hitting the market etc.) plus less demand (higher mortgage rates, more people building vs buying) will make for an interesting correction in the housing markets.

    Be patient and profit. Now is not the time to buy, especially if it's a cash purchase.
     

    Maxwell

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    Nov 10, 2003
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    Homes where I am are sold same day they are listed if the price is below 800k. Those that range between 1.2-1.9 million are now on the market for less than a week.
    I have notice that about 3 years ago here in central Jersey there has been a major influx of Chinese moving in. They only buy new homes that go for above 1.5 million. What did they see happening in China that was not in the news?

    Maxwell
     

    CMP70306

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    Feb 16, 2017
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    I bought my first house last year, it went on the market Monday afternoon and they wanted best and final by Wednesday. Based on the NY plates stopped in front of the house later that day Id say a number of them were people looking to bail to PA.

    When I was talking to the seller later it turns out I was one of 20 offers in that time with several others that were higher than mine. However they chose to sell to me because I went to school with their son and they were happy to sell it to a life long resident of that neighborhood.
     

    S197

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    Nov 22, 2019
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    I’m in NW Florida and the pricing is over inflated, most of the homes are selling higher then their appraisals.
     
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    kindabitey

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  • Feb 13, 2017
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    I've been looking for the last 8-10 months with no luck. The last two I went to had contracts on them within 4 hours. If I had 800K+ to spend, or need 4500 sq. ft., it might be a little better. All I need is room for me and the 4 legged asshole I live with.
     

    Painless300

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    Dec 2, 2013
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    I work for one of the largest Wholesale Building Product Distribution companies in the US. Have been here for over 20 years. In my time I have seen the lumber and panel markets come and go. I went though the screaming market from 04-06 when you didn't have to be a salesman to sell, just needed material. Then went through the housing bubble in 07-08 and the terrible years that followed.
    I have never seen anything like what we are going through now. With housing inventories at all time lows, Canadian tariffs, Chinese tariffs then Covid, its truly a perfect storm.
    Supply is the issue, as bad as Covid got in the US, South America, where we get a huge supply of our building products, is still raging, Im sure you see the news reports. Only about 3% of the population has been vaccinated and healthcare is not even close to what the US has. With China being pretty much cut off because of tariffs, production had to move to other SE Asian countries, when Covid hit travel restrictions stopped this from happening. Now they are able to travel spool up times for these new mills are extremely slow.
    The largest factor now is Ocean freight and the clogging of all our ports. Last year we were importing millwork for $2000 per container, now its $12,000. Not to mention transportation in the US has gone up exponentially as well.
    The days of $5 7/16 OSB and $3 studs is over. I believe we are in a new normal on pricing. Will it come down again? Certainly but not back to the cheap levels everyone is used to. Its going to take some time for a market correction and I don't see that happening until late 2022.
    Just my 2 cents
     

    The D

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  • Apr 11, 2020
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    I’m in the Denver north ‘burbs and can’t wait to sell my house for double what we paid for it 7yrs ago.
     
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    vinniedelpino

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    Sep 27, 2020
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    idk but I'm selling my rental property to take advantage of it.

    owned it for 5 years, rented it out for 2. possibility of making $80k on it. why not
    Watch out for depreciation recapture. If it was only rented for 2 years it won't be bad, but ever year I have clients that are shocked at their tax balance due from selling a rental.

    Sometimes it's worth keeping just to avoid the tax man running away with your gains.
     

    jmp1

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    Mar 25, 2011
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    I work for one of the largest Wholesale Building Product Distribution companies in the US. Have been here for over 20 years. In my time I have seen the lumber and panel markets come and go. I went though the screaming market from 04-06 when you didn't have to be a salesman to sell, just needed material. Then went through the housing bubble in 07-08 and the terrible years that followed.
    I have never seen anything like what we are going through now. With housing inventories at all time lows, Canadian tariffs, Chinese tariffs then Covid, its truly a perfect storm.
    Supply is the issue, as bad as Covid got in the US, South America, where we get a huge supply of our building products, is still raging, Im sure you see the news reports. Only about 3% of the population has been vaccinated and healthcare is not even close to what the US has. With China being pretty much cut off because of tariffs, production had to move to other SE Asian countries, when Covid hit travel restrictions stopped this from happening. Now they are able to travel spool up times for these new mills are extremely slow.
    The largest factor now is Ocean freight and the clogging of all our ports. Last year we were importing millwork for $2000 per container, now its $12,000. Not to mention transportation in the US has gone up exponentially as well.
    The days of $5 7/16 OSB and $3 studs is over. I believe we are in a new normal on pricing. Will it come down again? Certainly but not back to the cheap levels everyone is used to. Its going to take some time for a market correction and I don't see that happening until late 2022.
    Just my 2 cents
    This.....
    Here in komifornia you also have absolutely insane standards that drive the cost to build through the roof. Almost unobtainable energy calcs, fire sprinkler systems and the green dream.
    Trying to build a house right now and the bullshit added nearly 100,000 to the cost. For nothing of value to me. People cry there's no affordable housing....well duh... no wonder. Fuck Newsom and his liberal bullshit 🤬🤬
     

    WDN-K-9

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  • May 29, 2008
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    Here is the same. Prices are stupid now, plus the mass exodus of other states have just decreased surplus. I sold my home and played weeks of hardcore back and forth to barely break even, dude from Michigan that got it flipped it a couple of months ago for almost 70 grand over what he paid. Makes me want to drink heavy and puke thinking about it. Some contracts here are being dropped by sellers because people are busting in and offering 50+ over the previous deal and offering to reimburse the other buyers for their deposit plus a little running around change. They can afford to tell the other offer to take a hike. Now, builders are stopping wood framing construction because a 2x4 cost 9 bucks? So, yep, surplus is going down, rapidly.

    But personally, market is only going to support this shit so long. Then it’s going to rain
     
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    Painless300

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    Dec 2, 2013
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    I am in GA, if I were to build a 2000 sq/ft house today it would cost $25K more for just the framing package than it did a little over 1 year ago. That does not even take into consideration the pricing increases of doors and windows. Not to mention lead times on pretty much all building products have doubled.
    Not a good time to buy, build or remodel!
     
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    Gommer

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    Jul 4, 2019
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    I live on Zillow watching what's happening and pricing. Today there are 52 agent listing in approx. 30 sq. miles of well developed suburban area in a North suburb of Denver. There are 42 rentals available in the same search area. This amounts to nearly zero inventory.

    It's getting worse, not better. I can't believe how little inventory is available and how quickly even the most dilapidated homes sell for.

    What's your area look like?

    I live in NW Arkansas, the market is dead here. It's a combination of many things but the big ones are:
    1) People are not moving away out of the area
    2) People are moving, in large numbers, from shithole blue areas to NWA to escape the blue shithole they created
    3) People in the area are not upgrading homes, they're staying in their old home and settling in
    4) Trump and Biden flinging out cash like it was going out of style (it is) has created more new first time home buyers than ever


    I'm seeing this in a big way when it comes to hiring, too. People are staying in their jobs.
     
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    HeavyAssault

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  • Feb 14, 2011
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    There's no shortage of housing, it's an overabundance of people not wanting to work hard to afford a house they would live in.
     

    WDN-K-9

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  • May 29, 2008
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    I am picking up my keys tomorrow to a new place in Commerce City near Bull's Run,

    the prices are starting to creep up, I grabbed this one just before they started to move up the numbers, it was fast, I was hunting for a few weeks, and noticed things start to change
    It is very fast, we are trying to find a place for my nephew right now and it’s moving so fast here they are going site unseen
     

    kthomas

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    Jun 17, 2009
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    Prices are shooting up in Tucson. I can probably sell my house for $200K more then what I bought it for 2 years ago.

    Apparently the fastest growing real estate market in Tucson is the ~$3-3.5 million range, all the damn Californians moving in :mad:
     

    Not a Sniper

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  • It is very fast, we are trying to find a place for my nephew right now and it’s moving so fast here they are going site unseen
    We were looking; stuff was moving so fast we figured we'd need to rent a place for a month to be local when something opens up and pounce on it.

    The market is so bloated, not sure we can justify the extra costs now.

    Just gotta wait for the sock puppet to crash the economy I reckon.
     

    HeavyAssault

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  • Feb 14, 2011
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    For your statement to be accurate, the homes would have to not be selling. That is not the case, the homes are selling.

    For your statement to be accurate, homes would need to be selling EVERYWHERE......that's not the case.
     

    MJF

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  • Jun 14, 2005
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    I'm a Realtor in L.A. The market here is insane! We are routinely getting 100K over ask in 1-4 days! It is difficult to get a clients offer accepted with the fierce competition. I just put a 2 Bed home into escrow for $1,275,000 in 2 days. Agents are calling me totally pissed that we accepted an offer so fast. I tell them "early bird gets the worm"
     
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    Biggie1976

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    I’m 13 miles south of Charlotte and it’s booming here. Our house right now is worth 100k more than what we paid 2 years ago. When we sold in 2019 our house was bought site unseen by the husband away on business. He signed the contract out of town and didn’t see the house he bought for 2 more weeks. And that was May 2019. It’s been crazy here in this area for a few years now
     

    kindabitey

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  • Feb 13, 2017
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    I'm a Realtor in L.A. The market here is insane! We are routinely getting 100K over ask in 1-4 days! It is difficult to get a clients offer accepted with the fierce competition. I just put a 2 Bed home into escrow for $1,275,000 in 2 days. Agents are calling me totally pissed that we accepted an offer so fast. I tell them "early bird gets the worm"
    I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure this sort of thing led up to the crash around ‘08.
    When I called about pre-approval, they said I was good for 300K. No fucking way I could afford that.
     

    Romeo458

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    Sep 20, 2019
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    Two families, both part of my little tribe decided they were going to move into my area so that we would all be closer together. One of them moved just before the Rona and had a smorgasbord of houses to choose from. The other is in progress to move earlier than they planned and the market is considerably trimmed down. Is definitely interesting, makes me think that aside from that and a massive surplus of cash thrown into the market recently that something is going to happen sooner than we think.
     
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    MJF

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  • Jun 14, 2005
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    I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure this sort of thing led up to the crash around ‘08.
    When I called about pre-approval, they said I was good for 300K. No fucking way I could afford that.
    Getting a loan here is much harder now. In L.A it is all about a clients debt to income ratio. The buyers we are seeing are super qualified and lenders are not making any risky loans. There is so much demand they are pretty tough.
     

    MJF

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    We are also getting so many offers that we will not accept an offer that has a low down payment / high loan amount. Or a buyer who can barely afford the payments. The DTI has to be less than 30% or your offer does not even get countered.
     
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    Gommer

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    For your statement to be accurate, homes would need to be selling EVERYWHERE......that's not the case.

    Uh....

    Let's get back to your original statement. I didn't think you'd actually try to defend this retardation so I was only jestingly going to point it out;

    "There's no shortage of housing, it's an overabundance of people not wanting to work hard to afford a house they would live in."

    This statement does not align with your statement that homes would need to be selling "everywhere." They're literally not even related. What you've done is found yourself to be wrong and so you're trying to change your argument. Very common tactic used by abusers and the mainstream media.

    So, based on your 'new' logic, as long as somewhere in the universe a home is not selling -- there's no housing shortage... This is your new logic, of course, because your previous logic was that people were just "not wanting to work hard to afford a house."

    I think your definition of shortage does not align with... well, anyone else. After all, it's clearly not an overabundance of people not wanting to work hard to afford a house they would live in because houses are selling some places. /eyeroll
     

    HeavyAssault

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  • Feb 14, 2011
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    Not my logic...just correcting yours.

    I stand by my statement.

    So, based on your 'new' logic, as long as somewhere in the universe a home is not selling -- there's no housing shortage... This is your new logic, of course, because your previous logic was that people were just "not wanting to work hard to afford a house."
    This is as dumb a using a pipe wrench on a wood screw. Good to see you are willing to show your ignorance.
     
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    Ravenworks

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  • Feb 8, 2019
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    My home sold in 1.5 days cash.
    I knew it was going to go quick because it was a nice place, move in ready.
    Everything was new, but I was surprised when the guy said cash.
    They didn't argue the price nothing.
     

    kenny1773

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    Jun 7, 2019
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    I need to move and just bought a house, if there was any way I could delay it I would

    Houses are selling same day, if not in 5 minutes, site unseen and no inspection
    I overpaid by about $20k to get a house I want and I got an inspection
    My logic is someone is going to overpay me to get my current house that is going on the market in about 2 weeks

    I will be the only house for sale in my stupidly LARGE neighborhood, so I am sure it will get bid up and sell quick

    Yes it is crazy stupid insane to be buying a house right now. My fear is that if something goes wrong that I can't fix or control, I am without a house.
     
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    sirhrmechanic

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    Town next ours had 52 housing starts last summer. Most since 1949. All city retards moving up to work from home and Dick up rural America.

    I am visiting sepa where they have fucked up one of the most beautiful areas of America with their Audis and woke bs.

    We won’t keep these tards In the cities. So look upon them as resources. And by that I mean prey.

    Sirhr
     

    Davo308

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    Feb 18, 2019
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    Socal is crazy right now. Also, many cities were rezoned so there is a massive influx of LA residents inland, renting now.

    A friend sold his 6 acre, 6000 square ft ranch for 900k recently. It was on the market for just over a week. He bought that ranch for 200k in 2001.