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Stock Market

I don’t know. This is why I am not using the housing market as an indicator.

I believe what the institutions are after is the rent in perpetuity.
A somewhat different perspective on buying a house:
 
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LOL...
One day Chart for the DOW. Ever see a market run that flat in the final hour ? All that for a 0.05% increase for the day... Keep it green, at any cost.
big.chart

Advances2,7511,1382,242
Declines5122,071973
Unchanged130207209
New highs612625
New lows235836
 
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Payday from NVTA...

Sold 50% of my taxable position prior to earnings for 25% gain and the remaining after for 50%. Then I noticed the 275%+ rally and sold my whole HSA position at open today.
 
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Once again, I feel that it's necessary to point out that decreasing inflation != declining prices. We're celebrating a 8.5% CPI number. This is insanity.
 
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Once again, I feel that it's necessary to point out that decreasing inflation != declining prices. We're celebrating a 8.5% CPI number. This is insanity.
Wage price spiral is going to be a real issue. Everyone at my company is being hired at 5-10% more than last year. My GF just got an inflation raise of 7%. Fingers crossed my company does something, haha.
 
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Wage price spiral is going to be a real issue. Everyone at my company is being hired at 5-10% more than last year. My GF just got an inflation raise of 7%. Fingers crossed my company does something, haha.

Yeah, those yearly 3% raises that are supposed to cover both COLA and merit aren't going to cut it, even if inflation magically went to 0% next month (which it won't).

If wages get suppressed by increasing unemployment (a real possibility), then that's going to put a hurt on any discretionary spending.

Either way, it seems like a headwind.
 
Wage price spiral is going to be a real issue. Everyone at my company is being hired at 5-10% more than last year. My GF just got an inflation raise of 7%. Fingers crossed my company does something, haha.
Just one big game of "Musical Chairs" the faster everything churns the more difficult it is to find any real numbers.
The 10% raise and a COLA mean nothing when that pink slip shows up.....
Pink Slip = Welcome to reality
 
Wage price spiral is going to be a real issue. Everyone at my company is being hired at 5-10% more than last year. My GF just got an inflation raise of 7%. Fingers crossed my company does something, haha.
A TSLA question.... I posted a link to a Copart, Inc website where auto's that were "totaled" are auctioned off....
When a Tesla is totaled out and goes out with a "Salvage Title"... What is the position of Elon and his company ?... all warranty voided ? Can it be rebuilt by an authorized Tesla repair shop and regain it's warranty ?
What does the big TSLA rule book say ?
 
A TSLA question.... I posted a link to a Copart, Inc website where auto's that were "totaled" are auctioned off....
When a Tesla is totaled out and goes out with a "Salvage Title"... What is the position of Elon and his company ?... all warranty voided ? Can it be rebuilt by an authorized Tesla repair shop and regain it's warranty ?
What does the big TSLA rule book say ?
Tesla’s official policy is that “Tesla does not warrant the safety or operability of salvaged vehicles. Repairs performed to bring a salvaged vehicle back into service may not meet Tesla standards or specifications and that is why the vehicle is unsupported. Consequently, any failures, damages, or injuries occurring as a result of such repairs or continued operation of an unsupported vehicle are solely the responsibility of the vehicle owner.”

 
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These conversations have been about money.
Pause a moment to ponder the list.
images

Here in America, there is a shortage of these 10 things.
That’s because we need to remove the half that do not believe in those things.
 
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Walmart CFO:

“I'd say that what we're seeing is they are still relatively healthy. We've seen some changes in consumer behavior that I put in three categories. One is there's a trade down in both quality and quantity. So instead of buying deli meats, we're seeing things like canned tuna and chicken and even beans, as units were up over 25% in the quarter. They're buying smaller pack sizes to save money. We've seen an increase in the private brands growth effect, it's 2x for food what it was in the first quarter.”
 
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Walmart CFO:

“I'd say that what we're seeing is they are still relatively healthy. We've seen some changes in consumer behavior that I put in three categories. One is there's a trade down in both quality and quantity. So instead of buying deli meats, we're seeing things like canned tuna and chicken and even beans, as units were up over 25% in the quarter. They're buying smaller pack sizes to save money. We've seen an increase in the private brands growth effect, it's 2x for food what it was in the first quarter.”
Walmart has it down to a science....
 
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Hedge funds are getting increasingly skeptical about this big rally that broke out in the middle of a bear market.
Net short positions against the S&P 500 futures by hedge funds have reached a record $107 billion this week, according to calculations by Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. Shorting the S&P 500 futures is a common way to bet against the broader stock market but also could be part of a hedging strategy.
 
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Tesla’s official policy is that “Tesla does not warrant the safety or operability of salvaged vehicles. Repairs performed to bring a salvaged vehicle back into service may not meet Tesla standards or specifications and that is why the vehicle is unsupported. Consequently, any failures, damages, or injuries occurring as a result of such repairs or continued operation of an unsupported vehicle are solely the responsibility of the vehicle owner.”

What will be interesting with these and other cars that are highly "software" centric - what happens when they are no longer supported by OEM for upgrades, etc. I can still drive my 1970 Mustang even without OEM support but will cars eventually become unusable as the software/hardware is unsupportable just like we pitch phones, PCs, old software? Will we get notes from OEMS similar to cellular services that you must replace your old phone as network no longer supports?
 
What will be interesting with these and other cars that are highly "software" centric - what happens when they are no longer supported by OEM for upgrades, etc. I can still drive my 1970 Mustang even without OEM support but will cars eventually become unusable as the software/hardware is unsupportable just like we pitch phones, PCs, old software? Will we get notes from OEMS similar to cellular services that you must replace your old phone as network no longer supports?
That used to be called "Engineered Lifetime"..... I'm sure there is a more modern definition for that now.
Starting to see every shade tree mechanic shop buried in broke down vehicles... A sign of things to come.
"I can't afford to get my car repaired"......
 
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That used to be called "Engineered Lifetime"..... I'm sure there is a more modern definition for that now.
Starting to see every shade tree mechanic shop buried in broke down vehicles... A sign of things to come.
"I can't afford to get my car repaired"......
Been buying rigs that I can work on for a decade now. I made the mistake of selling my 86 F250 though. 300-6 and 4sp granny gear 4x4. I wish I still had it.
 
That used to be called "Engineered Lifetime"..... I'm sure there is a more modern definition for that now.
Starting to see every shade tree mechanic shop buried in broke down vehicles... A sign of things to come.
"I can't afford to get my car repaired"......
Went to local Ram dealer for oil change. Teenage girl who normally was "greeter" in showroom trying to man service department. Service manager quit, only one service writer and she was home sick. Guy ahead of me asked for appointment for a basic repair issue and was told it would be months. I left and went to Valvoline quick lube. Our 2019 Subaru Outback got hit at redlight - took 90 days to get parts to begin repair.
 
Went to local Ram dealer for oil change. Teenage girl who normally was "greeter" in showroom trying to man service department. Service manager quit, only one service writer and she was home sick. Guy ahead of me asked for appointment for a basic repair issue and was told it would be months. I left and went to Valvoline quick lube. Our 2019 Subaru Outback got hit at redlight - took 90 days to get parts to begin repair.
I am not being sarcastic:
A sign of the times. Plan accordingly. Don't allow someone else's problem to become your problem.
"Spare" has become a routine conversation among my friends. Spare parts, spare fuel, spare food.... The list is long.
 
Here is another reason I love Tesla and Enphase; one which isn't spoken of enough.


 
Never thought I'd ever see this in print:
Price volatility is a trader’s bread and butter, but in oil, volatility is becoming excessive, pushing traders away and making life harder for a lot of businesses that normally use oil hedges to secure some price stability that is vital for their operations. This is according to a Reuters analysis that notes oil prices have become so wild in their everyday swings that the usual suspects, such s hedge funds, are quitting the oil market in droves, with activity there falling to the lowest in seven years.



 
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Interesting scenario is building..... Worldwide. As the FED Reserve continues to raise their rates, the Chinese are lowering their rates....

China is going through a serious financial crisis... if/when it does collapse; they will invade Taiwan and bring the world down with them.
 
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Such small moves on a weekly basis seem symbolic. There is no way to measure the effect except for public sentiment. Didn't think China cared about that.
 
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Such small moves on a weekly basis seem symbolic. There is no way to measure the effect except for public sentiment. Didn't think China cared about that.
I'm sure high level CCP members make loads of money from bribes or embezzlement through the real estate market. If people stop paying mortgages and buying new ghost cities, the party ends for them.
 
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China is going through a serious financial crisis... if/when it does collapse; they will invade Taiwan and bring the world down with them.
China issued its first national drought alert of the year last week, after areas including Shanghai in the Yangtze Delta region and Sichuan in southwest China experienced weeks of extreme heat.

 
If.... and that's a Big If, the United States would have taken the money wasted in the Middle East and built a grid of high capacity water pipelines and pumping stations across America........ Lake Mead would be full and California would be the largest food producer in the world.

What do we have to show for that war ?
2332319-T-Boone-Pickens-Quote-I-know-what-people-say-that-water-s-a-lot.jpg
 
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If.... and that's a Big If, the United States would have taken the money wasted in the Middle East and built a grid of high capacity water pipelines and pumping stations across America........ Lake Mead would be full and California would be the largest food producer in the world.

What do we have to show for that war ?
2332319-T-Boone-Pickens-Quote-I-know-what-people-say-that-water-s-a-lot.jpg
If California didn't waste 100 billion or more on that bullet train and spent the money water storage or even that Israeli desalination technology they would have been better off.