Second, I don't think I am putting out anything that Mr. Wheeler or his MDs are not already seeing in the data and I put this out there so the community can chime in on possible drivers of this trend. I have my theories, but have not taken the time to analyze the impact of Rimfire and / or Regional series, Y/Y changes in match fees, or the schedule has had on match participation. Let's hear what the Hide thinks (that means you @Sheldon N ).
Interesting info, thanks for sharing. I'd not looked at any real match data for 2025 yet since I usually do that at the end of the year.
My initial thought is that perhaps what your data is showing is not a decline, but rather a dilution? There are a lot more Pro matches being added, and my guess is that new match additions are diluting the pool of shooter time/dollars so not as many people attend each individual match.
From past data 2020-2024, the total number of shooters going to 3 matches or more continues to be on a uptrend. The last three years the total number of shooters who shot even just 1 Pro series match (PRS members or not) has also increased.
Another data point I'd not looked at before, but you got me curious.... from my existing data I was able to quickly calculate how many total PRS Pro Series match slots were sold for each year. That's also on a 4 year uptrend.
A dilution effect might by the alternative competition options - more regional matches, more PRS/NRL22 matches, NRLH, etc. I seem to recall hearing that PRS membership continues to rise and the number of 1 day and 22 matches has drastically increased. If there's any downturn or slowdown in Pro matches this year it may just be a shift to other competition and not people giving up on the sport.
Personal experience, I am starting to look more at match entry fees as I think about the cost of matches. Lots of match entries are getting closer to $300 or more and I now have 6 pro series matches that I can drive to in my area. I wonder if that cost doesn't hamper growth and/or serve as a bit of a barrier for someone attending their first Pro match. The MD's set the price though, and supply and demand will work itself out in the long run.
Big picture, my guess is there's still growth in shooter numbers and match participation but that new matches additions are currently outpacing the available shooters.
