• Watch Out for Scammers!

    We've now added a color code for all accounts. Orange accounts are new members, Blue are full members, and Green are Supporters. If you get a message about a sale from an orange account, make sure you pay attention before sending any money!

Stock Market

I was unaware of that SS option thanks for posting. Wonder how many folks take that option?
I doubt many folks take it since it reduces your monthly pay out and increasing monthly pay out is the reason most folks wait. Only reason would be if you need a chunk of cash for some reason but if you're in that tight of a bind, you've probably got bigger problems. Say your monthly pay out is $1700 - times 6 months max is only going to get you $10k.
 
....plus you get to pay .75% management fee for her expertise. I'd like to see the S&P at 5000 mid January.
 
....plus you get to pay .75% management fee for her expertise. I'd like to see the S&P at 5000 mid January.
I didn't dig into it to see what she charges, but what the heck.

I hear you on S&P. Not a technical trader, but I do follow a guy Avi Gilbert who is a pretty darn solid technical guy.....his track record since 2012 has been scary good. He thinks there is a small chance we could see a bit of a rough week this week, but definitely a Q1 hair cut. If memory serves last time I saw his S&P support level guesstimation for Q1 was about a 15% drawdown, but expects 5500 by year end 2022. I've actually sold off quite a few of my covid bottom bargain/rebound names to lock in some gravy. Don't plan on selling anything for Q1, but buying a few names if the sale is good enough.

What are your thoughts?
 
I doubt many folks take it since it reduces your monthly pay out and increasing monthly pay out is the reason most folks wait. Only reason would be if you need a chunk of cash for some reason but if you're in that tight of a bind, you've probably got bigger problems. Say your monthly pay out is $1700 - times 6 months max is only going to get you $10k.
Yea I literally had no idea....I guess at least it's an option.
 
What are your thoughts?

I'm older, been self employed since 1993, dump money into my SEP, pretty much debt free (small mortgage at 2.79%). What I do may not work for many. Back around 2000 I used to daytrade, I wrote a program to crawl yahoo finance - did fine, but a rising tide lifts all boats. I realized that the S&P beats most analysts, that's been good for the past decade. Yeah, the market's probably oversold and high, but they've been saying that for five years. Hold too much money on the side, lose out. I have holdings in PM's, that's been a loser investment. Real estate has been good.

I checked my market portfolio and currently I'm 80%% in the S&P (spy). 5% in cash, the rest in AAPL, AMZN, and F (ford). NVDA has been good, CAT not so. Again, easy to do well with all the pumping.

Last year, I was probably 70% in the S&P and held a decent stake in TSLA. That stake in TSLA made me about 120K. Since it was a short term cap gain, I got boned, but it left enough to buy my daughters new rides. It was a surprise. Took them to the park, gave them three random gift boxes with three random keys- hit the remote and see which one is yours. This is why I invest.,

One is a Nurse, one a LEO, the other a pharmaceutical researcher.


IMG_20210326_182333141.jpg


Put money away while you're young.
 
I'm older, been self employed since 1993, dump money into my SEP, pretty much debt free (small mortgage at 2.79%). What I do may not work for many. Back around 2000 I used to daytrade, I wrote a program to crawl yahoo finance - did fine, but a rising tide lifts all boats. I realized that the S&P beats most analysts, that's been good for the past decade. Yeah, the market's probably oversold and high, but they've been saying that for five years. Hold too much money on the side, lose out. I have holdings in PM's, that's been a loser investment. Real estate has been good.

I checked my market portfolio and currently I'm 80%% in the S&P (spy). 5% in cash, the rest in AAPL, AMZN, and F (ford). NVDA has been good, CAT not so. Again, easy to do well with all the pumping.

Last year, I was probably 70% in the S&P and held a decent stake in TSLA. That stake in TSLA made me about 120K. Since it was a short term cap gain, I got boned, but it left enough to buy my daughters new rides. It was a surprise. Took them to the park, gave them three random gift boxes with three random keys- hit the remote and see which one is yours. This is why I invest.,

One is a Nurse, one a LEO, the other a pharmaceutical researcher.


View attachment 7771030

Put money away while you're young.
Nice work congratulations...Debt-free is a beautiful thing. and what a neat experience that must've been with your daughters I cannot imagine! Know you are beaming proud of them looks like they are on their way in the next chapter of life.

I was wondering what are your thoughts on the S&P reaching 5000 in the short term and for 2022?
 
Last edited:
TSLA been pretty good to me in the past year or so. Can't wait for Germany and Texas to come online. Going to hold on to them for a bit longer.
 
TSLA been pretty good to me in the past year or so. Can't wait for Germany and Texas to come online. Going to hold on to them for a bit longer.

Seems to me that the market has already priced in the Berlin and Austin plants and then about 10-20 plants after that which aren't getting built due to a lack of financial capital (not that the capability to produce the needed physical capital exists, anyways). But that's rational analysis which stopped working long ago for this stock.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: S3th
Expect TSLA to do fine. I think Ford will grab the truck segment. (Holding that i lieu of TSLA). It was a deal at $13-$14. I'm not sure now, but I am cheap.

S&P historical Jan 1
2017 2200
2018 2700
2019 2500
2020 3200
2021 3700
~2022 4800

I see no incentive for Washington to quit pumping -- not their money. People talk about corrections and a 20% haircut, but for those that stayed out - we're up ~30% on the year. Have inflation cutting into that. That certainly affects some more than others (those not in homes, those buying cars, etc). Expect interest rates to rise, coupled with home prices - ouch.

I'm staying in the S&P, hopeful/expect 5000 by end of January.

Told my kids part of the reason for the gifts was that I was expecting them to invest any expected auto payments/repairs - that they would have made - into the market (or real estate). So I'm working with them on that. Work hard when you are young, so you can read "The Bear Pit" when you are older haha
 
Expect TSLA to do fine. I think Ford will grab the truck segment. (Holding that i lieu of TSLA). It was a deal at $13-$14. I'm not sure now, but I am cheap.

S&P historical Jan 1
2017 2200
2018 2700
2019 2500
2020 3200
2021 3700
~2022 4800

I see no incentive for Washington to quit pumping -- not their money. People talk about corrections and a 20% haircut, but for those that stayed out - we're up ~30% on the year. Have inflation cutting into that. That certainly affects some more than others (those not in homes, those buying cars, etc). Expect interest rates to rise, coupled with home prices - ouch.

I'm staying in the S&P, hopeful/expect 5000 by end of January.

Told my kids part of the reason for the gifts was that I was expecting them to invest any expected auto payments/repairs - that they would have made - into the market (or real estate). So I'm working with them on that. Work hard when you are young, so you can read "The Bear Pit" when you are older haha
Loaded up on Ford at $5 last year.
 
Market isn’t pulling back anytime soon. Not while the Fed is still pumping out money. Not good for inflation but extremely good for the market.

Historically, this week between Christmas and NY is the slowest of the year and Jan-April is the strongest.
If you’re putting money into stocks, it’s best to look into EV’s (electric vehicles) and semi conductors.
 
Expect TSLA to do fine. I think Ford will grab the truck segment. (Holding that i lieu of TSLA). It was a deal at $13-$14. I'm not sure now, but I am cheap.

S&P historical Jan 1
2017 2200
2018 2700
2019 2500
2020 3200
2021 3700
~2022 4800

I see no incentive for Washington to quit pumping -- not their money. People talk about corrections and a 20% haircut, but for those that stayed out - we're up ~30% on the year. Have inflation cutting into that. That certainly affects some more than others (those not in homes, those buying cars, etc). Expect interest rates to rise, coupled with home prices - ouch.

I'm staying in the S&P, hopeful/expect 5000 by end of January.

Told my kids part of the reason for the gifts was that I was expecting them to invest any expected auto payments/repairs - that they would have made - into the market (or real estate). So I'm working with them on that. Work hard when you are young, so you can read "The Bear Pit" when you are older haha
100% agree. Tapering is just slowing as well....they are still adding to their balance sheet monthly not ceasing purchases. I actually think the rates-hawk talk is just talk. Maybe 1% symbolic hikes? If they want to guarantee a full blown recession in short order great then start raising 50+ bps a quarter. If they were to act with rates that will actually combat their stated issue(which I think is BS they love inflation just repeating post WWII debt/GDP reduction). A significant amount of inflation is the only solution the federal government has to manage it's obligations. Powell already leaned that in 2018 he tightened and tapered and shaved 20% off indexes in a couple of months in a far less fragile scenario. The covid bears have missed out on one rip after another, but then again so have 50 years of bears.
 
Last edited:
Market isn’t pulling back anytime soon. Not while the Fed is still pumping out money. Not good for inflation but extremely good for the market.

Historically, this week between Christmas and NY is the slowest of the year and Jan-April is the strongest.
If you’re putting money into stocks, it’s best to look into EV’s (electric vehicles) and semi conductors.
The market will pull back when the companies run out of money to buy back their own stock.
 
Regarding S&P holdings - Something you might hold for years, remember short and long term cap gains. That keeps me from regularly trading that.
Absolutely. The closed end funds I sold were priced at over 10% premium to NAV and that is why I took the gravy. Typically b/t 10-15% premium to NAV people take profits and I didn't want to leave that coin on the table just for the yield which was nothing to jump up and down about.....I bought both of them specifically for cap gains ride off the covid spaz end of the world doomers sale appreciation. Plenty of better places to park the money which I did this morning in a Pimco offering and an mREIT which were on sale. Here's to a great 2022.
 
Interesting... Did you short those on the way down ?
No, I don't short. I did sell out of a portion of my ENPH above $215 but have since repurchased all shares that I sold for $175 and under. NVTA and TDOC are new/newer positions. I would like to add BEAM alongside my NVTA as my genomic play.
 
....plus you get to pay .75% management fee for her expertise. I'd like to see the S&P at 5000 mid January.
ARKK is down 11.51% in the last 5 days alone and SARK(the ETF that shorts ARKK) is up 11.43%. This is super interesting to watch from the sidelines. None of the holdings either ticker trades is anything I invest in, but I do enjoy seeing these kinds of pissing matches like Tuttle vs Wood. My fav so far was Ackman v Icahn in the Herbalife war. Watching Ackman's conference call unfold, SP and subsequent fallout was amazing. If memory serves Icahn took just over $1b and Ackman lost just under $1b with his short positions when it was all said and done.
 
ARKK is down 11.51% in the last 5 days alone and SARK(the ETF that shorts ARKK) is up 11.43%. This is super interesting to watch from the sidelines. None of the holdings either ticker trades is anything I invest in, but I do enjoy seeing these kinds of pissing matches like Tuttle vs Wood. My fav so far was Ackman v Icahn in the Herbalife war. Watching Ackman's conference call unfold, SP and subsequent fallout was amazing. If memory serves Icahn took just over $1b and Ackman lost just under $1b with his short positions when it was all said and done.

This sort of thing is the billionaire equivalent of Bear Pit pissing matches. Highly entertaining indeed for us plebes, but I bet it kinda sucks to be a mid-level executive at one of those companies who has way too much of his net worth wrapped up in company stock, and get nearly wiped out because some dudes who have never stepped foot onto company property get into an ego-measuring contest.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
This sort of thing is the billionaire equivalent of Bear Pit pissing matches. Highly entertaining indeed for us plebes, but I bet it kinda sucks to be a mid-level executive at one of those companies who has way too much of his net worth wrapped up in company stock, and get nearly wiped out because some dudes who have never stepped foot onto company property get into an ego-measuring contest.
No question Ackman/Icahn was insane a true pissing match that would have been quite a queasy world for all involved. I'm keeping a passive eye on the SARK etf story as inflation keeps it's path with likely interest rate bumps coming. Doesn't seem like the outward warring with jabs at each person like Herbalife, but I'm guessing Cathy Wood and Mr. Tuttle aren't having lunch today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
S&P 500 spanks most hedge fund returns year over year. No need to pay a fund manager, and dividends are cool.

Buy the S&P constantly

Buy quality individual stocks.

Sell premium on the S&P 500, Apple, Tesla, and Amazon to retard bears that can only afford options. Laugh as the market runs them over.

Right now it’s a stealth bear market held up by the indexes. I’ve had fun shorting all the turd shit meme stocks. Covered a bunch over the last 2 weeks.

Buy strength, short turds, sell premium to all the wannabe Michael Burrys who short indexes like idiots.
 
Just added to ENPH & TSLA
OK, I'll bite.


I have followed ENPH casually. What I am missing is they don't appear to have anything "patentable". While the technology is improved, they have nothing that their competition can't provide. Started in 1997 and has only 7 employees. Revenue of about half a million $.

Do you work for them ?
 
OK, I'll bite.


I have followed ENPH casually. What I am missing is they don't appear to have anything "patentable". While the technology is improved, they have nothing that their competition can't provide. Started in 1997 and has only 7 employees. Revenue of about half a million $.

Do you work for them ?
I would go look at their recent 10Q to get an accurate revenue figure. Additionally, they have over 400 patents.
 
A very broad observation.

Many of the "Foreign Markets" (Europe, Asia, etc) are fairing much better than the US Markets. Countries that have survived many more wars, famines and political uprisings than the Untied States. No, they are not outperforming the SP500 but showing more resilience. So are their currencies. Interesting times.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Darkside-Six
This recent pullback is looking to provide a fantastic opportunity. TLSA under $750 & ENPH under $100 is going to take all of my cash. I realized some AAPL gains to free up a few ten thousand of cash to aid in this dip-buying.
 
Well today was certainly an odd one. I could have done without last week though.
Late run up on the Dow was "Buying to cover". Even getting a bit to volatile for the shorts.
Big jump in Home Depot is what moved the close of the Dow above water.
Lots of stocks moved negative today. But, lots of traders made $$$ today.
 
holy shit the markets closed UP... LOL

I gave up and went and worked on a car about 1pm after making like 15% day trading some VIX ETF's and then getting into some AMC...

I think the S&P was down like 110 or 120 when I gave up. The good getting was early in the day.
 

I thought it was “lose a little on every transaction, but make up for it in volume”

LOL

Seriously though, about 18 months ago started a directed investment account in my 401K at work. Kind of limited in what I can buy, but have been putting 10% of my new contributions since then (maxed out every year) into gold, precious metals mining, and a couple straight commodities funds. Have been up and down on it, but I think that insurance is about to pay off.

Sadly…

Also bought a bit more silver and gold (and a lot of other semi-precious metals like lead, copper, and brass!) over the last several years too. Might be too late to go whole hog down that path right now, but hard assets, property, and investing in productive businesses (i.e. more conservative investments) seems the way to go for the foreseeable future.

There will be a lot of buying opportunities in the stock market, but I wouldn’t bet my retirement on it right now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
holy shit the markets closed UP... LOL

I gave up and went and worked on a car about 1pm after making like 15% day trading some VIX ETF's and then getting into some AMC...

I think the S&P was down like 110 or 120 when I gave up. The good getting was early in the day.
Doubtful that will occur two days in a row.... but, interesting times now
 
Appears ENPH had support back in May at 120...... but, it was a different world back then.... Might get a bounce
I am planning to sell puts after tomorrow's meeting if the market sells off. I am comfortable buying at current levels. However, I don't think the bottom is anywhere in and once the market draws down it will pull everything with it. I'll likely focus on TSLA and ENPH is pricing is good enough. If not, I'll spread my wings and purchase a few others. TDOC is looking great.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
Well today was certainly an odd one. I could have done without last week though.
Buying income on sale has been welcome as my focus is value/dividend space. Put my idle cash in SARK ETF that shorts Cathie Wood the last 2 weeks it's still been on a rip. Got it out to put into some BDCs, REITs and financials though to adjust my sector allocations.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
I just enjoy the highs and lows of buying Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and Vangard S&P 500 index.

I rest easy.

Goat
You have to love Vanguard's fee structure as well. VTSAX has an expense ratio of .04, but VTSMX is still doable at .14. Understanding fees long term is akin to grasping a compounding interest model as a youngster. Doesn't seem like much until you let time work on it then it's 'whoa!'.
 
It’s been a rough month, I’ve lost $40k so far. But I also play the long game so keep putting in and it will even itself out over a period of time.

I am interested in Vanguard though. I have a lot in mutual funds and fees are killing me.
 
You have to love Vanguard's fee structure as well. VTSAX has an expense ratio of .04, but VTSMX is still doable at .14. Understanding fees long term is akin to grasping a compounding interest model as a youngster. Doesn't seem like much until you let time work on it then it's 'whoa!'.
You can't go wrong with Vanguard regarding their fees. When I first started investing into a Roth IRA at 23 years old, I was unaware of expenses and fees. I just went with the what quite a few unsuspecting people my age say "I just invest in what my guy told me." Well, by doing that I was paying a 5% fee on every buy transaction into the fund for my Roth. And the fund didn't come near to what the Stock Market or the S&P 500 was doing.
 
It’s been a rough month, I’ve lost $40k so far. But I also play the long game so keep putting in and it will even itself out over a period of time.

I am interested in Vanguard though. I have a lot in mutual funds and fees are killing me.
Check out John Bogle's book "Little Book of Common Sense Investing."

John Bogle is the founder of Vanguard.

Goat
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigTex
You can't go wrong with Vanguard regarding their fees. When I first started investing into a Roth IRA at 23 years old, I was unaware of expenses and fees. I just went with the what quite a few unsuspecting people my age say "I just invest in what my guy told me." Well, by doing that I was paying a 5% fee on every buy transaction into the fund for my Roth. And the fund didn't come near to what the Stock Market or the S&P 500 was doing.
Yup it's a killer and the earlier one catches it the exponentially better off they will be out yonder. I've been with Vanguard since 2008 or 9 and am very pleased with them. Their options portal could be a little more user friendly, but I don't do a ton of options trading so not a big deal. Some occasional covered calls and cash secured puts to get paid while I wait for a sale. I mean that's literally all I'd change with them....software update maybe? Best wishes for your mix and a solid return in 2022.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
It’s been a rough month, I’ve lost $40k so far. But I also play the long game so keep putting in and it will even itself out over a period of time.

I am interested in Vanguard though. I have a lot in mutual funds and fees are killing me.
Don't beat yourself up too bad......... Everyone, and I mean everyone (fund managers, traders, options guy's, etc) is in uncharted territory. Between the pandemic, Ukraine, politics, supply chains, etc..... No one can pin down the arrival of the nest Black Swan....
 
I am likely going to buy a bunch of DMS. My Schwab ETFs are otherwise where most of the stock money is unless I want to "play the game".

Sold some stock at highs late last year and am presently making the poor financial decision to build a rifle... actually two.