> I have a very astute friend that believes Putin will turn off the natural gas pipe line to Europe
Judging by US/EU official actions and general sentiment in population (this board and some of you are prime example of it) is that Russia is in fact an ENEMY. All of the actions are aimed against Russia either specific or in general therefore for Russians only logical and sane actions are to quit supplying their enemies refresh procedures and drill some red button pushing and send a clear message to populations in the West that if they allow themselves to be herded in present direction they will be blowing in the wind. West just keeps poking Russia it has done so as far back to medieval Sweden and last time it poked it poked good and almost got trampled in return (i still cannot understand why in '45 they simply did not wipe out all of the Germans a complete erasure as a demonstration of who is übermensch as you can clearly see that having buffer zone did not work - though i see post 1917 Soviet Union in a different light not so much as an enemy but a tool by elites to run the globe through bipolar system but thats another story) i believe Russians have learned this historical lessons and if poking strong enough again they will either choose extermination (all life on this planet that is an unavoidable fact when nukes start to fly) or complete and utter destruction of Europe up to the Portugal (which if rolling successful would lead to nuclear strike anyway) to never have to deal with poking again.
Here in EU we are being bombarded by press "Will we freeze this winter because of Putin" etc.. NO motherfuckers, you assholes (my countrymen and others in EU) who have no firewood will freeze because of your own stupidity and corrupt leaders (who will not freeze btw) and because Russia decided not to sell (free market anyone????) to their enemies and doublefaced slimy spineless assholes trying to fuck "their friends" over at every opportunity they get.
"The European Union’s 28 member states have been stockpiling gas in record quantities as they prepare for the possibility that Russia may turn off the tap that provides a vital energy lifeline to the continent. And for the first time ever, Europe’s collective storage tanks are almost full – containing almost 80 billion cubic metres of gas – almost a fifth of the bloc’s yearly useag"
Fear over Russian gas switch-off sees EU states stockpile supplies - Europe - World - The Independent Within 10 years China will be the only buyer of natural gas and oil from Russia. They will find out what "free' market negotiations are all about.
for every Russian action there will be a response. Most of the response to date has been capital flight.
"MOSCOW—Russia saw $74.6 billion in net capital outflow in the first half of 2014, more than for the whole of 2013, the central bank's data showed Wednesday.
The amount of capital leaving the country intensified this year as a result of the Ukrainian crisis, especially after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in March and the resulting Western sanctions that were imposed on it.
In the second quarter alone, Russia lost $25.8 billion in net capital outflow, following a loss of $48.8 billion in the first three months of the year.
If swaps and foreign-currency accounts were included in the outflow figure calculation, the net outflow would have been around $62 billion in the first-quarter—the highest quarterly outflow since the 2008 global financial crisis—and $12.3 billion in the second quarter."
Russia Sees Further Rise in Capital Flight - WSJ The second response will be more sanctions:Reuters) - The European Union tightened sanctions on Russia on Friday over its role in the Ukrainian conflict, restricting access to financing for top Russian banks, defense and energy firms and freezing the assets of senior politicians and rebel leaders.
The United States was set to follow suit with its own tougher sanctions later on Friday, heaping pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region and sent troops to back pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine."
EU raises pressure on Moscow with tougher sanctions | Reuters The third response will be the strengthening of resolve of former Soviet block countries to resist Russian military adventurism. Putin does not have the economy to match the west, its in fact a one trick pony. Oil & gas being the trick.
" Economy: Russia's weakening economy is heavily reliant on exports of oil and natural gas, with energy accounting for roughly 70% of annual exports. The consequences of a stoppage could be far more devastating to Russia than anyone else.
The Russian government is already forecasting that overall exports will decline by roughly 2% this year, and a gas disruption would make matters worse.
Gazprom's gas exports are worth about $66 billion a year, roughly 13% of total Russian exports of $515 billion. They also account for 5% of tax revenues.
Russia's economy is weaker than it was in 2009. Gross domestic product grew by about 1.3% last year compared to 3.4% in 2012. Many forecasters were expecting a slight upturn in 2014 but the standoff with Ukraine may mean it struggles to grow at all this year, according to some analysts. "
4 reasons Russia will keep gas exports flowing - Mar. 12, 2014 It doesn't have the military and Putin's decision to take personal control of the armaments industry will lead it no where." Putin said Russia's weapons modernization program for 2016-2025 should focus on building a new array of offensive weapons to provide a "guaranteed nuclear deterrent;" re-arming strategic and long-range aviation; creating an aerospace defense system and developing high-precision conventional weapons.
He would not elaborate on prospective weapons, but he and other officials have repeatedly boasted about new Russian nuclear missiles' capability to penetrate any prospective missile shield.
The Kremlin has bolstered defense spending in the past few years under an ambitious weapons modernization program that runs through 2020 and costs the equivalent of $540 billion."
Putin Promises New Weapons to Fend Western Threats - ABC News The "planned" expenditures over six years $100 billion less than the US budget for a single year. Which of course fails to account for the increase in defense expenditures that this Russian military adventurism will cause across Europe and any country bordering Russia.
Your "astute" friends are likely economic isolationists who believe that a tank can trump an election. Poland is a good example. Russian tanks didn't do it before and won't now.