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S3th said:
That is not a convincing view point; every company can miss future earnings. Majority will have missed earnings and negative YoY growth in 2023.
Click to expand...

Yes, every company can miss earnings, and so that's why most people look at either trailing earnings or some type of discount on forward earnings to account for risk. The arguments in favor of a higher share price for TSLA based upon forward PE don't ever seem to discount for risk; it's simply taken as granted that earning will automatically increase 50-100% next year and the PE will thus drop to a level that's supposedly too low at current valuations (despite still being much higher than any peer). This is speculation, no matter what past performance might suggest.

It's too early to say if this is a bump in the road or a bursting bubble. Given the ratio of whining to buying, Tesla bulls are showing signs that they're scared that the emperor has no clothes.
 
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"Sergio Statistic" :ROFLMAO: I love it. How many investors recognize the reference?
 
Graywolf.260 said:
Watch China now it’s a big experiment. We’ll see what happens with opening and Covid starts ripping through the huge poorly vaccinated population.
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Well, there are 50,000 babies born each day in China. Replacements are plentiful.
Seems when I was in elementary school one lesson taught was that China could march an Army, 100 men wide, off of a cliff every day and never run out of replacements.

No, I did not fact check.
 
S3th said:
The true message

Click to expand...

At the time of the Twitter acq, TSLA had a trailing PE of 60+ and NDX had a PE of about 22. If Gary Black does not understand why those two would have a different response to the Fed target rate, then perhaps people should not take advice from him.
 
E. Bryant said:
At the time of the Twitter acq, TSLA had a trailing PE of 60+ and NDX had a PE of about 22. If Gary Black does not understand why those two would have a different response to the Fed target rate, then perhaps people should not take advice from him.
Click to expand...
As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.
 
S3th said:
As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.
Click to expand...

Why is Gary comparing two entirely different things? NASDAQ has an implied annual rate of return of a touch less than 4% and Tesla was around 1.3%. When discounting for forward risk and comparing to a Fed target rate of 4%, it should be obvious one of those was far more likely to make a big move.

None of this matters since Gary's just throwing dust in the air and pretending this is about "Twitter overhang", because it's an easier lift than it is to make an optimistic argument based upon fundamentals or technical analysis. About 61% of the drop from Tesla's 52wk high came before the Twitter acq, and Tesla started the first leg down from its ATH right around the same time that the NASDAQ and several other stocks rolled over in anticipation of Fed tightening, worsening macro conditions, etc. Tesla has dropped further than many peers, but that's most likely because it was propped up further on hopes and dreams.

In other news, oof:



For those who are not engineers, what you just heard is Elon declaring that Twitter needs to be torn down and then implicitly admitting that he doesn't know why this needs to happen because he can't provide even a high-level understanding of how the code is built beyond calling it a "crazy stack" (which is probably true from the perspective of a guy who doesn't write code). Trust me, this is far more damaging to his reputation than any collections of his comments that have annoyed the Left.
 
Hobo Hilton said:
Well, there are 50,000 babies born each day in China. Replacements are plentiful.
Seems when I was in elementary school one lesson taught was that China could march an Army, 100 men wide, off of a cliff every day and never run out of replacements.

No, I did not fact check.
Click to expand...
Not anymore. China has birth rate issues
 
Lightning8 said:
Not anymore. China has birth rate issues
Click to expand...

Yep - China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, most of western Europe all will experience problems with shrinking populations. Combine this with natural resource shortages and it's not hard to imagine what sort of thing kicks off the next big mix-'em-up.
 
E. Bryant said:


For those who are not engineers, what you just heard is Elon declaring that Twitter needs to be torn down and then implicitly admitting that he doesn't know why this needs to happen because he can't provide even a high-level understanding of how the code is built beyond calling it a "crazy stack" (which is probably true from the perspective of a guy who doesn't write code). Trust me, this is far more damaging to his reputation than any collections of his comments that have annoyed the Left.
Click to expand...



When listening to the longer conversation, it seems like Elon has a pretty great understanding of the stack and server issues. But honestly, what do I know.
 
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Wow Tesla really starting to auger in now down 9.5% today on very large volume of 124m shares
 
Hobo Hilton said:
Figure out when the "Dead Cat Bounce" will happen.... Make 10% - 20% in a few days and then "Get the hell out of Dodge"..... Call it a good year.
Volume like never before.
Click to expand...
No growth names for me I just took note as a couple of members on one of the subscription services I subscribe to who have been short Tesla were gloating and closed out today.
 
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S3th said:
I am a kid in a candy shop catching falling knifes. I believe I have increased my Tesla position this week by probably 30%.
Click to expand...
Is Tesla falling due to fundamentals or the new hate for all things Musk as he exposes the Democrats/MIC/DOD/FBI .....
 
Hobo Hilton said:
Reminder:
You have a wedding to pay for.
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I have the cash set aside but luckily have been cash flowing it. The total wedding should be around $4,000. We are keeping it to 60 people which is going to make many people upset but it is what it is. Her grandma and aunt and my mother will be making all of the food; which they have decided to pay for.
 
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Lightning8 said:
Is Tesla falling due to fundamentals or the new hate for all things Musk as he exposes the Democrats/MIC/DOD/FBI .....
Click to expand...
Fundamentals, no. Fundamentals have never been better.

I believe macro is playing a much larger part than Twitter but Twitter is for sure not helping the situation. DCF and recession fears are weighing on profitability and growth expectations. I don't believe there has been much if any impact on brand value. & at the end of the day, I believe and continue to believe that Tesla is a long-term investment and that the market is a reflection of emotions. I believe Tesla is still at the starting line of its first s-curve.
 
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S3th said:
I have the cash set aside but luckily have been cash flowing it. The total wedding should be around $4,000. We are keeping it to 60 people which is going to make many people upset but it is what it is. Her grandma and aunt and my mother will be making all of the food; which they have decided to pay for.
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Grandma, Aunt and Mom.......... You got to love that Southern hospitality.
Who is boiling the crawfish / shrimp for the rehearsal dinner?.... Or will it be Jambalaya ?
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I totally believe him this time! Elon is a rock and man of his word....probably, definitely and probably all in 2 sentences. Going to put the egg timer on the counter real quick...

  • "I won't sell stock until I don't know probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter," Musk said.

seekingalpha.com

Tesla up 2% afterhours as CEO Elon Musk says he will pause share sales (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Thursday he will not sell any more Tesla stock for about two years. While speaking in a Twitter Spaces audio chat, Musk said he...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
"Bring a Trailer"........ LOL......... That has been my plan of action for the past 55 years.... I have lost count....

www.cnbc.com

Online car market Bring a Trailer closing out year with record $1.35 billion in sales

Online car market Bring a Trailer says a record $1.3 billion of cars were sold on its site this year as collectors took to buying classic and pre-owned cars.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
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I have a 1970 Boss 302 - I watch BaT daily and it is amazing! I suspect that a number of high wealth individual have abandoned the stock market to invest/speculate in the collector car market
 
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Last edited:
S3th said:
As Gary said, if Tesla's performance was a direct result of the federal funds rate which Elon is blaming here, NDX would not be down 1%.
Click to expand...

Gary Black's latest:



Things sure changed in the last 48 hours 🤨

BTW, if selling price drops 10% as he predicts, there is no way that margin drops only 2%.
 
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Graywolf.260 said:
A senior health official in Qingdao China reported half a million new covid cases today. The report was later retracted and the national health agency reported about 4100 cases for the entire country today with no new deaths.

apple.news

Chinese city seeing half a million Covid cases a day – local health chief — Guardian US

The figures reported by Qingdao’s municipal health chief were in stark contrast to official statistics from the central government
apple.news apple.news
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I read elsewhere an estimate that about 250 million have been infected in the last ten days. If true, then this wave of infection burns out by the Chinese New Year, and that removes a large overhang for 2023. Does this improve the supply chain enough that we'll generally see an end to various shortages and thus turn into a deflationary pressure, or will sometime else pop up to replace it, or was the impact of China's zero-Covid policy overstated all along? Only one way to find out.
 
As
E. Bryant said:
I read elsewhere an estimate that about 250 million have been infected in the last ten days. If true, then this wave of infection burns out by the Chinese New Year, and that removes a large overhang for 2023. Does this improve the supply chain enough that we'll generally see an end to various shortages and thus turn into a deflationary pressure, or will sometime else pop up to replace it, or was the impact of China's zero-Covid policy overstated all along? Only one way to find out.
Click to expand...
This is a huge natural experiment, it could go extremely different ways. But short term at least I am betting that Chinese stocks retrace their recent gains.
 
Graywolf.260 said:
As

This is a huge natural experiment, it could go extremely different ways. But short term at least I am betting that Chinese stocks retrace their recent gains.
Click to expand...
This will be interesting to follow: Tesla loyals say nothing to it, bears waiting to see Q4 numbers. Listening to a caller on FoxBiz yesterday something around 250k new wuflu cases last week alone. Got a hunch this is going to throw a hitch in the giddy up of everyone

seekingalpha.com

Tesla halts production in Shanghai as part of year-end break (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla (TSLA) suspended production at its Shanghai plant on Saturday, according to Reuters. Read more details on the Tesla production halt.
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com
 
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