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Stock Market

Graywolf.260 said:
As

This is a huge natural experiment, it could go extremely different ways. But short term at least I am betting that Chinese stocks retrace their recent gains.
Click to expand...

Yep, but I don't think China has any other choice at this point. They have an aging population and no pre-existing natural immunity so there will be some rough days ahead. Fast-forward a few months and they'll be in much better shape.

I'm moderately concerned about some shortages in the near-term as factories close and China hoards certain commodities (especially pharmaceuticals).

Longer term, I'm a bit worried that China puts this mess behind them and is invigorated enough to engage in another round of aggression against its neighbors.
 
Sneak peak of 2023 demand once federal EV Incentives kick in?
32D920D7-9552-41B5-BBD2-B55534940428.jpeg
86A44A29-F71F-4D80-8488-089C1B39AA71.jpeg
 
S3th said:
What do you mean? I’m accumulating more shares than ever right now. This isn’t some sort of short term investment for me. That’s my bonds and Treasury I bonds. I couldn’t be more happy with the stock falling on noise and not fundamentals.
Click to expand...
Screenshot from 2022-12-27 13-01-22.png


Hopefully... just feels painful at the moment.
 
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I have to wonder whether the Tesla Shanghai shutdown is related to covid. I'm still amazed at the way Xi mishandled this, they stupidly tried to impose a zero covid policy with much more infectious virus variants, which was impossible. Then they just do a 180, give up and let it rip through an unvaccinated population. This is going to get crazy, mark my words.
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Pre-covid was long, long ago in a land far, far away........ We will never walk that path again... Look to the future, not the past.... It will be the only path to survival.
Click to expand...
It is why I am getting closer and closer to being all-in on Tesla. I have sold many holdings recently including all of my Amazon.
 
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Going to dive into the market, got a grub-steak sized bonus from my bosses this year.
Cash and physical precious metals (gold, silver, and lead) are at satisfactory levels.
Fuck it, it's only money!
 
S3th said:
Click to expand...

I guess those 8 year olds in the Congo are busting ass right now.
Still the question that Media ignores is, how much of each (actual supply), would it take for everyone to drive an EV...... crickets.? No, crickets are for eating...
Oh, that's right, because with population reduction, and only a few that will be able to afford one, it's going as planned.
 
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duke308 said:
Going to dive into the market, got a grub-steak sized bonus from my bosses this year.
Cash and physical precious metals (gold, silver, and lead) are at satisfactory levels.
Fuck it, it's only money!
Click to expand...
".......... a grub-steak sized bonus............ " could take on many meanings.
As Bigfatcock said, Real-estate could be a good place to park funds for now. Depends on how patient you are willing to be. But, it would take a $200k down payment to get a decent property that reliable renters would want to live in and have a somewhat positive cash flow from incoming rent.
House "Flipping" is tough right now for the, so called, flippers. An individual could rehab a descent property and put their own renters in it. Again, somewhere in the neighborhood of $300k to buy and rehab one right now.

If your grub-steak is smaller than these numbers, you might want to park it in a REIT for a year.

2013 will be a year where a lot of people lose a lot of money. Just something to ponder.
1672254559601.png
 
Hobo Hilton said:
".......... a grub-steak sized bonus............ " could take on many meanings.
As Bigfatcock said, Real-estate could be a good place to park funds for now. Depends on how patient you are willing to be. But, it would take a $200k down payment to get a decent property that reliable renters would want to live in and have a somewhat positive cash flow from incoming rent.
House "Flipping" is tough right now for the, so called, flippers. An individual could rehab a descent property and put their own renters in it. Again, somewhere in the neighborhood of $300k to buy and rehab one right now.

If your grub-steak is smaller than these numbers, you might want to park it in a REIT for a year.

2013 will be a year where a lot of people lose a lot of money. Just something to ponder.
View attachment 8032259
Click to expand...
I knew you always lived 10 years into the past.
 
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Where to park a bonus:

1. Pay off debt
2. Roth based investments until maxed
3. Coke and whores

In that order.

I never can seem to have enough left for #3, but I’ve heard good things.
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
".......... a grub-steak sized bonus............ " could take on many meanings.
As Bigfatcock said, Real-estate could be a good place to park funds for now. Depends on how patient you are willing to be. But, it would take a $200k down payment to get a decent property that reliable renters would want to live in and have a somewhat positive cash flow from incoming rent.
House "Flipping" is tough right now for the, so called, flippers. An individual could rehab a descent property and put their own renters in it. Again, somewhere in the neighborhood of $300k to buy and rehab one right now.

If your grub-steak is smaller than these numbers, you might want to park it in a REIT for a year.

2013 will be a year where a lot of people lose a lot of money. Just something to ponder.
View attachment 8032259
Click to expand...
$200k for a down payment? $300k starter?

No way. There are houses in nice neighborhoods with good schools for less than $200k all over the country. The great thing about rentals is you don’t have to update them often to keep up with the Jones, but you can update the rent yearly, lol.

Flipping houses is dumb. I’d rather have that lifelong revenue coming in as well as the property value growth over time.

Last year when interest rates were below 4% I told people to buy a house for whatever price they could stomach. Doubt any listened. Well, prices are still high and it’s now double the interest rate.

A 30%-50% value drop today won’t even touch 2019 prices in most places. Think on that.
 
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Bigfatcock said:
$200k for a down payment? $300k starter?

No way. There are houses in nice neighborhoods with good schools for less than $200k all over the country. The great thing about rentals is you don’t have to update them often to keep up with the Jones, but you can update the rent yearly, lol.

Flipping houses is dumb. I’d rather have that lifelong revenue coming in as well as the property value growth over time.

Last year when interest rates were below 4% I told people to buy a house for whatever price they could stomach. Doubt any listened. Well, prices are still high and it’s now double the interest rate.

A 30%-50% value drop today won’t even touch 2019 prices in most places. Think on that.
Click to expand...
I follow exactly where you are coming from.... No argument there. Note the article below. There is a cute little show on TV called "Home Town" based in Laurel, Mississippi. Been watching them rehab some under $200k houses. Average salary in that area is about $40k / year. Rent is probably cheap there. I would not want to be a slum Lord in Laurel....
An American family of 4 with two working parents bring in $200k / year is going to rent in an up scale neighborhood with good schools, security and close access to good paying jobs.... Those are the $400k houses.
Rent out a $200k house and watch who you get as tenants...

Curious...... What is the average rent on your houses ?

_________________________________________
The average house price has been rising rapidly nationwide. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median home sales price is $428,700. That's an increase of $58,900 from just a year ago.
www.fool.com

Average House Price by State in 2022 | The Ascent by Motley Fool

What's the average house price in the U.S.? How about the typical single-family home value in your state? We did the research to find out.
www.fool.com www.fool.com
 
Bigfatcock said:
$200k for a down payment? $300k starter?

No way. There are houses in nice neighborhoods with good schools for less than $200k all over the country. The great thing about rentals is you don’t have to update them often to keep up with the Jones, but you can update the rent yearly, lol.

Flipping houses is dumb. I’d rather have that lifelong revenue coming in as well as the property value growth over time.

Last year when interest rates were below 4% I told people to buy a house for whatever price they could stomach. Doubt any listened. Well, prices are still high and it’s now double the interest rate.

A 30%-50% value drop today won’t even touch 2019 prices in most places. Think on that.
Click to expand...
247wallst.com

This Is the Average Cost of a Home in Montana – 24/7 Wall St.

A surge in demand for homes in the United States, in addition to limited housing inventory, has created a sellers market unlike anything seen in recent memory. Homes are now selling faster than ever before — and also for more money than ever before. As of August 2021, a typical single-family...
247wallst.com 247wallst.com
 
BridgerMT said:
Key word here is Average.... its almost 3x that here in BozeAngeles
Click to expand...
Just for conversation purposes........ If you were going to buy a single family home in your area and turn it into a rental:
1) What you have to pay for a house?
2) How much would you have to put down in order to get your monthly note to a "reasonable" number ?
3) How much would you have to charge a tenant for monthly rental?

Just ball park numbers...
 
BridgerMT said:
1) Average lets say 2,000 to 2,300 Sqft home on 10k sqft lot in town about 800K but prices are coming down.
2) Guess that would depend on your income ...
3) Rates on rentals homes lets use size in 1st answer anywhere from $2,750 to $4,000 a month.
Apartments 2 bedrooms go for about $2,200 a month.
If you can find one.

Thought you we're from around here 🤷‍♂️ maybe I'm wrong
Click to expand...
Thanks for the info.... I'm in the Bitterroot Valley.... South of Missoula. Been here 7 years.... I liked Whitefish and Kalispell but between the 300k visitors to Glacier and the prices in Whitefish I decided to keep looking. I liked Bozeman but 10 years ago it became "the Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous"... Fly fishing brought me here but finding a run down 6 acre place has kept me busy and little time to fly fish.
Life
 
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S3th said:
Elon announces a new Twitter CEO, what do you think happens to Tesla stock?
Click to expand...

Bounces 5-10%, Gary Black updates his PT to $675 and lists 10 "catalysts" that demonstrate his continued ignorance of the auto industry and a general lack of common sense, and then Q1/Q2 financials prove to be far more powerful influences than any of the bullshit getting spread on FinTwit right now.

I'd be more inclined to believe the forward-guidance narrative if the Tesla bulls had less of the keep-clapping-or-Tinkerbell-dies desperation that stunk up every stock discussion in 2000 and 2008.
 
I'm curious what this group would do with $300k. Say you wanted to invest and would need to cash out in 3 years, what would your plan be? No real estate.
 
3rdfocal said:
I'm curious what this group would do with $300k. Say you wanted to invest and would need to cash out in 3 years, what would your plan be? No real estate.
Click to expand...
Open a foundation or some charitable organization (see clintons, bill gates, and mark zuckerberg).
Opening it in Canada minimizes the risk of US gov getting fingers in pie (see Clintons)
Gates opened his charitable foundation, and he can pass it down to his heirs' tax free.
Cashing out, is a good way for the Gov to take about 35% or more depending on a lot of things (if you make money)
By cashing out, hopefully you mean moving it somewhere, that allows you to write off the earnings, so you don't get hosed on taxes.
Heck that trip to Vegas can be written off as a business expense; meeting new 'clients'.
At this point in the game.....
Defense stocks and mortuaries ;)
 
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3rdfocal said:
I'm curious what this group would do with $300k. Say you wanted to invest and would need to cash out in 3 years, what would your plan be? No real estate.
Click to expand...
Never put all of your eggs in one basket. You did not give any bio on yourself so my thoughts will be random, you "cut to fit".
  • Study, observe, absorb the world around you until June 15, 2023. Patience
  • Divide $300k by 6.... Plan to "invest" $50k in each subcategory
  • Subcategories = Stock Market, Housing (Mortgage on the roof over your head), Junk corporate bonds (USA), Foreign Emerging markets, Bonds (US Govt), Life Insurance, Yourself (Heart, teeth, bone / joints, etc), dependable vehicle, etc.
  • You could become a "Day Trader". I cheated and looked over your history in the buy/ sell arena.
  • Your statement about needing to cash out in 3 years puts a spin on your question. Put it in a CD that rolls over. Take it out in 3 years.
 
Last edited:
babyguppy said:
Open a foundation or some charitable organization (see clintons, bill gates, and mark zuckerberg).
Opening it in Canada minimizes the risk of US gov getting fingers in pie (see Clintons)
Gates opened his charitable foundation, and he can pass it down to his heirs' tax free.
Cashing out, is a good way for the Gov to take about 35% or more depending on a lot of things (if you make money)
By cashing out, hopefully you mean moving it somewhere, that allows you to write off the earnings, so you don't get hosed on taxes.
At this point in the game.....
Defense stocks and mortuaries ;)
Click to expand...
You have a point. How much war is in our immediate future? Will those returns outpace inflation and taxes?
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Never put all of your eggs in one basket. You did not give any bio on yourself so my thoughts will be random, you "cut to fit".
  • Study, observe, absorb the world around you until June 15, 2023. Patience
  • Divide $300k by 6.... Plan to "invest" $50k in each subcategory
  • Subcategories = Stock Market, Housing (Mortgage on the roof over your head), Junk corporate bonds (USA), Foreign Emerging markets, Bonds (US Govt), Life Insurance, Yourself (Heart, teeth, bone / joints, etc), dependable vehicle, etc.
  • You could become a "Day Trader". I cheated and looked over your history in the buy/ sell arena.
  • Your statement about needing to cash out in 3 years puts a spin on your question. Put it in a CD that rolls over. Take it out in 3 years. Mil guy, 3 years from retiring, money saved will buy a house/land in hopes to live mortgage free for(ever).
Click to expand...
Mil guy, 3 years from retirement. Will blow my wad on a house/land when I retire in hopes to live mortgage free for(ever). Curious what specifically YOU would do?
@S3th all in on tesla?
 
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