As Russia has military bases (ports) in Syria, and are allied with Assad, what do you think his response (Russia's) will be if we start heavily arming an army to take over Syria will be? I'm wondering, as American Air Craft enter Syrian Airspace, will Russia sit back and allow their friend Assad to be ousted, under the guise of "we're after ISIS, but will train and equip the army to oust you while we're at it"? I hope this thing doesn't turn into a really bad situation for the US, it could and could very quickly. I have a very astute friend that believes Putin will turn off the natural gas pipe line to Europe, if the EU countries join in the effort to oust Assad, as this could lead to the Russian ouster from their ports in Syria. Not to mention, it would make Russia look extremely unreliable as an friend/military ally. He also pointed out that ISIS may very well have advanced AA capability-some of Russia's newest along with some of ours-remember we gave the Muslim Brotherhood (ISIS) a huge $$$$ amount of advanced weapons in Egypt. I hope this thing has been Carefully thought out, and is not a knee jerk reaction.
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Well, with Putin "threatening" with nuclear weapons as we speak, we could take this alike what N korea has done in the past, or we could be in for a surprise. Either way, Russia in the past and the present has always been land grab happy. There has been countries in the past the same way and he may believe it's their time, again.
As for us giving weapons away, I say our current administration. Don't put Me! in the us part. (although I know what you mean)
Putin from what I see is like old mother Russia. They fought in WW2 and in the end, Russia wanted everything. It took our President to threaten Russia with our nuclear capacity. (in which I may add at the time, we were not ready to deploy any more nuclear bombs)
They wanted everything. And they still do. Old school thought on Marxist ways is don't pass up an opportunity. The opportunity is that there is Chaos around the world today. North Korea is sitting and waiting, Russia is playing their game, all the different terrorist organizations, and don't forget the countries that are barely surviving (civil wise)
As for "us" giving weapons, I don't think it's going to do us Justice anymore. It's getting to a point that we are only throwing gasoline on the fire instead of fighting fire with fire.
It might have worked in the past, but it's not going to work anymore.
As for the Arab spring, and I believe all this was "lit" with Egypt, was it not our very own president who was standing there in Egypt preaching like Rev Al , and Jesse J?
In my eyes, this was the point that went over the edge. Create chaos. Take advantage of the situation. Marxism. And people still don't believe the president is one.
As for us giving weapons away, I say our current administration. Don't put Me! in the us part. (although I know what you mean)
Putin from what I see is like old mother Russia. They fought in WW2 and in the end, Russia wanted everything. It took our President to threaten Russia with our nuclear capacity. (in which I may add at the time, we were not ready to deploy any more nuclear bombs)
They wanted everything. And they still do. Old school thought on Marxist ways is don't pass up an opportunity. The opportunity is that there is Chaos around the world today. North Korea is sitting and waiting, Russia is playing their game, all the different terrorist organizations, and don't forget the countries that are barely surviving (civil wise)
As for "us" giving weapons, I don't think it's going to do us Justice anymore. It's getting to a point that we are only throwing gasoline on the fire instead of fighting fire with fire.
It might have worked in the past, but it's not going to work anymore.
As for the Arab spring, and I believe all this was "lit" with Egypt, was it not our very own president who was standing there in Egypt preaching like Rev Al , and Jesse J?
In my eyes, this was the point that went over the edge. Create chaos. Take advantage of the situation. Marxism. And people still don't believe the president is one.
The Russians could cut off the Europeans from oil and gas and sell it elsewhere. They could also boost military aid to Syria to include sophisticated air defense weapons. I've read today on the BBC that Putin has said any bombing in Syria without UN approval would be a violation of International Law.
I agree that its practically going down like dominoes in areas that have just been getting worse and worse.
However, I don't think Obama wanted/planned this or really actively aided in it other than residue from his incompetence in dealing with some of those places.
Ukraine wants into NATO, Germany won't bet the farm on WW3 via having to protect them and Obama's metro-sexual ass isn't going to be directly involved in anything (why start now?). We may take some pot shots at Syria, Putin will do the same shit we did when they started with the Ukraine and it'll be a constant purse fight between the 2 on CNN until something else happens like another mini-war with Israel and whoever.
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Point taken. Keywords: "residue from his incompetence in dealing with some those places"
His intentions may not have been to create chaos, but neither is poking the bear or getting in the middle of officers when on duty. It may be all in honest to god's goodwill, however Foreign policy is not policy of the neighborhood. we all live in different neighborhoods, and there are different rules to each neighborhood.
I stand by what I said, I believe it created chaos. I bit more conservative, I might say less liberal with the gumbs.
His intentions may not have been to create chaos, but neither is poking the bear or getting in the middle of officers when on duty. It may be all in honest to god's goodwill, however Foreign policy is not policy of the neighborhood. we all live in different neighborhoods, and there are different rules to each neighborhood.
I stand by what I said, I believe it created chaos. I bit more conservative, I might say less liberal with the gumbs.
I think Putin has done a much better job than Obama in Syria. He had them give up their chemical weapons and it is now very clear that Assad is a better choice than the radical fundamentalist. Putin has outplayed Obama on every level and with every call because he doesn't respect him and he doesn't fell respected by him. Bush did a much better job of interacting with Putin.
Knowing the little I know about such matters it would not surprise me if there were behind the scene deals with the Russians and if we didn't have to inform them if we chose to attach targets in Syria. The Russians fear the fundamentalist more than we do as they share a border with Muslim countries and have a Muslim population of their own. They won't have a problem with us targeting ISIS but they will have a problem with us targeting their buddy Assad.
Knowing the little I know about such matters it would not surprise me if there were behind the scene deals with the Russians and if we didn't have to inform them if we chose to attach targets in Syria. The Russians fear the fundamentalist more than we do as they share a border with Muslim countries and have a Muslim population of their own. They won't have a problem with us targeting ISIS but they will have a problem with us targeting their buddy Assad.
Sounding like Korea/Vietnam all over again. We fly against those opposing the evil empire of Assad, and Ivan uses what he's shipped to Syria and sends his own up when the local talent isn't cutting it?
The end of that pool could get very deep indeed.
The end of that pool could get very deep indeed.
I sure as hell hope I'm wrong. We've been doing this shit by proxy for decades. Now is not the time for the gloves to come off with that megalomaniac prick Putin and drop the pretense of intermediaries and low-intensity conflicts.
> I have a very astute friend that believes Putin will turn off the natural gas pipe line to Europe
Judging by US/EU official actions and general sentiment in population (this board and some of you are prime example of it) is that Russia is in fact an ENEMY. All of the actions are aimed against Russia either specific or in general therefore for Russians only logical and sane actions are to quit supplying their enemies refresh procedures and drill some red button pushing and send a clear message to populations in the West that if they allow themselves to be herded in present direction they will be blowing in the wind. West just keeps poking Russia it has done so as far back to medieval Sweden and last time it poked it poked good and almost got trampled in return (i still cannot understand why in '45 they simply did not wipe out all of the Germans a complete erasure as a demonstration of who is übermensch as you can clearly see that having buffer zone did not work - though i see post 1917 Soviet Union in a different light not so much as an enemy but a tool by elites to run the globe through bipolar system but thats another story) i believe Russians have learned this historical lessons and if poking strong enough again they will either choose extermination (all life on this planet that is an unavoidable fact when nukes start to fly) or complete and utter destruction of Europe up to the Portugal (which if rolling successful would lead to nuclear strike anyway) to never have to deal with poking again.
Here in EU we are being bombarded by press "Will we freeze this winter because of Putin" etc.. NO motherfuckers, you assholes (my countrymen and others in EU) who have no firewood will freeze because of your own stupidity and corrupt leaders (who will not freeze btw) and because Russia decided not to sell (free market anyone????) to their enemies and doublefaced slimy spineless assholes trying to fuck "their friends" over at every opportunity they get.
Judging by US/EU official actions and general sentiment in population (this board and some of you are prime example of it) is that Russia is in fact an ENEMY. All of the actions are aimed against Russia either specific or in general therefore for Russians only logical and sane actions are to quit supplying their enemies refresh procedures and drill some red button pushing and send a clear message to populations in the West that if they allow themselves to be herded in present direction they will be blowing in the wind. West just keeps poking Russia it has done so as far back to medieval Sweden and last time it poked it poked good and almost got trampled in return (i still cannot understand why in '45 they simply did not wipe out all of the Germans a complete erasure as a demonstration of who is übermensch as you can clearly see that having buffer zone did not work - though i see post 1917 Soviet Union in a different light not so much as an enemy but a tool by elites to run the globe through bipolar system but thats another story) i believe Russians have learned this historical lessons and if poking strong enough again they will either choose extermination (all life on this planet that is an unavoidable fact when nukes start to fly) or complete and utter destruction of Europe up to the Portugal (which if rolling successful would lead to nuclear strike anyway) to never have to deal with poking again.
Here in EU we are being bombarded by press "Will we freeze this winter because of Putin" etc.. NO motherfuckers, you assholes (my countrymen and others in EU) who have no firewood will freeze because of your own stupidity and corrupt leaders (who will not freeze btw) and because Russia decided not to sell (free market anyone????) to their enemies and doublefaced slimy spineless assholes trying to fuck "their friends" over at every opportunity they get.
"The European Union’s 28 member states have been stockpiling gas in record quantities as they prepare for the possibility that Russia may turn off the tap that provides a vital energy lifeline to the continent. And for the first time ever, Europe’s collective storage tanks are almost full – containing almost 80 billion cubic metres of gas – almost a fifth of the bloc’s yearly useag"
Fear over Russian gas switch-off sees EU states stockpile supplies - Europe - World - The Independent
Within 10 years China will be the only buyer of natural gas and oil from Russia. They will find out what "free' market negotiations are all about.
for every Russian action there will be a response. Most of the response to date has been capital flight.
"MOSCOW—Russia saw $74.6 billion in net capital outflow in the first half of 2014, more than for the whole of 2013, the central bank's data showed Wednesday.
The amount of capital leaving the country intensified this year as a result of the Ukrainian crisis, especially after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in March and the resulting Western sanctions that were imposed on it.
In the second quarter alone, Russia lost $25.8 billion in net capital outflow, following a loss of $48.8 billion in the first three months of the year.
If swaps and foreign-currency accounts were included in the outflow figure calculation, the net outflow would have been around $62 billion in the first-quarter—the highest quarterly outflow since the 2008 global financial crisis—and $12.3 billion in the second quarter."
Russia Sees Further Rise in Capital Flight - WSJ
The second response will be more sanctions:Reuters) - The European Union tightened sanctions on Russia on Friday over its role in the Ukrainian conflict, restricting access to financing for top Russian banks, defense and energy firms and freezing the assets of senior politicians and rebel leaders.
The United States was set to follow suit with its own tougher sanctions later on Friday, heaping pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region and sent troops to back pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine."
EU raises pressure on Moscow with tougher sanctions | Reuters
The third response will be the strengthening of resolve of former Soviet block countries to resist Russian military adventurism. Putin does not have the economy to match the west, its in fact a one trick pony. Oil & gas being the trick.
" Economy: Russia's weakening economy is heavily reliant on exports of oil and natural gas, with energy accounting for roughly 70% of annual exports. The consequences of a stoppage could be far more devastating to Russia than anyone else.
The Russian government is already forecasting that overall exports will decline by roughly 2% this year, and a gas disruption would make matters worse.
Gazprom's gas exports are worth about $66 billion a year, roughly 13% of total Russian exports of $515 billion. They also account for 5% of tax revenues.
Russia's economy is weaker than it was in 2009. Gross domestic product grew by about 1.3% last year compared to 3.4% in 2012. Many forecasters were expecting a slight upturn in 2014 but the standoff with Ukraine may mean it struggles to grow at all this year, according to some analysts. "
4 reasons Russia will keep gas exports flowing - Mar. 12, 2014
It doesn't have the military and Putin's decision to take personal control of the armaments industry will lead it no where." Putin said Russia's weapons modernization program for 2016-2025 should focus on building a new array of offensive weapons to provide a "guaranteed nuclear deterrent;" re-arming strategic and long-range aviation; creating an aerospace defense system and developing high-precision conventional weapons.
He would not elaborate on prospective weapons, but he and other officials have repeatedly boasted about new Russian nuclear missiles' capability to penetrate any prospective missile shield.
The Kremlin has bolstered defense spending in the past few years under an ambitious weapons modernization program that runs through 2020 and costs the equivalent of $540 billion."
Putin Promises New Weapons to Fend Western Threats - ABC News
The "planned" expenditures over six years $100 billion less than the US budget for a single year. Which of course fails to account for the increase in defense expenditures that this Russian military adventurism will cause across Europe and any country bordering Russia.
Your "astute" friends are likely economic isolationists who believe that a tank can trump an election. Poland is a good example. Russian tanks didn't do it before and won't now.
THmm that > was quote from pawprint2 post not mine (forgot there is different quote system)...
Euro is a failure even without Russia doing anything as its whole design if flawed (one currency multiple debt issuing countries with different quality debt/economy) but problem is elites in order to keep their position want war and i'm afraid they will do anything and everything we allow them to, to get us there.
Euro is a failure even without Russia doing anything as its whole design if flawed (one currency multiple debt issuing countries with different quality debt/economy) but problem is elites in order to keep their position want war and i'm afraid they will do anything and everything we allow them to, to get us there.
Phil, that was a very thought provoking post and economic analysis. Unfortunately, economics is only one facet of a strategic analysis. Though you may be completely correct in a static economic environment, it would appear that the Russians may be willing to gamble that the EU is not prepared to weather the short term to achieve long term gains. With winter closing in, can the EU contries convince their citizens that a cold house is worth standing up to Russian adventures in FSU states? Will they be able to maintain the solidarity long enough to truly make the economic impact felt in Russia to a meaningful level? Putin appears to believe that his country can withstand international pressures from the west long enough to achieve his strategic goals. He appears to be betting that returning Russia to her former glory is a stronger populous message for his citizens than saving easter Europe is to EU citizens. In my opinion, he is right. I'm not cheering for him, but think he has out-maneuvered a lazy West.
Saving Eastern Europe??? WTF? Check out few videos from Crimea there are no mass murders, mass graves and people being herded into gas chambers, people live there quite happily now and what is happening in Ukraine is RUSSIAN population rebelling against NAZI forces who wish to change their country from multinational to single national (without exact definition of one nation as they have problems pinning that down - for now true Ukie is Bandera follower and if possible descendant of German collaborators from WWII). Baltic states are shitting their pants because they after '91 did something very similar to Russian minority there and Poland well lets just say 60 years of history or less won't change 500+ years.
Not to mention that there is strong sentiment in Western Europe which is gaining support against current EU policies and to stop federalization (to put it mildly) and with economic destruction in the next months that sure will also happen (the only question remains how bloody will it become).
Not to mention that there is strong sentiment in Western Europe which is gaining support against current EU policies and to stop federalization (to put it mildly) and with economic destruction in the next months that sure will also happen (the only question remains how bloody will it become).
I meant saving eastern Europe from a geo-political and sphere of influence perspective. If there were mass murders, etc the equation would be different. And that also furthers my point; a fractured west would be hard pressed to carry on with economic sanctions should Putin turn off the gas/oil taps. Not with the ambiguous goal of keeping Ukraine in it's pre-revolt (or Russian intervention, depending on your perspective) state.
Phil, I read your post, and it is well presented, however; you do make one point that has two edges, the idea that tanks can trump elections. If Putin has an outlet for his gas, and doesn't cut off Europe completely, but rather incrementally reduces supply, let's say, 20%, there should follow a substantial increase in the cost (supply and demand). Remember, the EU has elected officials too. As I have been able to read the situation, the majority of the voters in the EU states-not just the former Soviet states, are not supportive of a confrontation with Russia. This may upset their own little socialistic states, as there is only so much money to go around.
When one compares the expenditure of money on defense, between Russia and the US, they will almost always get a skewed result. The reason, our military industrial complex, while producing some of the best military equipment in the world, does so at a very high cost. The profits to our military suppliers is astronomical. Do I believe our equipment and capability is better? Hell yes. Is our Armor twice as good as theirs? I'd say yes indeed. Is it 10 times better? NO, same with fighter A/C etc. Numbers do really count for something, just ask Nazi Germany-their equipment was far superior to the Soviets (in most cases) but numbers (along with the weather) ate the Nazi's lunch. Rather than compare dollars spent, I hope our professional War Fighter Planning Staff, is actually comparing capabilities, regardless of how much or how little was spent. There are other "bad guys" in the world, Iran comes to mind, along with other oil rich nations. What would they pay for nuclear technology? Fleet of ultra modern Fighter Bombers, Modern Russian Radar and Surface to Air capability? North Korea would love to push the envelope some more, and as it goes. I would not count out the Russian war machine, or their desire to return to the world stage as a super power, nor would I count on the EU to demonstrate a set of balls, with a couple exceptions (UK for one) they "just don't feel like it". Technology transfer/outright sales to Commie China (sitting there with 100 of Billions of American dollars) wouldn't be out of the question. I don't see Russia going down without a 'fight', they never have in the past.
When one compares the expenditure of money on defense, between Russia and the US, they will almost always get a skewed result. The reason, our military industrial complex, while producing some of the best military equipment in the world, does so at a very high cost. The profits to our military suppliers is astronomical. Do I believe our equipment and capability is better? Hell yes. Is our Armor twice as good as theirs? I'd say yes indeed. Is it 10 times better? NO, same with fighter A/C etc. Numbers do really count for something, just ask Nazi Germany-their equipment was far superior to the Soviets (in most cases) but numbers (along with the weather) ate the Nazi's lunch. Rather than compare dollars spent, I hope our professional War Fighter Planning Staff, is actually comparing capabilities, regardless of how much or how little was spent. There are other "bad guys" in the world, Iran comes to mind, along with other oil rich nations. What would they pay for nuclear technology? Fleet of ultra modern Fighter Bombers, Modern Russian Radar and Surface to Air capability? North Korea would love to push the envelope some more, and as it goes. I would not count out the Russian war machine, or their desire to return to the world stage as a super power, nor would I count on the EU to demonstrate a set of balls, with a couple exceptions (UK for one) they "just don't feel like it". Technology transfer/outright sales to Commie China (sitting there with 100 of Billions of American dollars) wouldn't be out of the question. I don't see Russia going down without a 'fight', they never have in the past.
Paw is correct regarding Europe people here are spoiled beyond belief much like your NY or some city similar with rural areas being inhabited by older people and/or big farms (especially West) who are relying heavily on energy and modern infrastructure. I would guess that you guys are several steps above Europe in terms of self sufficiency awareness and that not just old farts using their fathers experiences are aware of the situation. I live in what you would call very suburban almost rural area with plenty old farmers (farms spanning generations) and yet i see modern heating devices, modern methods of farming almost noone (i know one old lady who does keep old natural seeds and she will be the most sought person if SHTF) cycles seeds but uses hybrids delivered to the market from abroad (only genI produces crops with gen2 or gen3 being waste of time and effort). Raw milk tainted by antibiotics and food additives or crappy imported food due to cutting costs, a friend of mine saw first hand a cow eating a Wiener Schnitzel at some scumbags farm around here so you can imagine how these kind of practices would fare in difficult conditions and if food imports stop (our country thanks to the EU came from being almost self sufficient to importing more than 60% of all food - sugar is imported at 100% as our sugar producing company got shut down via EU - they've paid us to stop making sugar and bastards took the money and lined their own pockets). This is worse than socialism because central planning is not actually trying to manage EU (in socialism everything is centrally planned and is assumed that central planners try to make good for their country regardless of final outcome which is inevitable now imagine socialism in which central planners are planning to destroy certain parts of their country) but create as much mindless drones and serfs as they can and keep entire nations hostage to bureaucracy of Brussels.
And those bitches would like to tangle with Russia... Simply won't work because in a few months bar years most of the population would welcome Ivan and some heavy duty housecleaning some (in the West) already do. Just watch Farage and LePen gaining support and all the moaning that will cause from elites (if they survive and are not eliminated).
And those bitches would like to tangle with Russia... Simply won't work because in a few months bar years most of the population would welcome Ivan and some heavy duty housecleaning some (in the West) already do. Just watch Farage and LePen gaining support and all the moaning that will cause from elites (if they survive and are not eliminated).
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