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Tesla is building battery manufacturing plant. Also, if battery availability isn't a limiting factor in car production rates, it's not a valid comparison.

Musk predicted 100 GWh of 4860 cell manufacturing in 2022. At the end of the year, it was running at an annualized rate of about 4 GWh/year in Austin, and had temporarily abandoned cell production in Berlin for an undisclosed period of time. I don't know the current capacity of Panasonic or CATL, but this gap seems significant.

Generally speaking, I would be hesitant to accept claims from any EV manufacturer that cell manufacturing capacity is not a constraint.
 
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What is "cell capacity" ? Is that the same as saying one of those shipping container batteries will fully charge 80 EV's ?
What do the Law's of Physic's say about converting energy from one form to another ?
What is an "acceptable" temperature for an EV battery being charged ? What about a hot charging cable from the wall outlet ?

Cell capacity - the theoretical amount of energy stored in a cell or pack. Commonly stated in kilowatt-hours (kWh); a pack of 100 kWh could provide 100 kW (about 135 HP) for one hour if fully discharged (which is usually not done for reasons related to maximizing usable pack life).

One of those shipping containers could indeed charge about 80 EVs, but more important to the point I was trying to make, each one of those boxes represents 80 EVs that are not built if cells are indeed a constraint. If Tesla can sell a Megpack for $2M at an estimated 20% net margin or $3.5-4M of cars at 25% net margin, what's the wiser choice?
 
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I'm following you.... A thought:

Why don't the EV manufacturer's with "Coast to Coast" charging stations or some sort of agreement with the other charging stations offer an EV vehicle that comes with a "Lifetime Re-Charging" deal. An example = Let's say a certain EV sells for $50k. Run some numbers and offer the same vehicle with a Life Time Charge for $70k............ Doing that would really cut through all the BS and a buyer would know precisely +/- what the cost per mile would be.....

Just a Hobo thought.
 
I'm following you.... A thought:

Why don't the EV manufacturer's with "Coast to Coast" charging stations or some sort of agreement with the other charging stations offer an EV vehicle that comes with a "Lifetime Re-Charging" deal. An example = Let's say a certain EV sells for $50k. Run some numbers and offer the same vehicle with a Life Time Charge for $70k............ Doing that would really cut through all the BS and a buyer would know precisely +/- what the cost per mile would be.....

Just a Hobo thought.
Yeah, I could see that being an option; at least with charging providers offering some type of membership. However, that introduces adverse selection. You could for sure hedge your risk through forward derivatives. Also, I am not sure how large of a segment of the EV market would want such an offering. A large appeal to owning an EV is charging it at your house at a relatively cheap cost.
 
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I'm following you.... A thought:

Why don't the EV manufacturer's with "Coast to Coast" charging stations or some sort of agreement with the other charging stations offer an EV vehicle that comes with a "Lifetime Re-Charging" deal. An example = Let's say a certain EV sells for $50k. Run some numbers and offer the same vehicle with a Life Time Charge for $70k............ Doing that would really cut through all the BS and a buyer would know precisely +/- what the cost per mile would be.....

Just a Hobo thought.

Two things.
First of all, most people who can afford EVs will charge them at home or work which is dramatically cheaper than on the road fast charging.

Tesla used to come with free super charger charging for life of the vehicle or some such.
But economics took over and that deal was ended some time back.

The issue is that most folks probably wouldn't want to pre-pay for some charging package because the upfront cost would be huge

That being said a good number of new EVs these days come with a charge package like 250kw of free charging so you can try it out and such.
 
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Yeah, I could see that being an option; at least with charging providers offering some type of membership.

That's already a thing, here in the USA it's pretty basic but places that are more EV full like Europe you have different companies offering memberships and charging packages and such.
 
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Yeah, I could see that being an option; at least with charging providers offering some type of membership. However, that introduces adverse selection. You could for sure hedge your risk through forward derivatives. Also, I am not sure how large of a segment of the EV market would want such an offering. A large appeal to owning an EV is charging it at your house at a relatively cheap cost.
Yep......... But people are lazy / crazy... or both. Look at the cheap cost to prepare a healthy meal at home compared to going "Fast Food".....
Locate some chargers at Taco Bell, McD's and Pizza Hut.... Cheap and fast, like the food.... LOL
Then "The Homeless" could still drive an EV...

 
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Yep......... But people are lazy / crazy... or both. Look at the cheap cost to prepare a healthy meal at home compared to going "Fast Food".....
Locate some chargers at Taco Bell, McD's and Pizza Hut.... Cheap and fast, like the food.... LOL
Then "The Homeless" could still drive an EV...

Some supermarkets actually made deals with charging companies to place free chargers at the grocery stores that also display ads.
It keeps people shopping and makes them more likely to come back and the ad revenue helps pay for all the installs.
 
Lately, I’ve been putting the 10% of my 401K that goes into what I call my “Zombie Fund” (all commodities, mining, gold, etc.) into closed end trusts that only hold gold and silver. The gold and silver funds here: https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-bullion-trusts/gold-and-silver/

Those two seem to be doing well, but other than not having the physical gold and silver in my hand, what am I missing?

Still have 90% of my 401K (max it out every year) going into traditional market-based funds plus my employer kicks in some in the form of company stock. Also have traditional and Roth IRAs that get funded every year, but not as much as I’d like.

Also make it a point to buy some physical silver or gold every month…sometimes only a few silver dollars, sometimes a few ounces of gold in whatever coin has the best marginal exchange rate; usually Canookian Maple Leaf coins for some reason, even though their gold content is among the highest in the world.

Have some investment property already (sold off all the rentals when I retired from the AF back in ‘15), so not keen to dive back into that pool.

Have invested a lot into alternative precious metals lately too…brass, lead, and copper in particular! 😆
 
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I'm following you.... A thought:

Why don't the EV manufacturer's with "Coast to Coast" charging stations or some sort of agreement with the other charging stations offer an EV vehicle that comes with a "Lifetime Re-Charging" deal. An example = Let's say a certain EV sells for $50k. Run some numbers and offer the same vehicle with a Life Time Charge for $70k............ Doing that would really cut through all the BS and a buyer would know precisely +/- what the cost per mile would be.....

Just a Hobo thought.
Off the cuff... Because they know the ever increasing demand and lagging generation expansion will continue to push energy costs higher.
 
Lately, I’ve been putting the 10% of my 401K that goes into what I call my “Zombie Fund” (all commodities, mining, gold, etc.) into closed end trusts that only hold gold and silver. The gold and silver funds here: https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-bullion-trusts/gold-and-silver/

Those two seem to be doing well, but other than not having the physical gold and silver in my hand, what am I missing?

Still have 90% of my 401K (max it out every year) going into traditional market-based funds plus my employer kicks in some in the form of company stock. Also have traditional and Roth IRAs that get funded every year, but not as much as I’d like.

Also make it a point to buy some physical silver or gold every month…sometimes only a few silver dollars, sometimes a few ounces of gold in whatever coin has the best marginal exchange rate; usually Canookian Maple Leaf coins for some reason, even though their gold content is among the highest in the world.

Have some investment property already (sold off all the rentals when I retired from the AF back in ‘15), so not keen to dive back into that pool.

Have invested a lot into alternative precious metals lately too…brass, lead, and copper in particular! 😆
Your question:
Those two seem to be doing well, but other than not having the physical gold and silver in my hand, what am I missing?

Have you been watching the cryptocurrency / Bit coin/ FTX collapse recently ? Those that lost out "had nothing in their hand".

What you have is paper and a promise.
 
Your question:
Those two seem to be doing well, but other than not having the physical gold and silver in my hand, what am I missing?

Have you been watching the cryptocurrency / Bit coin/ FTX collapse recently ? Those that lost out "had nothing in their hand".

What you have is paper and a promise.
Agreed. No different than holding stock I suppose…
 
Agreed. No different than holding stock I suppose…
2023 is the year to "hold physical"....... Art work, vintage auto's, collectables, American Gold Eagles, tools, weapons, etc. Think outside the box of what you will consume this year. Buy a new set of tires for your car, bag them up and put them in the corner of your garage. Money in the bank. The "wait" for prices to come down could be 18 months long. A lot can happen during that time frame. The worst you could do is end up holding all the physical you hold today. Might not be a bad position.
 
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Do that to a Tesla and you'll have to spend more than you paid for it to get it back to working condition.
Tesla owner a few streets over finally unloaded his S had it for sale for almost a year at least when I was aware of it could have been longer. I believe the ad said it would charge up to maybe 10%. Saw the tow truck picking it up, but I know he had been slashing the price forever. I've read where the batt replacement cost is north of $20k.
 
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Tesla owner a few streets over finally unloaded his S had it for sale for almost a year at least when I was aware of it could have been longer. I believe the ad said it would charge up to maybe 10%. Saw the tow truck picking it up, but I know he had been slashing the price forever. I've read where the batt replacement cost is north of $20k.

At least, 20K for a new battery if it's out of warranty would be a rough guess.
I wonder why he didn't have Tesla replace it while it was still under the original warranty unless it's a really old one.

There have been a lot of changes over time and the batteries in the last couple years do a whole lot better and longer than the ones from the first Model S production years.

There are some 3rd party folks that are starting to do battery packs for Teslas as well.
 
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Elon has said for the last several months in podcast that he is seeing deflation with raw material and supply chain cost. I have to believe this to be true (we can see how much shipping container cost have dropped) and Tesla is repricing to align with margin targets.



 
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2023 is the year to "hold physical"....... Art work, vintage auto's, collectables, American Gold Eagles, tools, weapons, etc. Think outside the box of what you will consume this year. Buy a new set of tires for your car, bag them up and put them in the corner of your garage. Money in the bank. The "wait" for prices to come down could be 18 months long. A lot can happen during that time frame. The worst you could do is end up holding all the physical you hold today. Might not be a bad position.

Right on.

At one point last summer, no one in town had the correct oil filter for my F150; 3 major chains, and all options out of stock. Wound up driving into San Antonio to get one (well, two actually). That was just nuts to me. Literally the most popular vehicle in America (definitely around here), and something as simple as an oil filter was unavailable.

Since then I’ve put washable/reusable air filters (K&N) in all our cars, have 2-3 oil filters, and a set of brake pads for every vehicle, as well as sealed containers of brake fluid stored in my garage. Don’t want to go nuts on motor oil storage, but always have enough on hand to change the oil on all our vehicles.

Good idea on the tires, but be careful and check the date before storing them. They begin to decompose as soon as they’re made…often the ‘new’ tires you see on sale are already 2-3 years old and have just been sitting in a warehouse slowly dry rotting. Anything over 3 years old I think legally can’t be sold as new tires in some jurisdictions.

Re: storing stuff, don’t forget to set aside some freeze dried or properly canned food as well everyone…will leave that for another discussion though.

Now, to go find me some spare 10mm sockets…
 
Right on.

At one point last summer, no one in town had the correct oil filter for my F150; 3 major chains, and all options out of stock. Wound up driving into San Antonio to get one (well, two actually). That was just nuts to me. Literally the most popular vehicle in America (definitely around here), and something as simple as an oil filter was unavailable.

Since then I’ve put washable/reusable air filters (K&N) in all our cars, have 2-3 oil filters, and a set of brake pads for every vehicle, as well as sealed containers of brake fluid stored in my garage. Don’t want to go nuts on motor oil storage, but always have enough on hand to change the oil on all our vehicles.

Good idea on the tires, but be careful and check the date before storing them. They begin to decompose as soon as they’re made…often the ‘new’ tires you see on sale are already 2-3 years old and have just been sitting in a warehouse slowly dry rotting. Anything over 3 years old I think legally can’t be sold as new tires in some jurisdictions.

Re: storing stuff, don’t forget to set aside some freeze dried or properly canned food as well everyone…will leave that for another discussion though.

Now, to go find me some spare 10mm sockets…
“A Little Neglect May Breed Great Mischief”
Root-Cause Thinking Reveals That We Are Only as Strong as Our Weakest Link

“For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.
For want of a horse, the rider was lost.
For want of a rider, the battle was lost.
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost,

And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”

Benjamin Franklin included a version of this proverb, preceded by the words, “A little neglect may breed
great mischief,” in Poor Richard's Almanack in 1758 when the American colonies were at odds with the
English Parliament.
 
Is this a "sign" of the bottom being found... or .... A "Dead Cat Bounce ?
Costco - COST
1673020367406.png

Up 7%
 
Is this a "sign" of the bottom being found... or .... A "Dead Cat Bounce ?
Costco - COST
View attachment 8039873

Up 7%
That sure isn't indicative of activity at my Costco. I have to find low times to go so it doesn't feel like black Friday. I think people are stocking up. About half the people I see look to be at least partially prepping food items and not be stocking a small business.
 
That sure isn't indicative of activity at my Costco. I have to find low times to go so it doesn't feel like black Friday. I think people are stocking up. About half the people I see look to be at least partially prepping food items and not be stocking a small business.
I've been a Costco member for 30+ years.... Been in their stores coast to coast. I not only pay attention to the presentations at the store but I take note of the "Class" of people shopping there. I also get Prescription Meds there... Never saw the "Food Stamp shoppers" there. Don't see anyone resembling the "Shoppers of Walmart" photos. This bounce could be a direct reflection of how / where the Upper Middle Class are procuring their supplies.

However....... As previous recessions wore on, COST lost a portion of it's customer base to Walmart (WMT). The chart is an overlay of WMT and COST. Appears that last October was a turning point for some shoppers. IMHO when that Free Government money is doled out during 2023 it will find itself at WMT and not COST.

1673021604285.png
 
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At least, 20K for a new battery if it's out of warranty would be a rough guess.
I wonder why he didn't have Tesla replace it while it was still under the original warranty unless it's a really old one.

There have been a lot of changes over time and the batteries in the last couple years do a whole lot better and longer than the ones from the first Model S production years.

There are some 3rd party folks that are starting to do battery packs for Teslas as well.
No idea don't know him other than say hello when I walk by. I would assume it was out of warranty give how long it took to unload it. Would be crazy to dump it for what he did if he could have had a new batt done under warranty.
 
My COST membership expired this month. I am not renewing.
I totally understand... I have that thought at renewal time. At this point in time the only thing that keeps me renewing is the Prescription Drug Department. Most old people never research what country their drugs are manufactured. I look at every one. Across the board (but not 100%) Costco supplies meds made in America, Canada and some other top rated countries. I can tell a difference on some of the meds I take. Walgreens, Walmart and some of the Mom and Pop Drug Stores bring in Prescription Meds made in India (Dr. Reedy's Lab,) or prescription meds made in China...

Some will chime in and remind us that drugs are made up of different "compounds" and there is no way for a non-layman to know which of the many countries Prescription Meds come from. When old age and hard livin' catches up to you and there is a Prescription Med that is keeping you alive, you will look a bit closer.

 
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Closed my Southwest options for ~40% gain and sold my leveraged Tesla position $TSLL for 14%. Two good week trades... helps offset some recent losses haha.
 
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Closed my Southwest options for ~40% gain and sold my leveraged Tesla position $TSLL for 14%. Two good week trades... helps offset some recent losses haha.
You are a young man...... Hang in there ......... In the blink of an eye, you will become "Old and Wise".
 
The Hornsdale Power Reserve is the world’s first big battery. It provides essential grid-support services.


The first 100MW/129MWh was completed in November 2017. In its first two years of operation the Hornsdale Power Reserve confirmed the benefits associated with grid-scale batteries in the National Electricity Market and saved South Australian consumers over $150 million.

Following this success, a 50MW/64.5MWh expansion was completed in September 2020. As part of the expansion the full 150MW is being upgraded to include Tesla’s Virtual Machine Mode, enabling the battery to provide inertia support services to the electricity grid.


*from what I have heard, they paid ~$70M USD
 
The Hornsdale Power Reserve is the world’s first big battery. It provides essential grid-support services.


The first 100MW/129MWh was completed in November 2017. In its first two years of operation the Hornsdale Power Reserve confirmed the benefits associated with grid-scale batteries in the National Electricity Market and saved South Australian consumers over $150 million.

Following this success, a 50MW/64.5MWh expansion was completed in September 2020. As part of the expansion the full 150MW is being upgraded to include Tesla’s Virtual Machine Mode, enabling the battery to provide inertia support services to the electricity grid.


*from what I have heard, they paid ~$70M USD
Here is what 600mw looks like...... And the size crew it takes to build it... Gas Fired
1673312240513.jpeg
 
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I totally understand... I have that thought at renewal time. At this point in time the only thing that keeps me renewing is the Prescription Drug Department. Most old people never research what country their drugs are manufactured. I look at every one. Across the board (but not 100%) Costco supplies meds made in America, Canada and some other top rated countries. I can tell a difference on some of the meds I take. Walgreens, Walmart and some of the Mom and Pop Drug Stores bring in Prescription Meds made in India (Dr. Reedy's Lab,) or prescription meds made in China...
I don't think you have to be a member to order prescription drugs there. Unless it has changed, I used it for a while and was not a member.
 
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To read later today
When a company is aggressively buying back it's own stock you can throw P/E out the window.

 
“Even though a majority of institutional clients think we’re probably going to be in a recession, they don’t seem to be afraid of it,” the firm’s CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday. “That’s just a big disconnect.”

 
Fed: No, seriously guys, we're going to keep increasing rates until things cool off.

Investors: <all in on shitco stocks>
 
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Screenshot_20230113-051904.png


I'm being told that this is somehow good for margins. Hellava nice price for consumers after $7500 of my tax dollars get laid on the hood, though.
 

I like the move. I wish we understood the impact on margins better but I know COGS have decreased in recent periods and Tesla’s goal was to reduce prices as cost came down. I would be surprised if the impact is 700bps as suggested in the article. All I know, is if I was more financial lavish, I would go buy a MY today. Too bad I still rather own the stock than the car.

This is going to be put serious pressure on legacy. Not yet the coupe de grace but soon.
 
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