I think that is accurate.
What I don't get here, is why they(the Ukraine) consider ceding any territory to Russia as a loss, or find it a non starter. The facts on the battle field as you mention are apparent. They were able to repel a full take over, in that regard they are successful. They have the shift west they wanted. Why risk all that they maintained, the 80% they kept, over the 20% they could not hold. They did break free of the hold the Kremlin had on them.
As messed up as this entire thing has been, to me that doesn't seem like the massive loss they play it as. Sounds like they for the most part got what they wanted.
So can we stop destroying every things and start rebuilding things.
The only thing that I can think of is that Ukraine really wanted this war. Sounds stupid right but they were being trained, equipped and supplied by NATO countries before the invasion in 2022, for the purpose IMO, to retake both break-away regions and Crimea. With how much they talk about Crimea, I suspect the US has some serious dough on the table for anyone who can deliver it from Russian occupation.
As much as I dislike Zelenskyy, he does have a figurative and literal gun pointed at his head from the people Putin wants to de-nazify. The first peace talks, that Boris Johnson fucked up were basically just Minsk 2, Russia wasn't prepared to gain control over LPR and DPR and it wasn't until late 2022 that these oblasts folded into Russia by "annexation".
looks like Ukraine has or is losing the air war. so,can't really hide what it is doing or it's strength at any spot.
looks like they are done for. just putting out a fire with gasoline.
There was a Ukrainian source that described "new" model defences, which are basically physical barriers like trenches, wire and mines that are seemingly defended solely by drones. It looks like where Russia made this recent advance there was fuck all troops on the ground to actually do anything. If that's not an indication of Ukraine's manpower issues, I don''t know what is.
Putin wants his land, just like he fk'd Georgia, Putin will fk Ukraine.
Putin won't give anything up,,because he'll lose face.
War won't end unless Ukraine agrees to give up their land. I'm sure Putin will push for a larger land grab.
Ukraine has been the bread basket to Europe and Russia for Centuries. Russia wants that basket back.
It might get paused, Putin will continue a build up and boom, Putin will find another excuse to make a land grab.
Nato's fk'd. EU can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag. Poland knows, poland is on it's own.
Right at the start of the war there were peace talks where Russia's position was basically just Minsk 2, ie Russia keeps Crimea forever but Luhansk and Donbas remain independent until the Ukraine government wasn't so fucked in the head, didn't support large amounts of ultranationalists and stopped murdering civilians in the east like a bunch of fucking spastics.
Once this happened, Luhansk and Donbas would have been folded back into Ukraine and everyone could move on as one happy, boarderlined retarded nation.
Boris Johnson fucked these peace talks by telling Ukraine they would have full security gurantees (boots on the ground) from not just the UK but also the US.
Russia isn't taking more than 4/5/6/7 Oblasts and even that number depends on Ukraines willingness to negotiate.
