Stock Market

[E. Bryant]

Meanwhile, in other LOLZ news:

Layoffs Reportedly Hit Amazon's Robotics Team As Big Tech Continues To Struggle - SlashGear

This month has proven difficult for staff at Twitter and Meta, and now it looks like Amazon may be joining their ranks as another big company hit by layoffs.

www.slashgear.com

Alexa loses $5 billion/year?!? Holy crap, that's almost comical. Back-of-the-envelope math says that even after backing out some nominal amount for back-end server and hosting, you're looking at 2,500-4,000 full-time engineering salaries getting burned on this crap.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Only in 2022 could the stock market be spinning a 7.7% number as "good". That's still showing that inflation is ripping, just not quite as badly as last month. It's also still 5.7% higher than the Fed's target, which has not yet been revised upward (at least not publicly).

But man, not a great day for anyone caught in a short position

Perception versus Reality​

Reported Inflation, Perception versus Reality

Perception From 1970 to 2020 personal Income, stocks, home prices, precious metals, GDP, Federal revenue per capita and per employed person all outperformed reported inflation. 1970-2020 average annual reported inflation 4.03% Average annual growth in personal income 5.51%Average increase in...

www.barchart.com

 

[lariat]

Meanwhile, in other LOLZ news:

Layoffs Reportedly Hit Amazon's Robotics Team As Big Tech Continues To Struggle - SlashGear

This month has proven difficult for staff at Twitter and Meta, and now it looks like Amazon may be joining their ranks as another big company hit by layoffs.

www.slashgear.com

Alexa loses $5 billion/year?!? Holy crap, that's almost comical. Back-of-the-envelope math says that even after backing out some nominal amount for back-end server and hosting, you're looking at 2,500-4,000 full-time engineering salaries getting burned on this crap.

I expect the fallout to continue in tech companies. Probably not to the degree of the dotcom bust but the beginnings of restructuring have arrived. I also expect that quite a few drone companies who have been living off of angels and other PE avenues will die off.

 

[atepointer]

I expect the fallout to continue in tech companies. Probably not to the degree of the dotcom bust but the beginnings of restructuring have arrived. I also expect that quite a few drone companies who have been living off of angels and other PE avenues will die off.

Interesting you bring up PE as that is still 12 years running my best asset class returning 13.6%
this year0. Although they don't deal with tech it's lower to middle market small businesses. BDC's which I prefer due to their liquidity are absolutely killing it right now out of the 4 I own all have had at least 1 div increase this year.

I'll be keeping an eye on the tech focused private equity firms to see how much they are going to get hurt by the headwinds pushing back on tech.

sorry typos i suck this morning

 

[E. Bryant]

Interesting you bring up PE as that is still 12 years running my best asset class returning 13.6%
this year0. Although they don't deal with tech it's lower to middle market small businesses. BDC's which I prefer due to their liquidity are absolutely killing it right now out of the 4 I own all have had at least 1 div increase this year.

I'll be keeping an eye on the tech focused private equity firms to see how much they are going to get hurt by the headwinds pushing back on tech.

sorry typos i suck this morning

My working theory - small to midsize businesses in established markets don't have the room to make dumb decisions even when presented with large sums of money at low interest rates, and a lot of those businesses never got to tap into the free-money keg anyways. So they don't get into too much debt, and they don't hire too many people, and they manage inventory intelligently (not too much, not too little), and basically behave like no one is going to throw them a lifeline.

But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Lightning8]

Meanwhile, in other LOLZ news:

Layoffs Reportedly Hit Amazon's Robotics Team As Big Tech Continues To Struggle - SlashGear

This month has proven difficult for staff at Twitter and Meta, and now it looks like Amazon may be joining their ranks as another big company hit by layoffs.

www.slashgear.com

Alexa loses $5 billion/year?!? Holy crap, that's almost comical. Back-of-the-envelope math says that even after backing out some nominal amount for back-end server and hosting, you're looking at 2,500-4,000 full-time engineering salaries getting burned on this crap.

Laying off the robotics team may be a decision of "what is our core business" and "who is more advantaged". Is Amazon a robotics engineering company or is Amazon a logistics organization that uses a lot of robots. May be better to let a 3rd party focus on designing/building robots while Amazon focuses on selling stuff.

 

[NoDopes]

Amazon is a cloud computing service company. AWS is by a long shot thier money making entity. Thier ML group is massive and making money. Robotics is probably a subset of that group. Although much smaller market.

 

[atepointer]

My working theory - small to midsize businesses in established markets don't have the room to make dumb decisions even when presented with large sums of money at low interest rates, and a lot of those businesses never got to tap into the free-money keg anyways. So they don't get into too much debt, and they don't hire too many people, and they manage inventory intelligently (not too much, not too little), and basically behave like no one is going to throw them a lifeline.

But maybe I'm wrong.

I don't think that's wrong at all and it's partly why I diversify b/t PE and business development companies. PE hand picks people to help these businesses where they lack in skill sets and they are ultra selective and that's why they have excelled over the long haul. Not all PE is the same just like any sector there are wise managers and there are poor ones.

BDC's do the same with rainmaker teams, but more liquid and I take on a bit more risk for yield. And of course with these assets they borrow at fixed and loan at floating rates so they are performing spectacularly right now. Their portfolios are doing well and guidance while not as ballistic as it's been the last couple is still really good for next year. Coverage for dividends on my BDC's is 150-220% as of Q3.

As much as I like PE I'm slowly exiting and will be out of them by next year sometime. Going to let BDC's carry that weight moving forward and keep increasing fixed income allocation from there on.

 

[Graywolf.260]

There goes FTX

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Perception versus Reality​

Consumer sentiment hits lowest level since July as fear of recession looms

Consumer sentiment soured in November, hitting its lowest level since July as Americans contended with continued inflation and a worsening economic outlook.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[atepointer]

Perception versus Reality​

Consumer sentiment hits lowest level since July as fear of recession looms

Consumer sentiment soured in November, hitting its lowest level since July as Americans contended with continued inflation and a worsening economic outlook.

www.marketwatch.com

Will be quite a show to watch. Doomers predicting S&P 2,500 b/f year end, historians saying split government/post-midterm 4,300 EOY. Either way I'm floating trot lines to buy filet mignon at hamburger prices again when they present.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Have some more Koolaid...
Make out your Wish List for the Santa Rally in the market.

U.S. stocks could rally another 25% now that Fed no longer has 'back against the wall' in inflation fight

One of Wall Street's most implacable bulls has laid out his argument for why he thinks U.S. stocks can continue to rally into year's end after Thursday's...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[S3th]

https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Global-LCA-passenger-cars-jul2021_0.pdf

 

[S3th]

Model 3 Scores 5-Star Green NCAP Rating​

The Tesla TeamNovember 14, 2022
Model 3 has been awarded 5-stars with a Weighted Overall Index of 9.8/10 by Green NCAP, an independent initiative helping consumers evaluate vehicle sustainability. In its analysis, Green NCAP considers a vehicle’s energy efficiency, as well as its emission of greenhouse gasses and air pollutants.
Consuming Less to Spend Less
EVs are more efficient than equivalent ICE vehicles, enabling drivers to travel farther using the same quantity of energy.
In Green NCAP’s efficiency test, Model 3 scored a near-perfect 9.6/10, performing well in both warm and cold laboratory tests as well as highway tests. In the highway test, Model 3 received the highest score of all vehicles tested to date. By comparison, the average ICE vehicle tested in 2022 received 4.2/10, and the average hybrid vehicle scored 5.1/10.
Tesla’s process of continuous iteration introduces running changes to vehicles to improve thermal comfort, driving dynamics, efficiency, range and more. This ensures that new customers receive the latest and greatest hardware and get the most range out of every dollar (or euro) spent on energy.
In fact, 1 kWh of energy allows you to drive 7 kilometers in Model 3, compared to only 2 kilometers in an equivalent ICE vehicle1. This efficiency leads to customer savings. Tesla’s online Calculator for European customers shows that a German Tesla owner spends as little as 0.08 € per kilometer on a Model 3 versus 0.12 € for an equivalent ICE vehicle—that’s 35% savings per kilometer2.
No Air Pollutant Emissions
ICE vehicles emit a variety of polluting gases and particles in addition to carbon dioxide, causing significant harm to people and the planet. In Europe alone, almost 800,000 people die prematurely every year from preventable air pollution-related illnesses3. Model 3, and all Tesla vehicles, emits zero exhaust gas pollutants as part of Tesla’s mission to accelerate the adoption of sustainable transport and energy.
Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions
As an electric car, Model 3 does not directly release greenhouse gases. Thanks to its low energy consumption and relatively clean EU electricity production, Model 3 scores a near-perfect 9.8/10 in Green NCAP’s greenhouse gas evaluations.
Our 2021 Impact Report analyzes lifecycle emissions of Tesla vehicles versus equivalent ICE vehicles in the U.S., Europe and China. Its findings show that driving Model 3 produces less greenhouse gases than burning gasoline in all three regions, even with manufacturing factored in.
Tesla vehicles are designed to be more than just a great electric vehicle, but the best vehicles, period. Their efficiency are simply a positive by-product of making the absolute best and most fun products possible.
1 Based on WLTP consumption. Actual range may vary based on factors such as speed, weather conditions and elevation change.
2As of September 2022. For more information regarding these potential savings, including how this is being calculated, please visit Tesla’s Calculator. For US data, please visit this website.
3 https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2021-tesla-impact-report.pdf

 

[E. Bryant]

Holy shit I'm dying over here

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 7999547

Ahhhh... "What the Survey says"..... The survey is so removed from the man on the street it has become of no value in foretasting the future.

One of the talking heads this morning:

What are analysts saying​

Tuesday’s PPI data is “another downside surprise that reinforces the peak inflation narrative and offers evidence that the Fed’s efforts to combat inflation are increasingly effective,” said Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets.

10- and 30-year Treasury yields reach one-month lows after producer-price data comes in below expectations

U.S. bond yields slip after October's producer-price report points to softening inflation and fresh geopolitical risks flare overseas.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[E. Bryant]

View attachment 7999547

Correspondingly, the 10yr yield has dropped from 4.2% to 3.8% over the past week, and the NASDAQ jumped by nearly 12%. I don't know if that makes sense.

 

[lariat]

MSN

I'm shocked...not. Dotcom bubble anyone?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As we move into the uncharted waters of 2023... Some wise words to consider:

20 Warren Buffett Quotes To Build Wealth | Sarwa

The top 20 Warren Buffett quotes to inspire your long-term investment goals include lessons on rationality, market research and patience.

www.sarwa.co

 

[Lightning8]

Mid terms over. Suddenly ok for tech companies to layoff tens of thousands of workers and the recession word is now ok to use

 

[S3th]

Liquidity crunch incoming 2023 & 2024? As you all look at companies you are investing in, I would take a serious look at interest coverage and their debt maturity profile.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

O’Reilly Automotive raises share buyback program by $1.5 billion

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.'s board of directors has increased its share-repurchase program by $1.5 billion.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Liquidity crunch incoming 2023 & 2024? As you all look at companies you are investing in, I would take a serious look at interest coverage and their debt maturity profile.

Name a few sectors that will fare the best....

 

[S3th]

Name a few sectors that will fare the best....

Buy HY Bonds that just closed
end of 2023 buy bonds trading below 60 PAR

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Buy HY Bonds that just closed
end of 2023 buy bonds trading below 60 PAR

Your conservative side is showing.... Think it's going to get that bad ?

 

[S3th]

Your conservative side is showing.... Think it's going to get that bad ?

It truly depends. Current HY bonds (worth looking at) coming hot off the press are >8.25%. That's a solid return, and you should be in the money for a long time unless they go bankrupt or rates exceed current expecations

Now if we see a liquidity crunch in 2023, you could see HY bonds for BB+ going for north of 10%.

When you see a fed pivot, those HY bonds will provide nice appreciation.

As always, I don't believe one can go wrong for being 75/25 on Tesla and Enphase, haha. I kinda wish I was

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It truly depends. Current HY bonds (worth looking at) coming hot off the press are >8.25%. That's a solid return, and you should be in the money for a long time unless they go bankrupt or rates exceed current expecations

Now if we see a liquidity crunch in 2023, you could see HY bonds for BB+ going for north of 10%.

When you see a fed pivot, those HY bonds will provide nice appreciation.

As always, I don't believe one can go wrong for being 75/25 on Tesla and Enphase, haha. I kinda wish I was

My "trader mentality" is the little demon that sits on my right shoulder...
It says... But, tying up funds for a whole year just to make 10%.... Catch a good "bump up" and 10% can be made in two days... or ... Catch a falling knife (going short) for a few days and make that 10% and roll that money over into a savings account at the local S&L...
No one knows what the future is going to bring.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Seeing more downside to this market and little upside.
Shorting anything "consumer related" will be a good plan.

Take a look at Target, down 16% this morning. Look closely at the run up in share price from last week's "Hope inflation has ended" propaganda. This morning reality set in and down it went. A lot of funds lost a lot of money buying the propaganda.

Target warns of soft holiday quarter as profit tumbles and sales slow

Target saw sales decline as families contended with higher prices, a potential warning sign for the holiday shopping season.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla's Ex-AI Lead, Andrej, on why Tesla is focusing on vision-only.

U.K. to get rid of an electric vehicle tax break

The U.K., the world's number-four market for electric vehicles last year, will get rid of a tax break for the cleaner cars, as part of its belt-tightening...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[S3th]

TSLA currently ranks #1 in the entire Nasdaq-100 in terms of forward revenue growth (FY '23 vs FY '22) of +39% while trading significantly cheaper on fwd P/E than other companies growing at a similar pace at only 35x.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

TSLA currently ranks #1 in the entire Nasdaq-100 in terms of forward revenue growth (FY '23 vs FY '22) of +39% while trading significantly cheaper on fwd P/E than other companies growing at a similar pace at only 35x.
View attachment 8001054

........... forward revenue growth...... ?
Did you factor in the 10% inflation rate ?
MU, CRWD, DDOG, ZS.... Quite a dog pack you have TSLA in with.
Here is how the dogs look on a 12 month chart.... Not anything I'd invest in.

 

[S3th]

........... forward revenue growth...... ?
Did you factor in the 10% inflation rate ?
MU, CRWD, DDOG, ZS.... Quite a dog pack you have TSLA in with.
Here is how the dogs look on a 12 month chart.... Not anything I'd invest in.
View attachment 8001082

If Tesla was up 80% on the year, and at an ATH. You still wouldn’t invest though, right?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If Tesla was up 80% on the year, and at an ATH. You still wouldn’t invest though, right?

I would bottom feed on TSLA as if it were my last meal.... It's on my "Watch List" to buy... But so are a few other things.
Elon has things stirred up right now, along with Jerome Powell....
If it were Up 80% and an ATH, I would be like 'The Sharks"... I'm out.
The trend is scary. If it bottomed tomorrow it would take it 11 months to get back to 400....

Edit: I certainly would not be a buyer of CEG right now.

 

[S3th]

The Fed's balance sheet is at a 52-week low for the first time since Dec 2019, down $340 billion from its peak in April and $133 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020.

 

[E. Bryant]

TSLA currently ranks #1 in the entire Nasdaq-100 in terms of forward revenue growth (FY '23 vs FY '22) of +39% while trading significantly cheaper on fwd P/E than other companies growing at a similar pace at only 35x.
View attachment 8001054

What that chart shows is how much trust the market has in the ability of various companies to accurately project future earnings.

 

[E. Bryant]

The Fed's balance sheet is at a 52-week low for the first time since Dec 2019, down $340 billion from its peak in April and $133 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020.

So the Fed has wound down about 4% of its assets. The S&P is still down almost 20%, even after the latest sucker rally. Not really clear why people think this will end with a "soft landing".

 

[pmclaine]

So who made a killing on Grindr?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

So who made a killing on Grindr?

Perhaps Cathie Wood....

Opened at $16.90........... 2,716,758 shares +213.84%

Grindr shares soar in post-SPAC debut as advocates weigh progress of LGBTQ inclusion within finance world

The dating app made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, with shares trading under the ticker GRND.

www.cnbc.com

 

[pmclaine]

Perhaps Cathie Wood....

Opened at $16.90........... 2,716,758 shares +213.84%

Grindr shares soar in post-SPAC debut as advocates weigh progress of LGBTQ inclusion within finance world

The dating app made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, with shares trading under the ticker GRND.

www.cnbc.com

@Bigfatcock

How does the worlds greatest heterosexual confront this dilemma of not being gay but investing in being gay.

A true capitalist supports the butt sex to make money but at the same time becomes no better than SBF in the amoral decision process.

This IPO needs to become a college business ethics case study.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

@Bigfatcock

How does the worlds greatest heterosexual confront this dilemma of not being gay but investing in being gay.

A true capitalist supports the butt sex to make money but at the same time becomes no better than SBF in the amoral decision process.

This IPO needs to become a college business ethics case study.

America will pay the price for it's actions.
Corinthians 5:11

​

 

[Bigfatcock]

@Bigfatcock

How does the worlds greatest heterosexual confront this dilemma of not being gay but investing in being gay.

A true capitalist supports the butt sex to make money but at the same time becomes no better than SBF in the amoral decision process.

This IPO needs to become a college business ethics case study.

I’m not gay, but $20 is $20.

 

[NoDopes]

Better dump those MBS before they start defaulting.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8002382
Better dump those MBS before they start defaulting.

Deja Vu

Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC): What It Was and How It Worked

The Resolution Trust Corporation was a temporary federal agency created to resolve the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s.

www.investopedia.com

 

[atepointer]

View attachment 8002382
Better dump those MBS before they start defaulting.

If you are convinced the Federal Government would let agency MBS fail you can certainly short AGNC and NLY.

 

[E. Bryant]

View attachment 8002382
Better dump those MBS before they start defaulting.

Holy shit, that's an stupidly large distortion of capital. We deserve what we're going to get.

 

[E. Bryant]

If you are convinced the Federal Government is going to let agency MBS fail you can short AGNC and NLY.

I really don't care whether they fail or not - I'm simply disgusted that's what we decided to prop up with $3 trillion.

 

[atepointer]

I really don't care whether they fail or not - I'm simply disgusted that's what we decided to prop up with $3 trillion.

I hear ya been totally disgusted the entire decade plus of ZIRP/QE. I spent the first couple of years just being pissed at them doing little sitting mostly in cash equivalents. Then figured if I'm going to get proxy screwed no matter what during their grand experiment may as well try and profit from it as much as I can b/f the global debt instrument bonfire ensues.

 

[S3th]

 

[Hobo Hilton]

View attachment 8003320

So, BMO is Canadian..
Cathie Wood is playing with a lot of American's money... Doubt many Americans know about her style and investments.
With the world going crazy, I would not bet against ARK....