- Thread starter hereinaz
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Which invoice number did you use when paying the balance? Pretty sure they wanted you to use the new ‘16xx’ number in the notes and not the original but I could be wrong.
But Ulv61, you have to remember, that 600 orders includes orders for Mausingfields, Barlocks, scope rings and mags, and whatever other orders they receive, all of which have already been filled. So, you are probably not 600 orders behind Hereinaz. I would bet half that. All their orders run sequentially. I ordered some mags in March. My order number was 3603 and has already been filled. I'm just waiting on a rifle to put them in.
How about some math?
The Nucleus pre-order was open for a little more than two weeks. Orders numbers were roughly 2,300 to 3,200, about 900 total or about 450 a week.
Between the end of the pre-order and your order in March (4-8 weeks), order numbers were 3,200 to 3,600 which is probably back to their regular order volume and suggests 50-100 orders a week.
450 total orders per week minus 100 non Nucleus orders is 350. Multiply by two weeks and you have about 700 Nucleus pre-orders.
Some people ordered both long actions and short actions on the same order so that suggests the number is somewhat higher.
We don't know how PVA's second 50 or more actions are being accounted for either. They might be included in that number but I'm guessing they were not.
There were lots of Nucleus pre-orders. Order numbers are probably a pretty good way to project your wait after we figure out the rate ARC can ship the Nuclei.
The Nucleus pre-order was open for a little more than two weeks. Orders numbers were roughly 2,300 to 3,200, about 900 total or about 450 a week.
Between the end of the pre-order and your order in March (4-8 weeks), order numbers were 3,200 to 3,600 which is probably back to their regular order volume and suggests 50-100 orders a week.
450 total orders per week minus 100 non Nucleus orders is 350. Multiply by two weeks and you have about 700 Nucleus pre-orders.
Some people ordered both long actions and short actions on the same order so that suggests the number is somewhat higher.
We don't know how PVA's second 50 or more actions are being accounted for either. They might be included in that number but I'm guessing they were not.
There were lots of Nucleus pre-orders. Order numbers are probably a pretty good way to project your wait after we figure out the rate ARC can ship the Nuclei.
Or. We wait patiently, accept that there are unknown and unknowable variables, embrace the uncertainty, and keep our sanity.
You guys are all absolutely hilarious!! I laugh and shake my head at all of this inane obsessing about numbers and ridiculous speculation. Thanks for the continuing entertainment. 
It’s a beautiful day outside (here in Florida) go shoot something!
I agree and normally would be doing just that today. Unfortunately there's a little matter of a close friend's funeral that takes precedence today.
Got to enjoy life guys, it could be much shorter than you think! Do what you want to do and don’t be lazy, get out there!
Sorry if you guys think I need to calm down. I'm just reiterating thoughts I had back in February with new details as the picture gets filled in. In this case it's a revised order number and an order number from March.
The math is simple.
Also if you notice, what I'm saying is the line is long, I'm not trying to convince anyone that it's shorter than the numbers suggest.
Once we see 2-3 batches delivered by ARC we can estimate the production rate and project delivery dates. Also simple math.
I spend a lot more time writing about it than thinking about when my action will arrive.
Honestly I spent more time yesterday making a joke with two Chinese foam bananas.
I'm not going to explain that. For the people that think I'm nuts, you can go down a hole thinking about that.
The math is simple.
Also if you notice, what I'm saying is the line is long, I'm not trying to convince anyone that it's shorter than the numbers suggest.
Once we see 2-3 batches delivered by ARC we can estimate the production rate and project delivery dates. Also simple math.
I spend a lot more time writing about it than thinking about when my action will arrive.
Honestly I spent more time yesterday making a joke with two Chinese foam bananas.
I'm not going to explain that. For the people that think I'm nuts, you can go down a hole thinking about that.
The math is simple lol. Let's pull random numbers out of our ass and come up with...you still have no fucking clue when you will have them in hand. This shit is good entertainment!
You have no clue how many are or aren't nucleus orders along with how many orders are for multiple actions. You are guessing and nothing more than that. You are welcome to call it whatever you like though, we will sit back and laugh at you some more. It's just like the barrel swap thread where you've never changed a barrel but know the best setup to have.
Well, I have changed barrels so I'm not the one making stuff up.
I've bowed out of that thread for now because I'm going to wait for my Barloc and Nucleus so I can test it for RTZ and go back with results.
That should be good for a laugh (for me).
I wonder if I should try to explain to you the difference between random, a guess and an estimate? I'm a pretty good teacher but maybe not that good. I think I'll skip it.
I've bowed out of that thread for now because I'm going to wait for my Barloc and Nucleus so I can test it for RTZ and go back with results.
That should be good for a laugh (for me).
I wonder if I should try to explain to you the difference between random, a guess and an estimate? I'm a pretty good teacher but maybe not that good. I think I'll skip it.
I hate to break it to you but the only one being laughed at is you and in multiple threads I might add.
It may not be random numbers but it is certainly full of missing information which amounts to pure speculation.
What’s the over under on how long it takes after these invoices get paid that they actually start shipping?
What’s the line on how big these batches are?
What are the odds of basically anything?
What’s the over under on how long it takes after these invoices get paid that they actually start shipping?
What’s the line on how big these batches are?
What are the odds of basically anything?
And, in the end,what difference does it make?
That missing information is why the only things I'm guessing on are total number of pre-orders and batch size.
Ted seems like an ethical businessman so if the line was three weeks from billing to shipping, I would want to take the under or if it's going to take longer, I would like to be told that when I get the bill.
For batch size, that's tricky because I'm sure ARC wants to be able to make small batches to keep their lead time down for orders made after they fulfill the pre-order. They could be running larger batches now to try to catch up. But smaller batches means they can bill the invoices and get cash flow which might be important to their business (the new machine might influence this). If the over-under was set at 50.5 I take the under. 25.5 would be a harder decision but I think I would still take the under. At 9.5, I would probably take the over but that's a gamble too.
One thing said toward the end of SHOT show was that waiting an hour to order could cost you weeks of wait. To me that says they were selling a batch an hour and they plan to complete batches about every two weeks. That's what we call reading between the lines.
If the pre-order was about 900 and let's say half were sold in the last 5 days when they were saying that, that's 90 a day which could mean about 10 orders an hour for about a 9 hour day or about 5 an hour for an 18 hour day.
It suggests small batches which coming from my previous manufacturing background makes sense.
At least I think that was the plan in January. Obviously things have changed since then. Probably by the end of the pre-orders they figured out that 20 receivers a month isn't going to cut it with the number of orders received, then they had the supplier issue.
So now the question is have they changed batch size or are they just going to start batches closer together? It could be both.
There is a lot of speculation in that but its not random, it's looking at all the pieces and seeing how they fit.
This reminds me of a woman I know (just an aquaintance) who told me she was taking a vacation. An hour later I said to her "have fun in Chicago" (or somewhere, I don't recall) and she said "how the hell do you know where I'm going?", what I had done was look at the Dave Mathews Band tour page to see where they were playing because she was a huge DMB fan.
First you guess, then you see if the pieces fit, then have some confidence.
Ted seems like an ethical businessman so if the line was three weeks from billing to shipping, I would want to take the under or if it's going to take longer, I would like to be told that when I get the bill.
For batch size, that's tricky because I'm sure ARC wants to be able to make small batches to keep their lead time down for orders made after they fulfill the pre-order. They could be running larger batches now to try to catch up. But smaller batches means they can bill the invoices and get cash flow which might be important to their business (the new machine might influence this). If the over-under was set at 50.5 I take the under. 25.5 would be a harder decision but I think I would still take the under. At 9.5, I would probably take the over but that's a gamble too.
One thing said toward the end of SHOT show was that waiting an hour to order could cost you weeks of wait. To me that says they were selling a batch an hour and they plan to complete batches about every two weeks. That's what we call reading between the lines.
If the pre-order was about 900 and let's say half were sold in the last 5 days when they were saying that, that's 90 a day which could mean about 10 orders an hour for about a 9 hour day or about 5 an hour for an 18 hour day.
It suggests small batches which coming from my previous manufacturing background makes sense.
At least I think that was the plan in January. Obviously things have changed since then. Probably by the end of the pre-orders they figured out that 20 receivers a month isn't going to cut it with the number of orders received, then they had the supplier issue.
So now the question is have they changed batch size or are they just going to start batches closer together? It could be both.
There is a lot of speculation in that but its not random, it's looking at all the pieces and seeing how they fit.
This reminds me of a woman I know (just an aquaintance) who told me she was taking a vacation. An hour later I said to her "have fun in Chicago" (or somewhere, I don't recall) and she said "how the hell do you know where I'm going?", what I had done was look at the Dave Mathews Band tour page to see where they were playing because she was a huge DMB fan.
First you guess, then you see if the pieces fit, then have some confidence.
Well no hurry here, just waiting for feedback from the rank and file.
LMAO. I'm in no hurry but I guess I could've moved up delivery if I had only ordered my action with what I ordered as the spare bolthead.
Any chance we can turn this thread into something like an ATF Forms wait time thread? That might help with the speculation. How about everyone who has an order in post what you ordered, when, order number, if you’ve been asked to send payment, and if you’ve received your action. I’ll start.
Short action right handed with 308 bolt face and 30 moa scope base. Order 237X placed on Jan 16th. I asked for a 0.535 (magnum) bolt face via email on Feb 05, but never got confirmation my order was changed. No on payment and no on receiving the action.
Short action right handed with 308 bolt face and 30 moa scope base. Order 237X placed on Jan 16th. I asked for a 0.535 (magnum) bolt face via email on Feb 05, but never got confirmation my order was changed. No on payment and no on receiving the action.
rh short 308 invoice #235x no email yet but looks like im getting close.
Mine is order #287x, for a .308 bolt face. Does that make me next??
Mine is order #287x, for a .308 bolt face. Does that make me next??
Hell no Lash, I'm 258x so mine should be tomorrow and yours will probably be the day after that. If of course I've done my math and looked at the stars correctly.
We are just waiting for the springs to be delivered from the supplier. Hopefully just a couple weeks. It seems everyone is super busy and lead times are long.
One clarification, If you ordered the short action .308 bolt with an extra .223 bolt head would the action ship first with the extra bolt head later or would the whole order be held until the extra bolt heads are finished?
Whew. Woe to the poor fellas who release new products, you jackals are relentless rofl.
Ordered Jan 19th, at 5:38pm central time over the phone with Ted.
Short action right hand .308 bolt face 20MOA rail (Order # unknown. Just sent an email to Ted asking what it is.)
Added a Barloc on Jan 22 at about 5pm (Order #2665)
No email for final payment yet.
Short action right hand .308 bolt face 20MOA rail (Order # unknown. Just sent an email to Ted asking what it is.)
Added a Barloc on Jan 22 at about 5pm (Order #2665)
No email for final payment yet.
You will get it when you get it. Relax
Mines order 25## so hoping to get my email soon
The action would ship first. We will fill the additional bolt head orders a little later.
In business there are worse problems than having a bunch of customers in a hurry to give you more money.
This in encouraging to read; though I was much later, I am hoping to get mine this summer.
Excellent news; thanks for the update and clarification. Will your company reach out to the customer both via phone and E-Mail?
And I can assure there are better things than dealing with a mass of entitled children badgering you. Shit happens, don't pre-order products if you can't deal with potential delays.
One would think a lifetime of experience would leave you well equipped to answer this on your own.
Lets get this thread back on track: Order 2350 email received.
Issue has been resolved with ARC to my satisfaction. Please ignore.
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I do not recall that the deposit was refundable.
Sounds like you should just take delivery of the action and sell it here. I doubt you would have it very long.
Zero mention of no refund.
Hell I'll take it if ARC will transfer it to me.
edit: Assuming it's right hand, short action. Don't care on the bolt face, I have a .308 action/boltface and a separate magnum boltface on the way.
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The order page has changed so I cannot provide a link, but if you ordered directly from ARC the store page clearly stated that the deposit was non-refundable.
EDIT: found a link to the order page. The page no longer exists, but even the link itself contains the words "non-refundable-deposit": http://www.americanrifle.com/produc...n-26-with-deposit-425-non-refundable-deposit/
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