• Cold Bore Ritual Contest - Only a Few Hours Left To Enter!

    What’s your cold bore ritual, that one thing you always do before your first shot to set yourself up for success? Winner gets new limited edition Hide merch. Remember, subscribers have a better chance of winning!

    Join contest Subscribe

Latest activity

Hot Threads

Latest activity

 Posts Forum list
 

Filter

PortaJohn

L
Detroit_1 said:
Good discussion on Debt and Interest Rates from WolfStreet. Most of the debt (esp that $150T) just isn't going to be paid or at least not with any form of currency that has any purchasing power.

TLDR - current average cost of funds for the US is @ 3.4%. We have 6T of re-fi slated this year alone. (Using a 10yr Note as an example) on the roll, that debt is to be refi'd @ 200+ basis points more, driving the weighted average cost of funds. Some say we can go to 5% before it hits the fan. Regardless - this is the story of gradually, and then all at once.

Couple of other factoids:

For every $1.00 of stimulus (public money spent into the economy to generate more public wealth) the return is currently @ $0.15.
@ 19% of all income in America is transfer payments
@ 70% of the US Econ is Consumer Spending (*consider these last 2 together)
Current Debt to GDP is @ 130%. That rocket ship took off in 1981, and on a graph (regardless of games played under Clinton in the 1990s) it is has been a virtual straight line on the graph, @ 20 yrs we'll be at 200%.......unless of course the World tires of Modern Monetary Theory and WRC / Treasuries which can be confiscated via sanctions prior to that - kinda bet it does.
Click to expand...
150 trillion is low. If you include government debt, unfunded liabilities, various financial obligations (private debt and shadow banking) and DERIVATIVES it gets MUCH higher. Like in the quadrillion range according to some. It's an important distinction because it speaks directly to the debt market. There isn't enough dollars running around to cover all of the existing obligations. If/when it goes south there WILL be defaults. It doesn't even have to be in the quadrillion range to do that. Just the lowish trillions. It's important because the blowback onto the GDP should a significant black swan show up will be huge, which will in turn affect all manner of money flows to the governments of the world, not just the US.

We saw some of this unwinding in the aftermath of the GFC with the dark pools - it couldn't be fully determined who owned homes that were being repo'd. A few took it to the courts and won. If that were to happen at scale it will be catastrophic.

Your analysis of the declining return on stimulus is spot on. The only way out of this is either a financial reset or government default.
Click to expand...
  • Like
Reactions: gigamortis and Detroit_1

PortaJohn

D
babyguppy said:
Keeping the HUGE part quiet. 'unfunded liablilites'

Login to view embedded media
View attachment 8701178
Click to expand...
Good discussion on Debt and Interest Rates from WolfStreet. Most of the debt (esp that $150T) just isn't going to be paid or at least not with any form of currency that has any purchasing power.

TLDR - current average cost of funds for the US is @ 3.4%. We have 6T of re-fi slated this year alone. (Using a 10yr Note as an example) on the roll, that debt is to be refi'd @ 200+ basis points more, driving the weighted average cost of funds. Some say we can go to 5% before it hits the fan. Regardless - this is the story of gradually, and then all at once.

Couple of other factoids:

For every $1.00 of stimulus (public money spent into the economy to generate more public wealth) the return is currently @ $0.15.
@ 19% of all income in America is transfer payments
@ 70% of the US Econ is Consumer Spending (*consider these last 2 together)
Current Debt to GDP is @ 130%. That rocket ship took off in 1981, and on a graph (regardless of games played under Clinton in the 1990s) it is has been a virtual straight line on the graph, @ 20 yrs we'll be at 200%.......unless of course the World tires of Modern Monetary Theory and WRC / Treasuries which can be confiscated via sanctions prior to that - kinda bet it does.

ps - Jamie Dimon tells you the truth (if you want the Dollar to be worth something, someone needs to be willing to die for it, b/c nothing backs it but force):

He also mentioned the US dollar's potentially waning status as the leading world reserve currency, which has been an axiom since the end of World War II.

'I always get asked this question: Are we going to be the reserve currency? No. You know, if we are not the preeminent military and the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency. That’s a fact. Just read history,' he said.
Click to expand...
  • Like
Reactions: babyguppy and lariat

T.Rex Arms Meltdown

wvfarrier
kalashnikev said:
The father is the cult leader.

"The Botkin Clan" is much, much bigger than a plastic holster company. There's a for-profit church, a restaurant, books, media, and other affiliated businesses. The businesses are staffed by the flock- but they better be humble. There are "The Botkin Sisters" who do reality TV, "Botkin Brothers" who make holsters for the camera orsomethignlikethat... etc...

The whole story about how this kid became the Steve Jobs of plastic holsters with a batcave full of ninja gear through hard work and commitment is fun. I dig it.

In reality, it was the pooled resources of people being exploited by the cult.

Geoffrey Botkin is the cult leader, and there are no "boards" that exist beyond paper. If he outcast the weinerboy son, he's got a few replacements waiting in the wings.
Click to expand...
Wtf? Seriously????
Click to expand...
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: Baron23, Rookie and doubloon
Load more
Top Bottom
Back
Home
Forums
Merch
Alerts