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Inflation.......... ?

U.S. wholesale prices rose sharply in July for the sixth month in a row and offered little evidence that a big wave of inflation is on the verge of cresting
They just pushed through a $5 trillion package and the tax revenue of $2.6 to cover it. Except the Potato says that they are going to tax the rich and corporations to pay for it. Aaand the stoopid think that the rich and corporations actually pay taxes. Double up on that inflation!!
Where's @Choid to tell us about it only being temporary. Like I said a few weeks ago. It's only temporary until it's not. Government taxation will ensure that it is here to stay
 
They just pushed through a $5 trillion package and the tax revenue of $2.6 to cover it. Except the Potato says that they are going to tax the rich and corporations to pay for it. Aaand the stoopid think that the rich and corporations actually pay taxes. Double up on that inflation!!
Where's @Choid to tell us about it only being temporary. Like I said a few weeks ago. It's only temporary until it's not. Government taxation will ensure that it is here to stay
I'm just waiting for one of you guy's to call "Bull shit" on the Government numbers..... In my mind, I already have.
 
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Holy crap, that's a hell of an accurate metaphor.

I wish more people had better memories of that period, because it would potentially make for better decisions in the upcoming months and perhaps a softer landing. Instead, we'll get a bunch of unnecessarily repeated mistakes, in addition to the stuff that was genuinely unexpected.
Yeah, tell me. I lost close to 300K in my retirement investments that year.
 
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Filtering down:

With the COVID pandemic fueling sky-high construction costs, the Ascension Parish school district will re-bid the new Prairieville High School as two separate, pared-down construction projects, after initial bids came in at close to $100 million — the School Board has $79.5 million budgeted for the new school.

The district expects to put out the two bids in the coming months, one for the academic portion of the campus and the other for site work, like parking, drainage and athletics. The new plans for the school are of a smaller scale than the original plans, but there is an option to restore anything not included once construction costs fall to pre-pandemic levels.

The capacity of the new school will shrink from 1,900-2,100 students to 1,670-1,900 students.

 
If your natural gas heating is 70% higher this winter than last winter... How will that effect your budget ?

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)Commodity​

3.97+0.12+3.12%

Up 70% for the year
 
Downward spiral
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Household debt rose by its highest dollar amount in 14 years during the second quarter, thanks mostly to a surge in the housing market that brought the collective American IOU to just shy of $15 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
Total debt balances jumped $313 billion in the April-to-June period, the sharpest rise since the same period in 2007.
As a share of debt, that represented a 2.1% increase, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2013.

 
Drought is blistering key U.S. cash crops, further elevating prices for staples including corn and wheat.


The punishing dynamics of a torrid summer were evident this month on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, an annual event in which farmers visit key growing areas across the grain belt to gather data on the coming harvest. Driving along state Route 14 outside of Verdigre, Neb., Randy Wiese turned to see a farmer harvesting hay. The piles were small.


“That farmer is sick to his stomach,” said Mr. Wiese, who farms 800 acres of soybeans and corn in Lake Park, Iowa.

 
Lumber is coming back down. 3/4" plywood at $31, OSB still high. Stock Market on fire.
 
I’ve laid in a decent supply of flour.

Stonks ripping as usual.

Haven’t seen butterfingers on the shelf in awhile.

Postage stamps are $.55!!!
 
Up 5.5% in about a month... Costco
 

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Food Inflation Is Here to Stay, As Evidenced By the Biden Regime’s Quiet Food Stamp Increase​

The Biden administration has revised the nutrition standards of the food stamp program and prompted the largest permanent increase to benefits in the program’s history, a move that will give poor people more power to fill their grocery carts but add billions of dollars to the cost of a program that feeds one in eight Americans.


Under rules to be announced on Monday and put in place in October, average benefits will rise more than 25 percent from prepandemic levels. All 42 million people in the program will receive additional aid. The move does not require congressional approval, and unlike the large pandemic-era expansions, which are starting to expire, the changes are intended to last.


 
Read an interesting headline this morning:

Most stocks are trading lower even as S&P 500, Nasdaq rise toward records

Starting to smell like a rigged market. Curious how long they can keep bumping up the index funds as the other's tank.
Well, there's lots of signs that things are going to blow at some point in the near future. Even if we were on good economic and financial footing prior to biden and covid (which we of course weren't), the insanity that's been done with M1 alone is enough to cause a catastrophic result.

Then with biden and the dems just blowing it all up, it's going to be sooner rather than later.
 
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There is a lot of speculation as to why the economy is slowing down.

Ford sales fall 27% in June amid lingering chip shortage

It could be the chip shortage. It could be the uncertainty of the near future. It could be that inflation has cut into the family budget. It could be the break down of the supply chain...

I'm starting to observe more safe clean outs here on the Hide. More notes of people selling off stuff, across the board, in order to finance a new project.

Initial filings for unemployment insurance fell last week to their lowest levels since March 2020 in another sign that the labor market is gradually improving from the Covid-19 era, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

 
I travel a lot. Ford dealerships across most of middle-America are almost empty of new vehicles. Most lots have a new vehicle in about 1 in 5 spaces. Want a Jeep wrangler? My two dealerships have around 3 vehicles in stock (between them) when they should have about 100. Definite supply problems in new car production. GM/Chevy seem to be in the same boat.
 
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I travel a lot. Ford dealerships across most of middle-America are almost empty of new vehicles. Most lots have a new vehicle in about 1 in 5 spaces. Want a Jeep wrangler? My two dealerships have around 3 vehicles in stock (between them) when they should have about 100. Definite supply problems in new car production. GM/Chevy seem to be in the same boat.
Toyota dealerships are like that around me. They’ll have vehicles space along the perimeter, but the rest of the lot is empty.
 
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When these discussions come up among friends someone always ask "Where did the people go" ? Applications for unemployment benefits are down yet there are "Help Wanted" signs on every small business. The mega businesses are saying they will be hiring 1,000's in the near future. Perhaps when the evictions start taking place the workers will show up.... IDK
 
A friend has a Honda CR-V (2001 Model)..... Had to change the alternator our... $600 at an independent shop.
Costly to keep an old one going.
 
Why look at individual states... Unless I missed something we are still ONE country....
Depending on the leisure and hospitality sector to pull America up by the boot straps is a pure fantasy.
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WASHINGTON, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy created the fewest jobs in seven months in August as hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector stalled amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections, which weighed on demand at restaurants and hotels.

 
London (CNN Business)Aluminum prices have reached their highest level in more than a decade following a coup in Guinea, a major supplier of the main ore used to produce the metal.
The price of aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.8% to $2,775.50 per metric ton on Monday after political turmoil broke out in the West African country over the weekend, when a military officer broadcast a statement that the nation's constitution had been dissolved. An adviser to President Alpha Conde told CNN that Conde was under arrest and that a coup had taken place.

 
When I read the term "Force Majeure" in a financial article.... The hair on the back of my neck stands up. Same feeling as speeding along, down hill on a winding mountain road and having the brake peddle go to the floor.
______________________
(Bloomberg) -- Fertilizer prices are soaring after the world’s largest nitrogen facility had to declare a force majeure.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. said on Sept. 3 that it can’t fill orders from its Donaldsonville, Louisiana, nitrogen complex, which was closed ahead of Hurricane Ida, according to a letter seen by Bloomberg. That’s stoking fears of production losses at a time when supplies are already tight.

Fertilizer prices are already high, and that’s adding to increasing costs for farmers, who are paying more for everything from land and seeds to equipment. The higher costs of production may mean more food inflation is on the way. Global fertilizer costs touched near-decade highs in recent weeks, becoming expensive enough where growers may have to curb purchases.

 
I think these government numbers are low... But, that is to be expected
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Overall producer prices are up 8.3% in August from a year earlier though, up from 7.8% in the prior month. That’s the largest gain since the data was first collected in November 2010.
Core prices are up 6.3% from a year earlier, up from 6.1% in July. That’s the largest gain since the data was first calculated in August 2014.

 
Up for the year - 117%

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)Commodity​

5.16+0.20+4.03%
10:21:00 AM
MI Indication
Yeah nothing to see here......

I had to go through beautiful Midland a few weeks ago. The price is up cause there flaring it all off. One location had the two biggest flares I think I have ever seen.
 
Median home sale prices nationwide increased 16% in August compared to a year ago

One year +16% is pricing many buyers out of the market. But the money they are banking while waiting is losing ground.

 

We’ll just mint our way out of it. If you don’t own hard assets in full, you’re low IQ.
But, wouldn't you rather pay back a large loan latter with effectively worthless amount?
After massive inflation, $100K is worth way less in the future. Having cash right now is the low IQ move. Leverage it.
 
But, wouldn't you rather pay back a large loan latter with effectively worthless amount?
After massive inflation, $100K is worth way less in the future. Having cash right now is the low IQ move. Leverage it.
That would make sense if pay was matching. I mean, if I could predict that I’d get paid $100 an hour in the future due to inflation, then sure. Leveraging yourself to the gills on cheap money would make sense.

I buy assets that tend to appreciate in value. What I buy now, and hold will get a much greater return than the shit .04% interest cash in the bank gets, but I’m not using debt to buy it. That’s dumb.
 
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My career was in the Heavy Industrial world. We built these plants and used their products. The chemical and petroleum plants use these products. Needless to mention oxygen keeps many people alive.. CO2 gives your soft drinks the fizz and blankets your food products to keep them fresh... To me, this is a staggering announcement. There is nothing in this article calling these increases "transitory inflation".... The industrial heavy hitters are passing the increase on to the consumer.
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Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. on Monday said it will raises prices for merchant customers in North America, effective Oct. 1 or as contracts permit.
The industrial gases company said it will increase product pricing, monthly service charges, and surcharge. The adjustments will include up to 20% for liquid nitrogen and liquid oxygen, up to 15% for liquid carbon dioxide and up to 15% for monthly service charges, the company said..

 
FedEx Inc. FDX, said late Monday it was hiking its shipping rates on Jan. 3, 2022. The company said rates will increase an average of 5.9% for U.S. domestic, U.S. export, and U.S. import FedEx Express, as well as for FedEx Ground, Ground Economy, and Home Delivery
 
FedEx Inc. FDX, said late Monday it was hiking its shipping rates on Jan. 3, 2022. The company said rates will increase an average of 5.9% for U.S. domestic, U.S. export, and U.S. import FedEx Express, as well as for FedEx Ground, Ground Economy, and Home Delivery
Does this also mean that they will stop losing stuff?
 
Or there's the possibility you've been wrong the whole thread. When they ended extended unemployment benefits people didn't run right out and fill all those job openings causing all this transitory inflation. Why is that?

View attachment 7696278

this graph is garbage. not only is the "(as ratio to May 2021)" misleading, the mouth-breather who made this meant to say June 2021.

post the real numbers.

Net change in payroll employment:

May- 614k
June- 962k
July-1.053 Mil

per this source.
 
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FedEx Inc. FDX, said late Monday it was hiking its shipping rates on Jan. 3, 2022. The company said rates will increase an average of 5.9% for U.S. domestic, U.S. export, and U.S. import FedEx Express, as well as for FedEx Ground, Ground Economy, and Home Delivery

And.. that doesn't include the coming Nov. 1st price increases for fuel surcharges.

 
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"The real numbers."




so you're going on august numbers?

August new payroll only totaled 235k. Which would mean that the jobs that were added came in june and july after the unemployment ended. june and july was almost a Million added each month.

one other factor that you want to ignore is most states that ended unemployment early also ended their lockdowns on businesses and restrictions much earlier too, which means people who wanted to go back to work were able to much earlier.
 
Insurance rates will rise... Across the board.

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Many homeowners looking to buy new policies under revamped rates for the National Flood Insurance Program are getting sticker shock, with prices for even low-risk areas in some cases running three times higher than the current premiums.

The rates -- set to start going into effect Oct. 1 for new policies -- have prompted members of Louisiana's congressional delegation to ask FEMA for a delay, arguing the crushing premium hikes are unfair and could destabilize the program by prompting many people to cancel their policies.

 
The cost to ship containers overseas has soared in recent months. Getting a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York cost about $2,000 a year and a half ago, just before the Covid pandemic. Now, it runs some $16,000, according to Bank of America.

 
“Transitory” inflation could mean one of three scenarios:


  1. Prices rise and plunge
  2. Prices rise and stay where they are
  3. Prices rise and continue to rise, but more slowly
________________________________________
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard on Monday laid out a strong case for the central bank to maintain low interest rates, saying that the spike seen in inflation this year was transitory and the labor market was far from healed. ... Brainard said she didn't see wage gains were pushing inflations higher.

 
“Transitory” inflation could mean one of three scenarios:


  1. Prices rise and plunge
  2. Prices rise and stay where they are
  3. Prices rise and continue to rise, but more slowly
________________________________________
Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard on Monday laid out a strong case for the central bank to maintain low interest rates, saying that the spike seen in inflation this year was transitory and the labor market was far from healed. ... Brainard said she didn't see wage gains were pushing inflations higher.


She is dumb
 
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I'm glad my two, fairly new vehicles('17 & '19) are paid off. I just hope they never break. Looked at the new Bronco, and wasn't very impressed, for what they want for them and I buy the "fully loaded" packages/trim levels. Mac
I work in the auto industry, rumblings indicate that despite the ever-rising prices, manufacturers are working to make vehicles only last 6 years. I really do miss my 74 Dodge pickup.