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This is Jimmy Carter 2.0. Let’s just hope we get Reagan 2.0 afterwards.

When Reagan took office, the national debt was less than $1 trillion - about 32.5% of the GDP at that time. I don't know how the debt was structured at that time, but my guess is that it was a healthy mix of short- and long-term notes. This gave Voelker substantial flexibility.

JPow is painted into a corner with the current debt level, and Yellen made the mess worse by failing to roll over short-term notes into longer-dated Tbills when rates were historically low. The federal government probably can't afford to pay the rates demanded by investors, so the Fed will almost certainly need to monetize the debt.

On the political side, I don't see any hope for a Reagan-type to take office.
 
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Li-Cycle earnings must have been worse than expected. I believe their cost overrun was not a 10%-20% but 100%. Either way, CPI data came out bullish for financing products like Enphase.
 
Li-Cycle earnings must have been worse than expected. I believe their cost overrun was not a 10%-20% but 100%. Either way, CPI data came out bullish for financing products like Enphase.
ENPH and SEDG and now just meme stocks... The entire "sustainable" / Go Green sector will fail without government's propping them up.
 
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The Go Green propaganda machine would have American's believe an EV is "sustainable".

Specifically, a study in China estimated that manufacturing a conventional car generates 10.5 tonnes of CO2, while an electric car produces 13 tonnes. Of this, 3.2 tonnes are produced in the manufacture of the battery. In terms of recycling, a fossil-fuelled vehicle produces 1.8 tonnes of CO2, and an electric car produces 2.4 tonnes, of which 0.7 tonnes comes from recycling the batteries.
 
The Go Green propaganda machine would have American's believe an EV is "sustainable".

Specifically, a study in China estimated that manufacturing a conventional car generates 10.5 tonnes of CO2, while an electric car produces 13 tonnes. Of this, 3.2 tonnes are produced in the manufacture of the battery. In terms of recycling, a fossil-fuelled vehicle produces 1.8 tonnes of CO2, and an electric car produces 2.4 tonnes, of which 0.7 tonnes comes from recycling the batteries.

Now add the amount of CO2 produced over the life of the vehicle. Additionally, we all know China is not the harbinger of reducing CO2 emissions. Either way, more or less CO2, I’m here for the superior technology.
 
Now add the amount of CO2 produced over the life of the vehicle. Additionally, we all know China is not the harbinger of reducing CO2 emissions. Either way, more or less CO2, I’m here for the superior technology.
The superior technology will be when the "battery" is eliminated.
If I'm still alive, I might even invest in that technology.

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No carbon foot print.
 
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Li-Cycle earnings must have been worse than expected. I believe their cost overrun was not a 10%-20% but 100%. Either way, CPI data came out bullish for financing products like Enphase.
They are certainly being hammered. Apparently because they are pulling back from their hub plans because of costs, and the price of Li going down, including the Exxon announcement. One downgrade had a price target of zero. The question seems to be what their backers/senior debt holders will do?
 
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They are certainly being hammered. Apparently because they are pulling back from their hub plans because of costs, and the price of Li going down, including the Exxon announcement. One downgrade had a price target of zero. The question seems to be what their backers/senior debt holders will do?

Exxon news is nothing. They have been interested in this space for awhile now. Blackmass pricing is down in the short term but one would have thought they have off take agreements with at least a floor. Either way, yeah. Their significant cost overrun is absurd and severely hurts the chance of a takeover or partnership.

China lithium inventories are extremely low. Once the price starts to u-turn expect a short squeeze in hydroxide and carbonate pricing as everyone tries to secure inventory. At least that is my view on the current situation.
 
Playing the devil's advocate: what if the bottom falls out of the battery market as EV production ramp-up is delayed or cancelled altogether?
 
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Playing the devil's advocate: what if the bottom falls out of the battery market as EV production ramp-up is delayed or cancelled altogether?
That has been my thought all along. Every time someone corners the market with a Widget, along comes "Widget Alternative".
Vinyl Records / 8 track tapes / Cassette Player / CD's / Cloud Streaming
Some form of "energy" will eventually replace the battery.
 
Anything to this concept ?
 
Playing the devil's advocate: what if the bottom falls out of the battery market as EV production ramp-up is delayed or cancelled altogether?

You will see battery supply come offline and reductions or cancellations in CAPEX. Remember, automotive and conversion ramps are relatively quick. Mines take 3-4x the time to come online. At current pricing, junior miners are feeling the pressure. If pricing continues to fall it will only push out the supply demand curve.

My view is this transition is taking place regardless. It’s just a matter of when the s-curve really starts. For me, that is late 2026; if pricing remains low then 2027 and 2028.
 
An interesting list of prices changes in the most recent CPI report:


This one stood out above the rest:

Health insurance: -34%

Now surely everyone is thinking to themselves but my health insurance costs haven't dropped... and they're correct. The BLS simply adjusted the method used to calculate this cost:


And there you go: a -0.17% adjustment to last month's print, or almost twice the miss that sparked yesterday's rally.
 
An interesting list of prices changes in the most recent CPI report:


This one stood out above the rest:

Health insurance: -34%

Now surely everyone is thinking to themselves but my health insurance costs haven't dropped... and they're correct. The BLS simply adjusted the method used to calculate this cost:


And there you go: a -0.17% adjustment to last month's print, or almost twice the miss that sparked yesterday's rally.
I will be open about my finances and when a price drops on any of my consumables for 3 consecutive months, I will list it here.
My vehicles are getting older and less valuable but my insurance is not coming down proportionately with the depreciation of the vehicle.
Medicare is increasing my premium and paying less on my deductibles.
The list goes on.
 
LOL...

AUSTIN, Texas, Nov 15 (Reuters) - If you can't beat them, buy them.

For years, a little-known company called Tooling & Equipment International (TEI) has helped Tesla (TSLA.O) push back the frontiers of "gigacasting", the process it pioneered to cast large body parts for cars in one piece to save time and money.
Until 2023, that is. TEI is now part of General Motors (GM.N) after agreeing a deal that may have flown under the radar but is a key part of the U.S. automaker's strategy to make up ground on Tesla, four people familiar with the transaction said.
By snapping up a specialist in sand casting techniques that accelerated the development of Tesla's gigacasting molds and allowed it to cast more complex components, GM has jump-started its own push to make cars more cheaply and efficiently at a time when Tesla is racing to roll out a $25,000 EV, the people said.
With TEI gone, Tesla is leaning more heavily on three other casting specialists it has used in Britain, Germany and Japan to develop the huge molds needed for the millions of cheaper EVs it plans to make in the coming decade, the four people said.


 
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I will be open about my finances and when a price drops on any of my consumables for 3 consecutive months, I will list it here.
My vehicles are getting older and less valuable but my insurance is not coming down proportionately with the depreciation of the vehicle.
Medicare is increasing my premium and paying less on my deductibles.
The list goes on.

My monthly health insurance premiums from my paycheck are going up 10% in 2024 (just enrolled) I have a good health plan at my employer, but DAMN 10%
and
my out of pocket maximum (which I hit every year, I have a daughter with a serious medical condition) went up 10%
and
My employer cut the $500 they were 'giving me' in my HSA account down to $250

add all that up and FUCK ME that is a huge transfer of cost to me :( (it's $1000)

Every single bill I have went up 10 to 25% in 2023 (water, power, property tax, insurance, food, etc, all the basic need to live stuff)

Looks like more coming in 2024

but hey look you can buy a 32" Tv with a shitty picture cheaper at walmart now than you could this time last year, so everything is fine...
 
My monthly health insurance premiums from my paycheck are going up 10% in 2024 (just enrolled) I have a good health plan at my employer, but DAMN 10%
and
my out of pocket maximum (which I hit every year, I have a daughter with a serious medical condition) went up 10%
and
My employer cut the $500 they were 'giving me' in my HSA account down to $250

add all that up and FUCK ME that is a huge transfer of cost to me :( (it's $1000)

Every single bill I have went up 10 to 25% in 2023 (water, power, property tax, insurance, food, etc, all the basic need to live stuff)

Looks like more coming in 2024

but hey look you can buy a 32" Tv with a shitty picture cheaper at walmart now than you could this time last year, so everything is fine...
Many of us here are all "on the same page"... some choose to just follow or lurk, and that's OK.
We are all coupled to the United States Dollar (USD). The Government and Wall Street want to call it "inflation".
I call it the loss of purchasing power of the USD.
Regardless of the label, what is happening is not sustainable.
We are living in a country that has a maxed out credit card and is saying everything is OK. Everything is not OK.
1700184612583.jpeg
 
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Shit my auto insurance for 3 cars (all adult drivers) went from $300 a month to $450 a month in the last 2 billing cycles, beginning to question if full coverage is worth it anymore. $450 a month will fix a lot of shit.

When I called the agent he said "sorry bud cost of things is up, shop around if you are unhappy" I did, only found 1 out of 4 cheaper and only by a few dollars. Insane.
 
you have to think of all the illegals driving around without insurance, causing accidents, and walking away. And.. the scam artists getting into accidents on purpose to go after your insurance.

In Texas, you can put up a 60K bond and skip insurance.. but that sounds a little risky as well... but maybe it's starting to make sense.
 
Shit my auto insurance for 3 cars (all adult drivers) went from $300 a month to $450 a month in the last 2 billing cycles, beginning to question if full coverage is worth it anymore. $450 a month will fix a lot of shit.

When I called the agent he said "sorry bud cost of things is up, shop around if you are unhappy" I did, only found 1 out of 4 cheaper and only by a few dollars. Insane.
You have stumbled upon the plan to crash the USD. The plan began with the elimination of "The Gold Standard" by Nixon in 1972.
So, here we are... In 1972 an ounce of gold could be purchased for $100 (+/-) and today an ounce of gold can be purchased for $2000 (+/-)
Eventually your USD will become worthless.

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My monthly health insurance premiums from my paycheck are going up 10% in 2024 (just enrolled) I have a good health plan at my employer, but DAMN 10%
and
my out of pocket maximum (which I hit every year, I have a daughter with a serious medical condition) went up 10%
and
My employer cut the $500 they were 'giving me' in my HSA account down to $250

add all that up and FUCK ME that is a huge transfer of cost to me :( (it's $1000)

Every single bill I have went up 10 to 25% in 2023 (water, power, property tax, insurance, food, etc, all the basic need to live stuff)

Looks like more coming in 2024

but hey look you can buy a 32" Tv with a shitty picture cheaper at walmart now than you could this time last year, so everything is fine...
Mine went up over 30% last year but next year is flat, must not be any more inflation for the railroads. Or they just overcharged on the last increase when they didn’t have to show the numbers, but this year they do…
 
Shit my auto insurance for 3 cars (all adult drivers) went from $300 a month to $450 a month in the last 2 billing cycles, beginning to question if full coverage is worth it anymore. $450 a month will fix a lot of shit.

When I called the agent he said "sorry bud cost of things is up, shop around if you are unhappy" I did, only found 1 out of 4 cheaper and only by a few dollars. Insane.
Mine went up significantly this year too, with the vehicle getting older and older.
 
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Mine went up significantly this year too, with the vehicle getting older and older.
I guess it's time to call "Bull Shit" on all those Government generated numbers, graphs and propaganda.
Remember those people generating that info are on the government payroll and get the COLA pay increase, paid medical, etc.
They say the recession has no effect on them.
Connect the dots.
 
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GEICO results are what saved Berkshire’s Q3 results for a solid operating income gain. You guys know how they did it, the whole insurance industry has pretty much done it. Rates shot up just like car values did, even more in many places.

I’ll admit, I’m not seeing it personally with USAA, but I’m sure it’s coming.
 
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Tea leaves:

Interesting trend over the past year. Copart (seller of wrecked cars, etc) is trending up as Ford and General Motor's trend down.
Consumer's are salvaging their wrecked cars because they can't afford to buy a new, replacement vehicle. Recession signal.

Ford and GM stock is down because they are unable to find their collective corporate asses with both hands and a flashlight.

Copart is up because late-model salvage parts are currently worth more than ever, and vehicles are much easier to "total" than ever before. Set the bags off in a 25 MPH tap and the car's going to the yard, but it's still stuffed full of valuable parts. Then you've got the issue with inconsistent title branding practices across various states; Copart offers rebuilders an opportunity to exploit that arbitrage. You could have an all-time record booming economy and Copart would still be doing great business.

There are plenty of potential recession signals. I don't think this is one of them.
 
GEICO results are what saved Berkshire’s Q3 results for a solid operating income gain. You guys know how they did it, the whole insurance industry has pretty much done it. Rates shot up just like car values did, even more in many places.

I’ll admit, I’m not seeing it personally with USAA, but I’m sure it’s coming.

A few factors are involved:

1) In many locations, insurance is a government-mandated service so the demand is largely disassociated from price.

2) Healthcare costs continue to increase, and people are more expensive to fix than cars.

3) Collision repair costs are insane, and for some older cars the parts are now unavailable so insuring an older car is no longer cheaper in many cases.

4) Drivers aren't getting any safer.

I'm unhappy with the situation but fortunately we can afford the costs. Many drivers cannot and I feel terrible for the young worker who's stuck with a $1000 annual bill for basic liability coverage on a 20-year-old beater.
 
Right before our very eyes... The US Government is losing $16 billion of taxpayer's money. No accountability and certainly not sustainable.

Nov 19 (Reuters) - Blackstone (BX.N) is the lead to win the $17 billion portfolio of commercial-property loans from the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp's (FDIC) sale of Signature Bank debt, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday.
In September, the FDIC was seeking buyers for the $33 billion commercial real estate loan portfolio of failed New York lender Signature Bank.
The bidding process has brought in several finance companies such as Starwood Capital Group and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.TO), according to the Bloomberg report.


 
PRAGUE, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Czech gunmaker Colt CZ Group (CZG.PR) has made a cash-and-stock merger offer to Vista Outdoor (VSTO.N), valuing the U.S. sporting and outdoor goods group's shares at a 16% premium.
The deal comes amid Vista's planned sale of its sporting products business to privately held Czech defence and civil manufacturing company Czechoslovak Group (CSG), announced in October in a $1.91 billion deal.
Colt CZ's tie-up offer values Vista at about $1.7 billion, according to Reuters calculations.
Vista said in a statement it had not made any decision about the $30 per share proposal, above its last closing price of around $25.75, though below a 2023 high of $33.78 hit in September.
Colt CZ said it proposed keeping the company together, scrapping plans to separate Vista at this time.


 
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Sure do wish they’d fire up the large frame AR platforms at Colt.
The one they had was proprietary.

My LMT top is proprietary but at least the bottom gives me options if I wanted to buy an upper.
 
They found out it was what people wanted so they probably came out with a gaudy commemorative in response.
It’s important to understand that Colt hates you as a customer. Once that is understood then all is good.

Also I’m pretty sure the lady who used to work at Colt and over tightened all 1911 grip screws from 2004-2015 is now in charge of tightening caps at Gatorade.

What are the foreigners going to do with Colt?
 
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It’s important to understand that Colt hates you as a customer. Once that is understood then all is good.

Also I’m pretty sure the lady who used to work at Colt and over tightened all 1911 grip screws from 2004-2015 is now in charge of tightening caps at Gatorade.

What are the foreigners going to do with Colt?

Guessing they make the 1911 double action with a decock lever and discontinue the original.

It’s been a dream for Europe since 1912.
 
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